Canon’s upcoming announcements recap

[neuroanatomist]

Sony will continue to eat away at Canon's marketshare. And Nikon's, what little there is left of it.

That is a truly asinine statement.

As I already demonstrated (with actual data, you should try that sometime) in terms of global camera market share, Canon has not lost any, so if that’s what Sony was eating, they’d have starved by now. They haven’t, because they’ve been eating Nikon’s market share.

But, you want to ignore legacy products that people are still buying and focus only on mirrorless. Fine. A few years ago, Sony led the MILC market. Today, they’re neck-and-neck with Canon. Yet you conclude that Sony has been eating away at Canon’s market share. If you actually believe it, you should start wearing that dunce cap you have in your closet.

 

[Del Paso]

Sony will continue to eat away at Canon's marketshare. And Nikon's, what little there is left of it.

Do you take your wishes for realities?

 

[neuroanatomist]

To suggest that Canon still has ~50% of their marketshare due to DLSR would seem unlikely given the small number of models in production.

Happy for you to share the regional data that you are quoting... helps everyone understand your point of view rather than random comments.

Don’t hold your breath. DSLRs comprise less than 20% of the ILC market, a fraction that has fallen quickly over the past several years. It was only four years ago that MILCs started out selling DSLRs. In spite of that relatively rapid market shift, Canon maintained their dominance without losing market share. That’s what the data show.

You can lead a Sony fanboy to data, but you can’t make him comprehend.

 

[EOS 4 Life]

Come on, let's not get into hyberbole here. Sony uses the same 4 or 5 year release cycle as Canon and Nikon do

Sony releases new models more often.
We can argue that meaningful updates are on a 4 or 5-year release cycle.

 

[EOS 4 Life]

Canon's AF is way ahead of Nikon's, there isn't much concern there. And the lack of mechancial shutter on the Z8 and Z9 is a problem, they have not eliminated distortion of the other problems of electronic shutter.

Now that Nikon has access to RED's sensors that should go away in the future.

 

[EOS 4 Life]

Any Canon users still on EF are ripe for picking off by Sony or Nikon when they eventually decide to move to mirrorless.

No, we aren't.
EF lenses perform much better on Canon cameras.
It is the people who either have EF-M lenses or want to go completely mirrorless with lenses who are ripe for the picking.

 

[EOS 4 Life]

Canon and Nikon abandoning entry level MILC sales to Sony

This is not even remotely true.
Canon dominates entry level.
Where Canon needs to catch up with the Z 8 and above.

 

[blackcoffee17]

This is not even remotely true.
Canon dominates entry level.
Where Canon needs to catch up with the Z 8 and above.

I criticise Canon a lot but the R8 is the best entry level full frame camera on the market right now. And the R6II is the best mid-range body.

 

[Quack]

Any Canon users still on EF are ripe for picking off by Sony or Nikon when they eventually decide to move to mirrorless. That's how Nikon (and to a lesser extent Canon) lost so much to Sony over the last decade.

Since all the camera brands have cameras that are very similar in functionality, and any serious photographer has invested in a system of lenses and other accessories, people are not likely to switch brands. Sony gained a lot of market share from Nikon (not Canon) because they offered FF mirrorless before their competitors. Everybody is in the mirrorless game now, so no reason to switch.

 

[Del Paso]

Since all the camera brands have cameras that are very similar in functionality, and any serious photographer has invested in a system of lenses and other accessories, people are not likely to switch brands. Sony gained a lot of market share from Nikon (not Canon) because they offered FF mirrorless before their competitors. Everybody is in the mirrorless game now, so no reason to switch.

I might add, many, many reasons not to switch for Sony!

 

[neuroanatomist]

That's not a goalpost move

That's how Nikon (and to a lesser extent Canon) lost so much to Sony over the last decade.

When numbers are found that show only MILC sales, Sony and Canon are at best equal but in many markets Sony is signifigantly ahead.

In APAC markets in particular Sony is often signifigantly ahead, and APAC markets are where future growth lies.

Canon lost so much to Sony...only MILC...mainly in APAC. Yes, then primarily in Thailand. For cameras sold on Tuesdays. Between 1400-1500h. By a salesman named Somchai. Not moving the goalposts, at all.

 

[sanj]

Sony will continue to eat away at Canon's marketshare. And Nikon's, what little there is left of it.

I do not have any statistics. But here is a little real-life story: I have a 7-day bread-and-butter shoot (nothing artistic) for a University after 10 days. All my regular team members are unavailable for one reason or the other. I contacted several big rental houses for recommendations for assistants. All, I repeat ALL of them said that they do not have anyone good with Canon cameras, they all are good with Sony.
I remember around 10 years ago assistants who worked well on Canon cameras were everywhere. Btw, it would be ignorant to presume that India is a small market...
My search for an assistant who is good with Canon cameras continues...., but if I want someone for a Sony camera, lots are available.

 

[frankchn]

This is not even remotely true.
Canon dominates entry level.
Where Canon needs to catch up with the Z 8 and above.

I think FF and higher end in general is what Canon might want to keep an eye out for. From what is released by Canon and Sony using Circana/NPD data, it seems like Canon is #1 in total shipments for MILC cameras in the United States (all sensor sizes combined) in 2023 but Sony is #1 in total shipments and revenue for FF MILC and the Sony a7IV was the #1 FF camera by both revenue and units shipped.

It is great for Canon that they are selling a lot of APS-C cameras (they are probably selling R50s and R100s by the truckload since no one else really competes in that price segment), but I think higher end camera sales is more correlated to future lens revenue, which in turn dictates the pace of development and release for the higher end lenses (ahem 35L, 200-500L, TS-R, etc...).

