Canon’s upcoming announcements recap

[mimbu]

Do they? I suppose, if you cherry pick the less popular lines. There have been 15 a7-series models in the past 10 years. 5 of them have been a7R models, averaging a 2-year cycle. The others generally average a ~3 year cycle. The a7S II came out 18 months after the original.

I believe you're the one cherry picking models here... Things were a bit different in the early days when things were advancing & changing faster. Looking from around the A7iii onwards, once Sony made big breakthroughs in AF and sensor design, things dropped into a pretty regular ~4 year cycle for most models, and the gap from the A7Sii to the A7Siii was 5 years, somewhat balancing out the shorter time from the A7S to the A7Sii.

One exception is the A7R series where Sony has been pushing the limits with sensors & other tech much more, that has been on more of a ~3 year release cycle. The current model is very impressive and Canon has their work cut out to match it with the R5ii, assuming the R5 series is going to carry the "high resolution body" banner for Canon going forward.

Anyway, overall Sony's release cycle isn't so different from Canon's or Nikon's.

Hope Canon does the R1 right, someone needs to seriously challenge Sony on the high end with a camera that isn't just using mostly Sony internals (aka Nikon).

 

[mimbu]

One other issue for Canon is price.....since the R52 will be most directly competing with the Z8, Canon won't be able to sustain a price above $4k, at least not for very long. I've seen new Z8's with US warranty as low as $3200 of late. IMO the Canon has to have a stacked sensor and improvements to its already good AF. The faster sensor readout and electronic shutter with no distortion are minimum requirements to be competitive now. On the AF front, Canon has lots to build on so I'm hoping for something faster and more accurate than the competition.

Canon's AF is way ahead of Nikon's, there isn't much concern there. And the lack of mechancial shutter on the Z8 and Z9 is a problem, they have not eliminated distortion of the other problems of electronic shutter. Nikon cut corners to hit price points, and there are no free lunches.

If Canon is going to continue with the R3 line it should be more geared to compete with the Z8 while the R1 tackles the Z9 and A1. I suspect however that the R3 will be sent out to pasture once the R1 is here.

 

[neuroanatomist]

One other issue for Canon is price.....since the R52 will be most directly competing with the Z8, Canon won't be able to sustain a price above $4k, at least not for very long. I've seen new Z8's with US warranty as low as $3200 of late.

Have you wondered why the Z8 prices have dropped so far, so fast? Did the R5 price drop 20% in the first year? Do you see any parallels to Nikon's weak position in the ILC market? Have you considered that the marketing drivers for pricing might be different between the market leader who has not lost any market share over the past several years and the distant #3 in the market that used to be a close #2 before hemorrhaging half of their market share?

IMO the Canon has to have a stacked sensor and improvements to its already good AF. The faster sensor readout and electronic shutter with no distortion are minimum requirements to be competitive now. On the AF front, Canon has lots to build on so I'm hoping for something faster and more accurate than the competition.

Competitive with who? I'm not sure why people persist on thinking that high-level users switching between one brand and another is common. Sites like DPR love to make comparisons across brands, but for the most part users of a system stay with that system. The 'competition' for the R5II isn't the Z8 or the a7V, it's the 5DIV, 6DII and R6 that Canon users currently own.

 

[mimbu]

The 'competition' for the R5II isn't the Z8 or the a7V, it's the 5DIV, 6DII and R6 that Canon users currently own.

Any Canon users still on EF are ripe for picking off by Sony or Nikon when they eventually decide to move to mirrorless. That's how Nikon (and to a lesser extent Canon) lost so much to Sony over the last decade.

 

[srwoolc]

Any Canon users still on EF are ripe for picking off by Sony or Nikon when they eventually decide to move to mirrorless. That's how Nikon (and to a lesser extent Canon) lost so much to Sony over the last decade.

With the ability to continue to use the EF & EF-S lenses on R cameras, I would think most people will stick with Canon. I have a 5D Mk Iv and now an R5. I never once thought about switching. The learning curve is too great. Unless Nikon or Sony come out with something earthshattering, I'm going to stick with Canon.

