Canon’s 2024 Roadmap, and the timeline surprised us [CR3]

[koenkooi]

3rd quarter begins technically July 1. However Euro 2024 starts 14 June. Therefore those cameras must be shipped well before June 14.

The R3 we know of was delivered very shortly before the event, I can imagine Canon sending loaner R3 units to get people familiar with RF/mirrorless and then having the photographer pick up 'their' R1 at the CPS room at the start of the event.

I have no personal experience with events or CPS

 

[jam05]

With Euro 2024 starts on Friday June 14. Canon would most likely logistically have those units in hand well before June 14. Needless to say, there are most likely many units already in the hands of many Canon trused photographers.

 

[EricN]

BuT nO gLoBaL sHuTtEr!!

Forgot about that

 

[jam05]

Just to add. I thought of this after writing up the latest patent application I was reading today.

Canon's fabs more than sales may be dictating camera releases. Canon isn't going to release a popular camera until the sensor yields are where they want them to be.

So all these timeline rumors even from last year, could have been true - at the time.

But as things progress, and if the fabrication plants are struggling with yields, that shoves the entire timeline back until they can get things up to snuff - or enough sensors produced for the camera side.

I forget what paper or patent .. but it was completely unrelated Canon has dropped down to around 50-60nm in chip tech currently from what their patents were describing. this is a huge step from around the 95;ish nm they were the last time it was communicated anywhere.

And that doesn't include ADC and signal processing layers which usually use smaller geometries - if Canon doesn't have the equipment really to do any of this, then they have to do multi-patterning to create smaller design rules with older equipment.

That makes sense. Explains the rumor of the superfast and amazing readout time. Anxious to see if Canon has indeed surpased and gone faster than 1ms readout time.

 

[koenkooi]

Just to add. I thought of this after writing up the latest patent application I was reading today.

Canon's fabs more than sales may be dictating camera releases. Canon isn't going to release a popular camera until the sensor yields are where they want them to be.

So all these timeline rumors even from last year, could have been true - at the time. [...]

I've been wondering how Canon decides on the timing of announcements, I suspect that the halo items get announced on a fixed date, even if the yield is low. Consider all the "We didn't expect the 100-300L to be so popular" type of non-apologies versus the non-L lenses being available in sufficient quantities at launch. Even the RF200-800 is relatively easy to get, my preferred camera store in .nl seems to get at least one per week judging from the "back in stock!" notifications.

The R1 might have a real fixed announcement deadline if we assume it needs to be visually present at the Olympics. The 5 series announcement date is likely a lot more fluid.

I would prefer new photo gear to be available a week or so from the announcement, not 3-6 months!

 

[neuroanatomist]

Actually, this is NOT how they launched the R3. The R3 was introduced in September 2021. The Winter Olympics didn't happen until February 2022.

Gee, but I thought the R3 was supposed to be the R1 before Canon panicked and rebadged it. They were so panicked they rushed it out either a year late or 3 years early.

 

[Richard CR]

Forgot about that

I've been wondering how Canon decides on the timing of announcements, I suspect that the halo items get announced on a fixed date, even if the yield is low. Consider all the "We didn't expect the 100-300L to be so popular" type of non-apologies versus the non-L lenses being available in sufficient quantities at launch. Even the RF200-800 is relatively easy to get, my preferred camera store in .nl seems to get at least one per week judging from the "back in stock!" notifications.

The R1 might have a real fixed announcement deadline if we assume it needs to be visually present at the Olympics. The 5 series announcement date is likely a lot more fluid.

I would prefer new photo gear to be available a week or so from the announcement, not 3-6 months!

well even with low yields they could do a select number of cameras for the olympic games - probably only takes them .. what? maybe 1000 sensors /cameras or so to pull that off? It may be why the olympics gets demonstration pre-production units at times. That's around 50 wafers at 100% yield so even if they are getting an incredibly low 10% yield, 500 wafer run isn't much for the prestige of the games. The Canon's machines can process over 150 / hour easily. But they are more expensive if you are tossing a lot of them out. So the margin would not be there for mass production.

but I would imagine there may be a case where Canon has everything done and ready to roll into mass market, but it's pending something like the sensor.

