The upcomming Dead of EOS DSLR / EF-line

[Maximilian]

EOS M5 II will fully replace and eclipse SL Rebel line. much higher capabilities in a smaller package.

And at much higher price!
And until now I am not convinced to change to EVF.
It will take another few years until I am pleased with EVF - maybe the new Canon R already does. M5 (Mk I) didn't.

 

[Maximilian]

EVFs still visually suck compared to OVF.

But for studio, stills and landscape it is okay.
That's what I've meant. I suppose you can agree here.
Personally I am into action, animal, sports and for me until now EVF does not work.

 

[Graphic.Artifacts]

As much as I think the R mount shows promise, Canon have not yet demonstrated that they can make a mirrorless camera that can perform at a level similar to their DSLR's. That may be by choice but I suspect it is entirely possible that they just don't have the capability to do so at this time.

The primary roadblock at this time appears to be processing power. It doesn't look as though any of Canon's current processors can keep up with the demands of advanced mirrorless. They really have to start making progress in this area or they are going to be falling further behind not catching up. When you look at what the latest offering from Panasonic, Sony and Fuji can do with their onboard processing you can see pretty quickly that Canon and Nikon aren't really playing in the same sandbox. I think this is an area where their late start is holding them back. Yes, they've done well with the M series but the bar was pretty low and most users relatively forgiving on their performance. . Convincing a current 5DIV user to trade in for a laggy camera with 5D classic frame rates is going to be a challenge. Let alone 1 series users.

My guess is that they will sell a bunch of these to V-Loggers, MLC curious and possibly up-graders from the M and rebel lines but I think most daily DSLR users will choke on the lower responsiveness. Given how infrequently Canon upgrades bodies I'd say it will be a while before the R's feel competitive with the DSLR's. Even Canon appears to be selling the system as an add-on rather than a replacement. I think it's the most interesting thing Canon has done since Cinema EOS but I wouldn't expect to see significant adoption overnight.

 

[unfocused]

As much as I think the R mount shows promise, Canon have not yet demonstrated that they can make a mirrorless camera that can perform at a level similar to their DSLR's. That may be by choice but I suspect it is entirely possible that they just don't have the capability to do so at this time...

...I think most daily DSLR users will choke on the lower responsiveness. Given how infrequently Canon upgrades bodies I'd say it will be a while before the R's feel competitive with the DSLR's. Even Canon appears to be selling the system as an add-on rather than a replacement. I think it's the most interesting thing Canon has done since Cinema EOS but I wouldn't expect to see significant adoption overnight.

Yes. If the "R" system does eventually replace the DSLR, it will happen only when that replacement offers no compromises from the DSLR-EF system. How long that takes will depend totally on Canon and on consumer demand. At this point I don't think anyone can accurately predict if mirrorless full frame will remain just a niche within a niche or if it will eventually supplant DSLRs.

But, I believe it won't be enough to have adapters that allow "R" cameras to mount EF lenses. They will have to make adapters that allow DSLRs to mount "R" lenses. When the 1DxIII, 5DV and 7DIII are released, buyers will need the assurance that they can mount their "R" lenses on these new bodies, just as "R" buyers can mount EF lenses on their mirrorless bodies.

 

[fullstop]

if mirrorless full frame will remain just a niche within a niche or if it will eventually supplant DSLRs.

it will. Totally supplant. All mirrorslapping. No crystal-ball reading needed for this.

 

[Don Haines]

That's an odd opinion. I don't think creating a new line and saying they are doing it for greater freedom in lens design and to utilize new tech is screwing customers. Who's been screwed? I have what I have and it still works fine. I don't believe adding an adapter (12mm thicknes? Not sure) will impact image quality or performance. That distance is already there with a DSLR. So where is the screwing taking place?

Lots of people have to take a terribly negative line of thinking. I don't believe anyone gets screwed here except the people who choose to believe they are being screwed... which, come to think of it, might actually just be wishful thinking. Maybe not negative after all! Just hopeful!

BTW: Nobody is "forced" into buying anything. My 70-200 is 5 years old. It still works fine. I won't be "forced" to buy new for many years to come. Same with my camera body. Even then, it won't be "forced".

Actually, Canon went out of their way to make sure that existing EF lens holders would not get screwed.

Optically, there is no practical difference between an EF lens mounted of an EF camera and the same lens mounted on an R camera through an adapter, except with that adapter you can add an extra control ring (just like on the R lenses), or, you can get the other adapter and slide in a rear mounted filter...... a capacity that the R lenses do not have!

What the R mount brought to the table is faster communications between camera and lens, which translates into better IS..... It does not make your existing lens worse on a R camera, the IS performance should remain the same...... what it does mean is that NEW lenses can be even better!

 

[dtaylor]

it will. Totally supplant. All mirrorslapping. No crystal-ball reading needed for this.

EVFs have to improve. So does target acquisition and tracking. (Not AI subject identification tracking. Mirrorless is ahead there. Just plain, brutal, subject under AF point is fast approaching tracking.)