 

[neuroanatomist]

I believe you're the one cherry picking models here... Things were a bit different in the early days when things were advancing & changing faster. Looking from around the A7iii onwards, once Sony made big breakthroughs in AF and sensor design, things dropped into a pretty regular ~4 year cycle for most models, and the gap from the A7Sii to the A7Siii was 5 years, somewhat balancing out the shorter time from the A7S to the A7Sii.

Ok, let's start from the a7III in 2018, the a7IV was 2021. The a7C was 2020, the a7CII was 2023. How is that a regular ~4 year cycle?

Anyway, overall Sony's release cycle isn't so different from Canon's or Nikon's.

On average, Sony's release cycle is faster than Canon's or Nikon's. Not massively so, but faster.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Any Canon users still on EF are ripe for picking off by Sony or Nikon when they eventually decide to move to mirrorless. That's how Nikon (and to a lesser extent Canon) lost so much to Sony over the last decade.

How much market share did Canon lose to Sony over the last decade? (Nearly, couldn’t find 2012 data readily.) Let’s check the global numbers:

2013:
Canon - 43.2%
Nikon - 34.6%
Sony - 12.2%

2022:
Canon - 46.5%
Nikon - 11.7%
Sony - 26.1%

To be clear (since subtracting years seemed to be challenging), 46.5% is greater than 43.2%, therefore over the past decade Canon gained market share. That's the opposite of losing it, to anyone.

Pro tip: when you make statements that are blatantly false and comically easy to disprove, your credibility suffers.

Ps. The typical next step for you would be to move the goalposts. You weren’t talking about all cameras, just FF cameras. Then, perhaps, just those sold on Tuesdays.

 

[mxwphoto]

Any Canon users still on EF are ripe for picking off by Sony or Nikon when they eventually decide to move to mirrorless. That's how Nikon (and to a lesser extent Canon) lost so much to Sony over the last decade.

I would disagree with that. Lens collections create a lot of brand stickiness. Canon EF users are much more likely to buy a sub $100 EF to RF adapter with their new mirrorless camera than to switch an entire system. Most people do not want to spend extra thousands of dollars on new lenses in addition to a new body, especially since there is no penalty to adapting and only brings benefits.

Nikon played a major wrong move when they entered mirrorless by pricing the F to Z adapter exorbitantly high at $250 (or was it $299?). Add to it the fact that no screw drive so it alienated a lot of older lens customers, subpar AF so lenses did not work as well, no initial halo lens selection to get the base excited, and the results speak for themselves.

Nikon likely got some wildlife enthusiasts back with their excellent big tele primes and z8 and z9 and captured some retro nostalgia with Zfc and Zf (but ironically no retro lenses to capitalize on it aside from the not really retro 28mm and 40mm compacts). As for the rest of the market, there is little compelling reason to jump/switch back to Nikon.

 

[David - Sydney]

Earlier tests and what I observed myself pointed to 400-ish Mbyte/s, it’s nice that it’s slightly more, 520Mbyte/s, but that’s still way below what the cards can do.
Since Canon locks up the camera till the buffer is completely empty after pre-shooting, the faster, the better.

The R5 definitely has a constrained bus speed in my opinion as the eshutter bit depth drops to 12bit which is approximately the same bandwidth as 14 bit/12fps when using the mechanical shutter.

As far as I know, only the R3 and R6ii can do pre-capture and they have half the file size than the R5.

Have you tried cRAW (which is ~half size) to meet your buffer clearance issues?

 

[David - Sydney]

Competitive with who? I'm not sure why people persist on thinking that high-level users switching between one brand and another is common. Sites like DPR love to make comparisons across brands, but for the most part users of a system stay with that system. The 'competition' for the R5II isn't the Z8 or the a7V, it's the 5DIV, 6DII and R6 that Canon users currently own.

Anecdotal examples have shown me that it either depends on disposable income or a specific use case for one lens where a mixed Canon/Nikon or Canon/Sony dual systems can be found. A small leica walkaround setup and a R3+100-300/2.8 for sports. An astro setup of A7siii+14/1.4+20/1.4 plus a Canon R5+bunch of RF lenses for higher mp work.