 

[Del Paso]

I'm very curious to see the R5 Mark II! When it comes to their 5 series and their 1 series.. they are always freaking interesting cameras.

and yes, lower prices on the excellent R5 is never a bad thing either and don't forget used R5's too!

Unfortunately, MPB Europe often sells used cameras (oh, sorry, pre-owned ones) at prices higher than discounted new ones.
Their pricing for sought after RF lenses is sometimes as high as for new ones from regular dealers...Sometimes even higher!
And Canon Cashback can often be obtained for brand-new ones...

 

[Objective!]

Forgot about that

Fortunately : it's a Big chance there won't be a global shutter !

When you see all the reviews about the A9III (and as usual, a lot of them are made by paid youtubers pro-Sony), it's awful : this $6000 camera has the worst IQ of any FF camera !

A 15 years back in Time !

The R1 will crush it for IQ.

 

[dougsv]

well even with low yields they could do a select number of cameras for the olympic games - probably only takes them .. what? maybe 1000 sensors /cameras or so to pull that off? It may be why the olympics gets demonstration pre-production units at times. That's around 50 wafers at 100% yield so even if they are getting an incredibly low 10% yield, 500 wafer run isn't much for the prestige of the games. The Canon's machines can process over 150 / hour easily. But they are more expensive if you are tossing a lot of them out. So the margin would not be there for mass production.

but I would imagine there may be a case where Canon has everything done and ready to roll into mass market, but it's pending something like the sensor.

Few comments.... the standard wafer size for silicon fabrication nowadays is 12", this would imply in over 50 dies per wafer, so more about 200 wafers to produce the 1000 dies at 10% yield...

However, "The Canon's machines can process over 150 / hour easily." bear in mind that lithography steps are just a very small part of a wafer processing, its wafer throughput don't really dictate how long they need to produce these wafers, as the wafers will go literally through hundreds/thousands of other steps. The actual time in production for a wafer to go from bare silicon to diced dies is from maybe a couple of months (if lucky) to several months, depending on how busy the fab is. And that is just the frontend part, you gotta add more time for the packaging in backend and all the tests and validations needed to be done. We might be talking about like half a year or more to produce these sensors.

 

[Del Paso]

Gee, but I thought the R3 was supposed to be the R1 before Canon panicked and rebadged it. They were so panicked they rushed it out either a year late or 3 years early.

I expect the R 1 getting rebadged as R2, after Canon find out it is no match for the great globalshutterized A9 III. They already are panick-strickenly injection- molding the R2 badges!

 

[EricN]

3rd quarter begins technically July 1. However Euro 2024 starts 14 June. Therefore those cameras must be shipped well before June 14.

It was a joke about the United States' coin for $0.25
They say, "if it has to be explained, it's not a good joke..."

 

[schneidermax.photo]

I work side by side with different Canon EMEA Ambassadors - none of them has an R1 to test with them (at least not on field).
So not sure about many of these comments here..

 

[Brikna]

People who really need to save money can buy the original 5D for around $250 last time I checked.

People who want to save money should not spend it at all. If you spend $250, you didn't save anything, you spent it. Admittedly, you spent less than if you had spent $3,000, but you certainly didn't save anything.

 

[EricN]

Just to add. I thought of this after writing up the latest patent application I was reading today.

Canon's fabs more than sales may be dictating camera releases. Canon isn't going to release a popular camera until the sensor yields are where they want them to be.

So all these timeline rumors even from last year, could have been true - at the time.

But as things progress, and if the fabrication plants are struggling with yields, that shoves the entire timeline back until they can get things up to snuff - or enough sensors produced for the camera side.

I forget what paper or patent .. but it was completely unrelated Canon has dropped down to around 50-60nm in chip tech currently from what their patents were describing. this is a huge step from around the 95;ish nm they were the last time it was communicated anywhere.

