What happens if Canon and Nikon enter FF mirrorless in different price points?

[Aussie shooter]

since neither of them will be able to match Sony's performance,

What makes you think so?

Does Sony hold any specific patents making achieving this performance impossible for competitors?

I think it would be better to have said 'since neither of them will be able to match Sony's spec sheet'. I have little doubt that real life 'performance' will be better than Sony since performance is measured in a lot of ways a spec sheet is incapable of quantifying.

 

[Kit.]

And still, "will not be able" or "will not want to"?

 

[BillB]

Both companies will be coming out with something marketed competitively against the market leader, Sony's a7III. Probably the price will be lower, since neither of them will be able to match Sony's performance, so they will need to come in at a lower price point to compete. The a7III pricing was probably set at what it is as a pre-emptive shot by Sony, to make the introductory FF cameras from Canikon a bitter pill to swallow. It is unlikely that the high end DSLR set will be willing to part with their systems for a new MILC mount, so they will need to start off at the low end IMO, and that creates certain limitations. That is what I think will happen.

A FF Canon mirrorless will be able use EF lenses, either adapted or native. For persons who have EF lenses that should be an edge. Others will have the choice between going with Canon lenses or Sony lenses. Not sure that Canon has to undersell the A7III, especially with the Canon touchscreen interface and a fully articulated screen. With the A7III, Sony is already underselling their A7R models. I wonder how that is working out for them.

 

[Mikehit]

Both companies will be coming out with something marketed competitively against the market leader, Sony's a7III. Probably the price will be lower, since neither of them will be able to match Sony's performance, so they will need to come in at a lower price point to compete. The a7III pricing was probably set at what it is as a pre-emptive shot by Sony, to make the introductory FF cameras from Canikon a bitter pill to swallow. It is unlikely that the high end DSLR set will be willing to part with their systems for a new MILC mount, so they will need to start off at the low end IMO, and that creates certain limitations. That is what I think will happen.

Despite Sony being (supposedly) technological superior for the last 5-7 years they have not made any real dent in CaNikon sales positions. This demonstrates two things: firstly that CaNikon have a massively loyal following, and secondly that the much-trumpeted benefits of mirrorless and all the gizmos that SOny introduce are not as important to the market as a whole as people like you like to think.

So do Canon need to be 'competitive'. It depends what you mean by competitive. People don't buy into a camera, they buy into a system and in the case of Canon that means ergonomics that people know and trust, it means a level of support that amateurs and pros can rely on, it means access to all the lenses and accessories (flash, remote controls) that you need to cover any photo situation, for many pros it means excellent telephotos and super telephotos.
Sony has caught up in many of those factors but only in the last 2 years - and because it is so recent they do not have a track record yet that people can say 'yep, Sony is there'.

So, for Sony the body is everything to get people to buy into it. For Canon it is about the least important. So all they need is for the body to fit within the current Canon system, provide continuity so people don't need a whole new learning curve and it needs do the things that 95% of the people need it to do....which is the basics.
Things like auto-focus bracketing (now seen on the D850) is something that makes people think 'that's cool' but in reality very few will use.

I guess you could say, that Sony is great body but as a system needs to step up its market approach to become competitive.

 

[melgross]

What happens if Nikon enters the market on one end of FF and Canon enters on the opposite, i.e. a pricey mirrorless D850 comes out around the same time as a modest mirrorless 6D2, or the D610 line is refreshed as a $1999 mirrorless setup while Canon puts out some $4k 5DS2 flavored mirrorless rig?

Curious to see (if Canon and Nikon don't enter the market with multiple price points right away) if people freak out that the first offering is all they are going to get and it wasn't the price point / feature set that they've wanted.

Would either company publicly reassure folks that 'this is just the first body and others are coming' or will they button their lips to get folks to focus their wallets on what is currently being released?

- A

Both companies will be coming out with something marketed competitively against the market leader, Sony's a7III. Probably the price will be lower, since neither of them will be able to match Sony's performance, so they will need to come in at a lower price point to compete. The a7III pricing was probably set at what it is as a pre-emptive shot by Sony, to make the introductory FF cameras from Canikon a bitter pill to swallow. It is unlikely that the high end DSLR set will be willing to part with their systems for a new MILC mount, so they will need to start off at the low end IMO, and that creates certain limitations. That is what I think will happen.