I had dual setups for above and below water gear before consolidating. A new underwater housing needed for my next body would mean re-evaluating my above water setup costs. A number of years to come before I would need to make that call though and I do more underwater than astro at this time.

I agree that it isn't common though. Some users in this group have dual setups. The reversed zoom direction for Nikon would drive me spare though.

 

[mxwphoto]

Do you mean a 55mp sensor with a 3+second buffer would be 60 images (3x20fps) x 55mp*14bit = 46GB buffer storage?
Prebuffering would eat into the 3 seconds buffer as well eg 0.5s pre +2.5s post shutter button press.
Assuming that the R5ii allows 20fps @ 14 bit depth vs 12 bit for the R5.

Note that the A1 does oversampling for 8k video but doesn't offer a raw mode... mostly because the CFe type A cards can't handle the bandwidth needed.

I am not sure how you are getting 46GB over 3 seconds as by the math 55mpx*14bit/8bit per byte = 96.25MB per photo, or 1.9GB/s at 20fps.

Using Canon CRAW file size should be around 60MB each, so it would be around 1.2GB/s. That is well within the capabilities of a fast CFe type B card. By that math a 8GB ram chip as buffer should be more than enough, which doesn't add much to the cost of the whole camera build equation. I would argue it is worth the expense to add the feature.

 

[mimbu]

Ok, let's start from the a7III in 2018, the a7IV was 2021. The a7C was 2020, the a7CII was 2023. How is that a regular ~4 year cycle?

The gap between the A7iii and A7iv was 3.5 years. If we're going to round to whole years, that gets rounded up not down.

The A7C was based on the A7iii, released in a compact body style. When the A7iv came out, the A7Cii was released about a year later. Expect future A7C series cameras to come around a year after the camera they are based on.

On average, Sony's release cycle is faster than Canon's or Nikon's. Not massively so, but faster.

Z6: Nov 2018
Z6ii: Oct 2020

Z7: Sep 2018
Z7ii: Oct 2020

Considering those are the only two second generation Z mount cameras from Nikon, doesn't seem like they have a track record of a long release cycle. Z6iii and probably Z7iii are due soon, ~3.5 years after the v2 models.

Is Sony releasing faster than Canon? Yeah, probably a bit, but not to the point of "creating excessive ewaste" or whatever it was that you originally said. Sony is still the company that is driving MILC forward while Canon and Nikon play catch up from a technology standpoint.

I really hope Canon has spent the money to make the R1 kick the A1's butt, the market needs it.

 

[mimbu]

How much market share did Canon lose to Sony over the last decade? (Nearly, couldn’t find 2012 data readily.) Let’s check the global numbers:

2013:
Canon - 43.2%
Nikon - 34.6%
Sony - 12.2%

2022:
Canon - 46.5%
Nikon - 11.7%
Sony - 26.1%

To be clear (since subtracting years seemed to be challenging), 46.5% is greater than 43.2%, therefore over the past decade Canon gained market share. That's the opposite of losing it, to anyone.

Pro tip: when you make statements that are blatantly false and comically easy to disprove, your credibility suffers.

Ps. The typical next step for you would be to move the goalposts. You weren’t talking about all cameras, just FF cameras. Then, perhaps, just those sold on Tuesdays.

Oh, how cute. You believe the Canon numbers that combine their DSLR and MILC sales together. When numbers are found that show only MILC sales, Sony and Canon are at best equal but in many markets Sony is signifigantly ahead. In APAC markets in particular Sony is often signifigantly ahead, and APAC markets are where future growth lies. In legacy markets (NA, EU), sales are closer and sometimes Canon is ahead by a few percentage points.

Canon and Nikon abandoning entry level MILC sales to Sony (just look at their APS-C lens lineups) is not going to do either brand any favors when it comes to gathering new customers for future sales. As others have pointed out, many people don't switch systems. If you don't gather new users at the entry level you can't later turn them into customers for higher end products.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Is Sony releasing faster than Canon? Yeah, probably a bit, but not to the point of "creating excessive ewaste" or whatever it was that you originally said.

I said nothing of the sort.

Sony is still the company that is driving MILC forward while Canon and Nikon play catch up from a technology standpoint.