Again, MILC sales aren't even close to DSLR sales. And the initial rapid growth leveled off a while back. People predicting the imminent death of 'mirror slappers' never seem to look at what the consumer is actually buying.

We will see if these new bodies cause a major shift in CIPA stats. But I doubt it.

 

[Ozarker]

Yes. If the "R" system does eventually replace the DSLR, it will happen only when that replacement offers no compromises from the DSLR-EF system. How long that takes will depend totally on Canon and on consumer demand. At this point I don't think anyone can accurately predict if mirrorless full frame will remain just a niche within a niche or if it will eventually supplant DSLRs.

But, I believe it won't be enough to have adapters that allow "R" cameras to mount EF lenses. They will have to make adapters that allow DSLRs to mount "R" lenses. When the 1DxIII, 5DV and 7DIII are released, buyers will need the assurance that they can mount their "R" lenses on these new bodies, just as "R" buyers can mount EF lenses on their mirrorless bodies.

I don't believe there will ever be an RF to EF mount. Can't take away that added flange distance the adapter would give in that case. Can't take away the extra flange distance in camera either. Well, somebody may come up with a speed booster that adds more glass, but not Canon.

 

[fullstop]

We will see if these new bodies cause a major shift in CIPA stats. But I doubt it.

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201807_e.pdf

lookat the CIPA numbers. DSLRs in continued decline, Mirrorfree ILC shipments for Jan-july 2018 now already at 37% globally (in units) and 43% (in yen value).

"production" numbers show a lot more mirrorfree cameras produced than shipments = these cameras are hitting markets now.

depending on availability of new mirrorfree FF ILCs (abd lenses) from Canon, Nikon, Panasonic, Sony i expect parity in shipments around mid 2019, at he latest for full-year 2019.

from there on transition will further accelerate and progress fast.

also look at my table with my expectations for future upgrades to Canon DSLRs yet to come. it does not really extend beyond another 2-3 years, except 1DX (mainly for "nostalgic reasons", just like a film 1D camera was kept around for many years).

 

[moreorless]

As much as I think the R mount shows promise, Canon have not yet demonstrated that they can make a mirrorless camera that can perform at a level similar to their DSLR's. That may be by choice but I suspect it is entirely possible that they just don't have the capability to do so at this time.

The primary roadblock at this time appears to be processing power. It doesn't look as though any of Canon's current processors can keep up with the demands of advanced mirrorless. They really have to start making progress in this area or they are going to be falling further behind not catching up. When you look at what the latest offering from Panasonic, Sony and Fuji can do with their onboard processing you can see pretty quickly that Canon and Nikon aren't really playing in the same sandbox. I think this is an area where their late start is holding them back. Yes, they've done well with the M series but the bar was pretty low and most users relatively forgiving on their performance. . Convincing a current 5DIV user to trade in for a laggy camera with 5D classic frame rates is going to be a challenge. Let alone 1 series users.

My guess is that they will sell a bunch of these to V-Loggers, MLC curious and possibly up-graders from the M and rebel lines but I think most daily DSLR users will choke on the lower responsiveness. Given how infrequently Canon upgrades bodies I'd say it will be a while before the R's feel competitive with the DSLR's. Even Canon appears to be selling the system as an add-on rather than a replacement. I think it's the most interesting thing Canon has done since Cinema EOS but I wouldn't expect to see significant adoption overnight.

Honestly what I'm seeing from Canon and especially Nikon seems like the opposite, there really not very far if at all behind Sony and indeed their EVF implementation is being talked up as superior to Sony that doesn't offer full resolution when shooting, only in playback.

 

[dtaylor]

lookat the CIPA numbers. DSLRs in continued decline, Mirrorfree ILC shipments for Jan-july 2018 now already at 37% globally (in units) and 43% (in yen value).

So MILCs gained 1.48% marketshare year-over-year for the sales period of Jan-Jul. (It was 64.32% vs. 35.68% in the same period 2017.) And that's with a year that has been heavy on new MILC bodies but light on new DSLRs.

OH NO! DSLRS ARE IN FREE FALL! THE END IS NEAR! At this rate it will only take 42 years for MILCs to push DSLRs from the ILC market.

depending on availability of new mirrorfree FF ILCs (abd lenses) from Canon, Nikon, Panasonic, Sony i expect parity in shipments around mid 2019, at he latest for full-year 2019.

If this rate were to hold then MILCs wouldn't achieve parity until 2035.

Note that I am not making these predictions. I'm just pointing out how your rhetoric does not match the numbers you quoted. And how slim the shifts have been towards MILCs recently.

My very rough prediction is that we are still years away from MILC sales parity, and more years after that from the last production DSLR. A couple new FF MILCs from Canon and Nikon will not dramatically change this. Not when the majority of sales are in crop. And not with those feature/price points.