The only reason that camera is the market leader in that segment, is because it’s the only camera in that segment.

I expect both Canon and Nikon to surpass Sony there, just as Canon has surpassed Sony in the aps-c category with the M series.

 

[scottkinfw]

What happens if Nikon enters the market on one end of FF and Canon enters on the opposite, i.e. a pricey mirrorless D850 comes out around the same time as a modest mirrorless 6D2, or the D610 line is refreshed as a $1999 mirrorless setup while Canon puts out some $4k 5DS2 flavored mirrorless rig?

Curious to see (if Canon and Nikon don't enter the market with multiple price points right away) if people freak out that the first offering is all they are going to get and it wasn't the price point / feature set that they've wanted.

Would either company publicly reassure folks that 'this is just the first body and others are coming' or will they button their lips to get folks to focus their wallets on what is currently being released?

- A

Why would it even matter?

Scott

 

[dak723]

... since neither of them will be able to match Sony's performance....

If you mean the DR of the sensor, I don't think anyone will match it as Sony seems to have a patent for the best system. If you mean any other aspect of performance...I don't see much pf a problem there with both Nikon and Canon surpassing Sony's performance, ergonomics, color, AF, etc.

 

[3kramd5]

... since neither of them will be able to match Sony's performance....

If you mean the DR of the sensor, I don't think anyone will match it as Sony seems to have a patent for the best system. If you mean any other aspect of performance...I don't see much pf a problem there with both Nikon and Canon surpassing Sony's performance, ergonomics, color, AF, etc.

Color is as good as the calibration tool.
Nikon has abysmal on sensor AF. Maybe they’ll hit it out of the park, but there is no basis to expect they will.

 

[fullstop]

rumors for pending Nikon FF mirrorless cameras include specific mentioning of a good AF system. Personally I expect it to be fully on par with Sony A7 III for the lower-end Nikon (2000 usd) and with Sony A9 for the higher-end Nikon model (4000 usd). I cannot imagine Nikon coming out with mirrorless FF duds. It is their most important product launch in a long time. i am hoping for a similar hit as the D3/D700/D300 back in 2007. Canon needs a good wake-up call.

Over 400 AF points, not sure about the exact number, it should be somewhere between 430-450. The AF is supposed to be very fast.

Read more: https://nikonrumors.com/page/5/#ixzz5Ly1vsoEp

Over 400 AF points, not sure about the exact number, it should be somewhere between 430-450. The AF is supposed to be very fast.

Read more: https://nikonrumors.com/page/5/#ixzz5Ly1vsoEp

 

[BillB]

rumors for pending Nikon FF mirrorless cameras include specific mentioning of a good AF system. Personally I expect it to be fully on par with Sony A7 III for the lower-end Nikon (2000 usd) and with Sony A9 for the higher-end Nikon model (4000 usd). I cannot imagine Nikon coming out with mirrorless FF duds. It is their most important product launch in a long time. i am hoping for a similar hit as the D3/D700/D300 back in 2007. Canon needs a good wake-up call.

Over 400 AF points, not sure about the exact number, it should be somewhere between 430-450. The AF is supposed to be very fast.

More magic numbers!
Read more: https://nikonrumors.com/page/5/#ixzz5Ly1vsoEp

Over 400 AF points, not sure about the exact number, it should be somewhere between 430-450. The AF is supposed to be very fast.

Read more: https://nikonrumors.com/page/5/#ixzz5Ly1vsoEp

 

[neuroanatomist]

Probably the price will be lower, since neither of them will be able to match Sony's performance, so they will need to come in at a lower price point to compete.

Canon launched the 'underperforming' EOS M at a higher price than competing Sony NEX models, and it domestically outsold every MILC model on the market except a two-generations-old, deeply discounted NEX model. I'm sure they won't make that mistake again. :

That is what I think will happen.

Then history strongly suggests it won't, because just about everything you stated would happen (like every Canon camera with Digic7 having 4K)...didn't.