Which makes sense...they could not compete with Canon and Nikon in the DSLR market, so they make a new market for themselves. But Canon is steadily eating away at that new market, I wonder where Sony will go next if they start losing significant market share? It does appear that their rapid increase has plateaued.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Oh, how cute. You believe the Canon numbers that combine their DSLR and MILC sales together. When numbers are found that show only MILC sales, Sony and Canon are at best equal but in many markets Sony is signifigantly ahead.

...and there's the goalpost move I predicted. How surprising.

 

[mimbu]

I said nothing of the sort.


Which makes sense...they could not compete with Canon and Nikon in the DSLR market, so they make a new market for themselves. But Canon is steadily eating away at that new market, I wonder where Sony will go next if they start losing significant market share? It does appear that their rapid increase has plateaued.

Sony will continue to eat away at Canon's marketshare. And Nikon's, what little there is left of it.

 

[mimbu]

...and there's the goalpost move I predicted. How surprising.

That's not a goalpost move, that's basing things on facts instead of Canon's fantasy numbers that include legacy products. Canon has stopped designing new DSLRs, discontinued many lenses, and will phase out production entirely.

 

[mimbu]

I said nothing of the sort.

Fair enough, you jumped into a conversation I was having with someone else. The ewaste comment is what started the discussion.

 

[David - Sydney]

Oh, how cute. You believe the Canon numbers that combine their DSLR and MILC sales together. When numbers are found that show only MILC sales, Sony and Canon are at best equal but in many markets Sony is signifigantly ahead. In APAC markets in particular Sony is often signifigantly ahead, and APAC markets are where future growth lies. In legacy markets (NA, EU), sales are closer and sometimes Canon is ahead by a few percentage points.

Canon have stated that they will continue to make DLSRs as long as customers want them. There is still a market for them and they are still cheaper to make and profitable at the low end. They MAY cease production at some point but it isn't now and there are still competitive markets in developing countries. To suggest that Canon still has ~50% of their marketshare due to DLSR would seem unlikely given the small number of models in production.

Happy for you to share the regional data that you are quoting... helps everyone understand your point of view rather than random comments.

At the end of the day, Canon et al need to be profitable in the long term. There is no doubt about Canon's strategy and long term play with R mount. Growth in numbers is one thing but profitability is another. Canon has both at the moment. Can you point to Sony's profitability financials for their MILC products?

Canon and Nikon abandoning entry level MILC sales to Sony (just look at their APS-C lens lineups) is not going to do either brand any favors when it comes to gathering new customers for future sales. As others have pointed out, many people don't switch systems. If you don't gather new users at the entry level you can't later turn them into customers for higher end products.

Canon has now ceased production of their M systems but have >10 R mount MILC bodies from RP to R3 covering 6 full frame and 4 APS-C. There are 4 RF-S lenses with all RF and adapted EF and EF-S lenses also available on APS-C MILCs. I fail to see how Canon is abandoning entry level sales to Sony.

By moving to R from M, Canon has provided the migration path from low to high end wasn't possible with M. That said, the M system kits were cheap enough to have both.

If you move the goalposts and say that Sony allows 3rd parties to compete with their lenses, then that is correct but eats into their sales/profits... they had no option at the beginning as they had no lenses for their new bodies. The metabones etc adapters were pretty dodgy at times but users were happy enough to wait for native lenses.

 

[koenkooi]

[...]By moving to R from M, Canon has provided the migration path from low to high end wasn't possible with M. That said, the M system kits were cheap enough to have both. [...]

But the R mount does lack compact bodies like the original M (hot shoe!) or M200. I'm happy with the R8+28mm, but when I use the M+22mm I do realize how big the difference in size is.
I fear an M style body is very unlikely, since Canon really does not want a hot-shoe in such bodies and the new smart shoe is very deep, but I nevertheless hope for something like the M6II/Sony A7C/Sony a6700, a compact body without an EVF hump. Ideally an FF body, the RF16mm would be great for UWA in dimly lit places, but a crop sensor would work for me as well.

The AF on the original M was annoying when it was new (after the 2.0 firmware, it was unusable before), but comparing it to the R8 made me appreciate modern DPAF based AF even more!