 

[neuroanatomist]

I think FF and higher end in general is what Canon might want to keep an eye out for.

No doubt they are. Higher end body sales are a lagging indicator, sales represent buyers upgrading from lower spec, entry level bodies and those updating/replacing older higher-end bodies including DSLRs. Both are large populations of Canon users. There are 6D/6DII and 5DIII/5DIV who are only now moving to mirrorless, and xxD users who are likely tempted by the R8.

To those of us on CR, Canon’s entry into FF MILCs was a long time back (even if it was ‘late’, at least according to some). For many out in the real world (which we here do not represent), it’s pretty recent as far as camera buying is concerned.

 

[frankchn]

No doubt they are. Higher end body sales are a lagging indicator, sales represent buyers upgrading from lower spec, entry level bodies and those updating/replacing older higher-end bodies including DSLRs. Both are large populations of Canon users. There are 6D/6DII and 5DIII/5DIV who are only now moving to mirrorless, and xxD users who are likely tempted by the R8.

To those of us on CR, Canon’s entry into FF MILCs was a long time back (even if it was ‘late’, at least according to some). For many out in the real world (which we here do not represent), it’s pretty recent as far as camera buying is concerned.

The R5 was released in 2020, and Canon has been running discounts on that camera (and the R6) for most of 2023, so I think that must have attracted some folks who are upgrading. The 5D4 is almost 8 years old at this point, and the 6D2 7 years old.

I wonder how many of the folks still on the 5D3/5D4/6D2/etc... are waiting for the R5II or R6III (or further discounts on the existing cameras) vs people who are just not interested in upgrading to Canon mirrorless at all. Or maybe they are buying used (but of course that won't help Canon's camera revenue numbers much).

If a Canon user hasn't upgraded their camera in a decade+ (i.e. they are still on a 5D3 or original 6D), I don't know how much Canon can count on them upgrading to the latest shiny thing.

 

[neuroanatomist]

If a Canon user hasn't upgraded their camera in a decade+ (i.e. they are still on a 5D3 or original 6D), I don't know how much Canon can count on them upgrading to the latest shiny thing.

I don’t either, but I expect Canon does. Over the past decade, the types of cameras available has changed quite a bit. But what hasn’t changed is that nearly half of people buying them pick one with the Canon nameplate.

 

[frankchn]

I don’t either, but I expect Canon does. Over the past decade, the types of cameras available has changed quite a bit. But what hasn’t changed is that nearly half of people buying them pick one with the Canon nameplate.

Yes, across the overall market that has remained true. But the full frame segment where US consumers are choosing Sony by a plurality seems somewhat concerning to me.

It is not as if Sony launched anything particularly exciting for FF in 2023 that drove a one time bump in sales either (they launched the a7CII and a7CR which are just existing cameras -- the a7IV and a7RV -- in smaller bodies, and the a9III didn't ship till 2024).

If anything, I would have expected Canon to ship out lots of reasonably priced R8s (also launched in 2023) targeted at the upgraders and such, so at least take the crown in terms of volume in the FF segment.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Yes, across the overall market that has remained true. But the full frame segment where US consumers are choosing Sony by a plurality seems somewhat concerning to me.

That was the point I was trying to address. For most of the past 10 years, Sony was #1 in mirrorless. First with the M line, then with the R line, Canon moved into the market. Canon is #1 in crop mirrorless (has been for a few years), and now is #1 in mirrorless overall. Sony used to own the MILC market, now they own only one segment of it. It's the segment that generates the most revenue (which doesn't necessarily mean the most profit), but it's one segment...and with aggressive pricing on the R8, and affordable FF lenses, Canon is likely to take over the FF MILC segment in the next year or two.

 

[frankchn]

That was the point I was trying to address. For most of the past 10 years, Sony was #1 in mirrorless. First with the M line, then with the R line, Canon moved into the market. Canon is #1 in crop mirrorless (has been for a few years), and now is #1 in mirrorless overall. Sony used to own the MILC market, now they own only one segment of it. It's the segment that generates the most revenue (which doesn't necessarily mean the most profit), but it's one segment...and with aggressive pricing on the R8, and affordable FF lenses, Canon is likely to take over the FF MILC segment in the next year or two.

Well the entire industry has transitioned to mirrorless such that it is no surprise that Sony isn't #1 overall in mirrorless any more (the product mix also doesn't favor Sony given they don't have lower end cameras like the R50 and R100).

That said, I had the impression that Canon was #1 in total FF ILC sales for a long time -- since the original 5D launched really (that is, mirrorless + DSLR, so including whatever Sony was selling back when Canikon was making FF DSLRs and Sony was the only one making FF MILCs), but is likely not #1 in FF ILC (mirrorless + DSLR) sales today (with DSLR sales being an insignificant part of the total nowadays).

 

[neuroanatomist]

That said, I had the impression that Canon was #1 in total FF ILC sales for a long time -- since the original 5D launched really (that is, mirrorless + DSLR, so including whatever Sony was selling back when Canikon was making FF DSLRs and Sony was the only one making FF MILCs), but is likely not #1 in FF ILC (mirrorless + DSLR) sales today (with DSLR sales being an insignificant part of the total nowadays).

That's probably the case. But it's also probably temporary. Canon's APS-C MILC sales took a hit as they transitioned from M to R, shorter in duration given the faster pace of sales of low-end bodies. The slower pace of high end bodies means that as Canon transitions their user base from FF DSLRs to FF MILCs, a dip in sales is reasonable. Canon is not in this for the short term results.