 

[Busted Knuckles]

Simply waiting for update to the 5dsr. Hoping it is mirrorless and I will trade in the 5d3 amd 1dx1 and what ever $$ needed.

That will do me for the next 6-7 years

 

[3kramd5]

rumors for pending Nikon FF mirrorless cameras include specific mentioning of a good AF system.

I don’t put much stock in rumors. A leak is a different story, but it is hard to leak more than specs and form. Specs as I hope we all know rarely tell the whole story.

Nikon might hit it out of the park, but they have no prior good OSPDAF system upon which to justify the belief they will. But there is a 100% certainty the AF point representation in the VF will be sh*t based on the fullstop definition

 

[fullstop]

sony A7 III and A9 AF systems are good to excellent. definitely at least on par with way overhyped Canon DP-AF implementations so far. Sony A9 AF dances circles around a 1Dx II in live view mode and is on par to it in mirrorslapper mode.

i fully expect the 2 upcoming Nikon FF Milcs to have AF at least on par with Sony A7 III and A9 respectively (lower end and higher end Nikon model).

i have also not read complaints re. Sony or Nikon about AF field markings not matching actual AF field.

 

[3kramd5]

sony A7 III and A9 AF systems are good to excellent. definitely at least on par with way overhyped Canon DP-AF implementations so far. Sony A9 AF dances circles around a 1Dx II in live view mode and is on par to it in mirrorslapper mode.

In many situations A7riii is not even on par with my 1Dx, let alone 1DxII. In some situations A7Riii is better.

i fully expect the 2 upcoming Nikon FF Milcs to have AF at least on par with Sony A7 III and A9 respectively (lower end and higher end Nikon model).

Shrug. It might turn out that way, but sounds like wishful thinking. It took Sony three generations to get to where they are, plus OSPDAF in camera’s like a99. Nikon is starting from scratch.

i have also not read complaints re. Sony or Nikon about AF field markings not matching actual AF field.

That’s because it’s an illegitimate compliant. I would not be surprised if you are unique in this wanting of the AF indicator in the VF to be the exact same size as the AF strip on the sensor, especially given how big the sensor is relative to the VF.

 

[neuroanatomist]

sony A7 III and A9 AF systems are good to excellent. definitely at least on par with way overhyped Canon DP-AF implementations so far. Sony A9 AF dances circles around a 1Dx II in live view mode and is on par to it in mirrorslapper mode.

In many situations A7riii is not even on par with my 1Dx, let alone 1DxII. In some situations A7Riii is better

Here we see the difference between statements by someone who has actually used the products which they are discussing, compared to someone who's only knowledge of those products comes from reading the Internet.

 

[BillB]

sony A7 III and A9 AF systems are good to excellent. definitely at least on par with way overhyped Canon DP-AF implementations so far. Sony A9 AF dances circles around a 1Dx II in live view mode and is on par to it in mirrorslapper mode.

i fully expect the 2 upcoming Nikon FF Milcs to have AF at least on par with Sony A7 III and A9 respectively (lower end and higher end Nikon model).

i have also not read complaints re. Sony or Nikon about AF field markings not matching actual AF field.

There also seem to be a lot of complaints about Canon nerfing the size of their camera batteries. Don't recall any complaints about Sony or Nikon doing that either.

 

[fullstop]

There also seem to be a lot of complaints about Canon nerfing the size of their camera batteries. Don't recall any complaints about Sony or Nikon doing that either.

short memory? there were lots and lots of [fully justified] complaints re. battery charge / shot reach in Sony FF MILCs. But they have (finally) fixed it by putting better power packs into A7 III and A9.

 

[BillB]

There also seem to be a lot of complaints about Canon nerfing the size of their camera batteries. Don't recall any complaints about Sony or Nikon doing that either.

short memory? there were lots and lots of [fully justified] complaints re. battery charge / shot reach in Sony FF MILCs. But they have (finally) fixed it by putting better power packs into A7 III and A9.

Don't recall any charges of nerfing. Underspec batteries, sure.

 

[fullstop]

well, as opposed to Canon, Sony is definitely not marketing nerfing their cameras.