And that doesn't include ADC and signal processing layers which usually use smaller geometries - if Canon doesn't have the equipment really to do any of this, then they have to do multi-patterning to create smaller design rules with older equipment.

As Canon works on faster sensors, they have more of a challenge to control heat, timing, and power requirements. Advanced stacking, more layers, etc all come into play.

So this could all come down to an engineering problem that Canon is working through for the R1.

That's an interesting point I hadn't thought about.

Less than one half but more than a third does sound good. When was the 95ish figure mentioned?

Is it known how much of the various designs Canon fabricates themselves versus buys from other companies?

 

[Brikna]

Unfortunately, MPB Europe often sells used cameras (oh, sorry, pre-owned ones) at prices higher than discounted new ones.
Their pricing for sought after RF lenses is sometimes as high as for new ones from regular dealers...Sometimes even higher!
And Canon Cashback can often be obtained for brand-new ones...

When you mentioned MPB...

MPB is a complete scam, at least from my experience here in the EU (Berlin branch).

I had decided to sell my EF 100-400 L II to them. Their initial offer was relatively OK, but when they received the lens, they reported that they discovered water entering the lens and scratches on the front lens. That lens was never exposed to even the slightest rain, and it had a protective filter from day one, so their remarks were a complete fabrication only with the aim of further reducing the original offer. The only real "problem" the lens had was dust inside it, but they didn't list that as a problem. In the end I backed out of the transaction and the lens was returned to me. When the lens arrived back, they had already affixed a label to the box with their SKU number and condition description - excellent.

I advise bypassing the EU branch of the MPB. The goods they buy are obviously not checked, they try to knock down the purchase prices with false claims, they stick their own stickers on the packaging in which you sent the equipment and remove and throw away the original bags...

 

[John Wilde]

Most likely a ploy by Canon marketing to get some to believe that it will not be until April. Canon most likely is already prepared to announce the R5II at any moment. Simply marketing tactics stir up anticipation buzz.

How does Canon saying nothing create buzz?

 

[scyrene]

Unfortunately, MPB Europe often sells used cameras (oh, sorry, pre-owned ones) at prices higher than discounted new ones.
Their pricing for sought after RF lenses is sometimes as high as for new ones from regular dealers...Sometimes even higher!
And Canon Cashback can often be obtained for brand-new ones...

When the 100-500 dropped substantially in price at the end of last year (including cashback I think?) the price of used ones suspiciously hovered at almost the same level, here in the UK. For <£50 difference on a £2-2.5k item it's goading you into buying new, which seems wrong (but maybe I'm too cynical).

 

[neuroanatomist]

When you mentioned MPB...

MPB is a complete scam, at least from my experience here in the EU (Berlin branch).

I had one bad experience with them early on (MPB US), it took them much longer than promised to review the gear I sent in, then there was a banking issue on their side with the payment, the overall result was that it took 3 weeks from them getting the gear to me getting the money. I gave them another chance and it went fine, and have sold other items to them since. In one case, they upgraded the condition from my selection of Excellent to Like New, in another they dropped it from Like New to Excellent, all others have been as I selected when obtaining the quote.

Actually, I'll likely be sending off my EF 11-24/4L to MPB pretty soon, since the RF 10-20/4L I just ordered is currently out for delivery on a UPS truck.

 

[roby17269]

I've been wondering how Canon decides on the timing of announcements, I suspect that the halo items get announced on a fixed date, even if the yield is low. Consider all the "We didn't expect the 100-300L to be so popular" type of non-apologies versus the non-L lenses being available in sufficient quantities at launch. Even the RF200-800 is relatively easy to get, my preferred camera store in .nl seems to get at least one per week judging from the "back in stock!" notifications.

the 200-800 is not easy to get here in the US... I have pre-ordered at Adorama 4 days after the announcement and I am still waiting...

The R1 might have a real fixed announcement deadline if we assume it needs to be visually present at the Olympics. The 5 series announcement date is likely a lot more fluid.

I would prefer new photo gear to be available a week or so from the announcement, not 3-6 months!

Me too!