At the end of 2019 DSLRs will still represent the majority of ILC shipments absent an Earth shattering advancement on features/price. What would be "Earth shattering"? Imagine if the EOS R was 50mp FF with DPAF, 16ev DR, 20 fps, FF 4k/60, and sold for $999 with EF adapter. Oh, and the AF system beat a 1DX II in all respects, plus it was water resistant to 10m.

Not happening.

 

[fullstop]

well, brace for impact. 2019 will be the year when tables will be flipped on slapping mirrors.

 

[fullstop]

brw. while we are CIPA stats: have a look at the interchangeable lens table as well, especially the ratios "lenses 135 format and up" vs. "crop lenses" - in units and more so in value.

and think about why we (soon) have 5 suppliers instead of inly 1 offering new "FF" lens mounts and new native lenses. a lot of customers abd money just waiting to be milked with RF, Z, FE lenses - at 2k, 3k, 5k a pop.

transition will happen very fast as all makers will be pumping out new L (uxury) and GM (great moneymaker) lenses for their mirrorfree mounts.

 

[Keith_Reeder]

BTW: Nobody is "forced" into buying anything. My 70-200 is 5 years old. It still works fine. I won't be "forced" to buy new for many years to come. Same with my camera body. Even then, it won't be "forced".

What? Canon didn't come to your door in the dead of night and threaten to shoot your dog if you didn't upgrade?

Happens to JPCanon all the time, apparently...

 

[Keith_Reeder]

But for studio, stills and landscape it is okay..

So they're currently the Mark Knopfler of the viewfinder world - very good at being limited and mediocre...

 

[scipion]

With the launch of EOS R and the RF mount, my prediction will be, that we will see no more new Canon DSLR's except from maybe a new 5D and a new 1D meant for professionals.

I just killed a goat and read his entrails, and it predicts the contrary

well I have still to understand why this particular new body will do that, knowing that Sony's offer is around since years and a majority of us did not choose it.
I do a lot of sport and wild life photos, I am not interested. I tried and did not like it, at least over my reflex cameras. Excellent technology for sure, but well this was my decision, and the one of many of us since now...
In addition Sony's products are better. So why I would buy this one?! Because this is Canon and there is the same battery that I use in my 7D and 5D? Well this is rather thin...

I am evidently certain they will be a marked for this new product, that is for sure. It will appeal to the same that bought Sony. Also you have to keep in mind the price factor.
As far as I understand, Canon market strategy is to occupy all segments, and segment his offer within. that is what they are doing now, business as usual.
so letting down a segment in which Canon is the true master would be a rather strange decision.

 

[BillB]

well, let's play: which of the following future Canon EOS mirrorslapper models do you think we'll still see ... ?

My expectation is:

*Slappy End* is near.

Part of the puzzle is what DSLR production Nikon will have down the road. There may be room for one DSLR manufacturer for longer than there is for two, but that would be more about keeping production going than it would be about introducing new models.

 

[Kit.]

So they're currently the Mark Knopfler of the viewfinder world - very good at being limited and mediocre...

I wish I could do something as "limited and mediocre" as "Telegraph Road".

 

[neuroanatomist]

well, brace for impact. 2019 will be the year when tables will be flipped on slapping mirrors.

Yeah. Just like in 2014. Then in 2015. Then in...well, you get the idea (hopefully).

 

[MartinF.]

I just killed a goat and read his entrails, and it predicts the contrary

well I have still to understand why this particular new body will do that, knowing that Sony's offer is around since years and a majority of us did not choose it.
I do a lot of sport and wild life photos, I am not interested. I tried and did not like it, at least over my reflex cameras. Excellent technology for sure, but well this was my decision, and the one of many of us since now...
In addition Sony's products are better. So why I would buy this one?! Because this is Canon and there is the same battery that I use in my 7D and 5D? Well this is rather thin...

I am evidently certain they will be a marked for this new product, that is for sure. It will appeal to the same that bought Sony. Also you have to keep in mind the price factor.
As far as I understand, Canon market strategy is to occupy all segments, and segment his offer within. that is what they are doing now, business as usual.
so letting down a segment in which Canon is the true master would be a rather strange decision.

Don't misunderstand me, I sure hope you are right. I love SLR /DSLR. I love the OVF. I love the look and feel of a DSLR. I am not a Mirrorless fanboy. Not at all.
But even as I understand from at technology viewpoint that Canon evented a new mount, I am so much disappointed about it.

In 1987 with the release of the new EOS system an EF mount Canon released 14(!) new EOS bodies in 5 year and only 1 new body with the old FD mount (in 1990).
They released 13(!) new EF lenses in the first year (1987) - and that was the end of the FD mount. (and the future for my little FD collection of lenses):
Will it go as fast this time. I don't know. I do not hope so. I love my 6D, 1D and retired 400D. I love my EF lenses. But Canon can move fast if they want to.
The release of new EF lenses show some commitment to the EOS/EF system - but time will show. If we see a new 7D mkIII and a new 90D next year, and a 5DmkV in a few years - then the system will probably live as long as customers buy them.