Fuel for the fire: Amazon DSLR Rankings...and no REAL 2012-2013 market data?

[Diko]

I had an uber cool post somewhere here.... I've lost it. Darn tablets.... Need to fix my PC. :-(

Well never mind...

Q: What are the major growth areas in the image sensor business in 2014/5?

A: Along with general market growth in the volume segments, there is a trend towards physically larger sensors to improve all around performance. While the pixel-count war is not dead, the top mobile OEMS have seen the light. Smaller pixels matter, but are being seen as enablers for unique features rather than just a way to use more power and memory, while larger pixels are getting the credit they deserve for image quality.

An interview with the vice president of Aptina

NIKON and CANON are still quite quiet about it..... And NIKON either just broke with SONY... and SONY is not sharing any food... I mean MF SENSOR with NIKON.... or we are awaiting the big bang there....

As for CANON: I say they are not STUPID they just need time to prepare a few descent L glasses for MF.

What does it has to do with this topic: Nothing and everything.

Nothing - I am talking about tech and about no market shares...

Everything - the trend setter gets the market pie. And the one is: PENTAX! MF with ISO of 200K. Not a bad idea.
unfortinatly Sensorgen haven't tested that awesome SONY MF CMOS... so we are quite away from understanding both its market and technology potential.

As for statistics.... WHY Amazon?!?!? I always have imagined you as prosumer. How many times have you bought a body there admit it?

Like 75% of this post's readers aren't B&H clients.... Come on! You don't have enough info to discuss it here.
Even e-bay stats might give you better understanding for the market leaders than Amazon.

And that is for the brave users.

ON the other hand are people like me who don't like their DSRL bodies without warranty.

 

[Diko]

I have to admit I totally forgot the tele-photo dep. even though I am a proud owner of them L series representatives (read as "heavy") when I was thinking about MF.

When I read your post I was like sh#$t he is right!...

And I like saving a dollar whenever I can! So I saved one or two $ the white beauties. Got quite lucky on those dark risky deals.

However you know what makes me darn crazy every time when thinking about it:

Why is everyone in town producing those lovely GoPro like little cameras. Even HP!?!?!

And why such an important company like as CANON with all of its image and potential refuses to conquer this sweet pie?

 

[raptor3x]

By that sentiment, the D800 was a FAR more popular camera than the 5D III when it came out:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Canon%205d%20mark%20iii%2C%20D800&cmpt=q

I'll bet good money that it's because there's way more variations on the 5D3's name than the D800.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Jrista

After looking again at the Canon and Nikon quarterly reports, You are correct in that we cannot get exact figures, but we can get ballpark figures.

Canon says 82% of their 227 billion yen sales was for Interchangable lens digital cameras which includes lenses sold as well. We don't know how many of these are video or cinema cameras though.

This males for $186.14 billion yen.


Nikon sold 134.17 billion yen worth of digital cameras, and 60% of these were Interchangeable lens cameras including lenses. Assuming the same value ratio that Canon used. (82%), then Nikon sold about 111 billion yen worth of DSLR's and lenses. This is all interchangeable lens cameras, so it includes mirrorless.

So, Canon sold close to 186.14 billion yen worth of interchangeable lens cameras including lenses, and this likely includes video and cinema cameras.

Nikon sold on the order of 111 billion Yen worth of DSLR's including lenses.

If Canon sales for video cameras was 10% (Just grabbed a number), then their DSLR sales figure drops to about 167.5 billion yen.

So, Canon sold more dollars worth of DSLR's than Nikon's total Digital camera sales.

Those figures assuredly are not precise, but no matter how you finagle them, Canon sales for DSLR's will beat Nikon.

Have you looked at Sony figures (I haven't)? It might be interesting to see if they are now a major player.

 

[Loswr]

It still doesn't change the fact that we cannot directly compare ILC camera sales to ILC camera sales across businesses. ... If we had the ability to identify what Nikon's Sports Optics revenues were...and concurrently identify what Canon's Security Cam, Reference Display, Projector, IJP, and IS Binos revenues were, we could then subtract those and produce a number we could compare directly between these two companies.

That's all I care about here. Knowing apples-to-apples how the two companies ILC sales compare.

You're correct that there a true apples-to-apples comparison isn't feasible with the data the two companies present. For Canon, we can calculate the total sales of ILCs (cameras + lenses) in billions of yen (B¥) from their public data. They present data for 'cameras' and a breakdown of value base of ILCs (including lenses) vs compact cameras. The other items you list are excluded – security cameras are in another business unit; IJPs, projecters, etc., are in Imaging but displayed separately (IJPs in their own category, projectors, etc. as Other). For Canon during the period Apr 2013 - Mar 2014 (Canon's 2Q13 - 1Q14), their ILC+lenses sales are 820 B¥.

Canon doesn't provide unit sales data; they do provide a percentage of ILC vs. compact units, but not the total units sold. However, Canon has stated that they have maintained the #1 position in unit sales of ILC+lenses for the past 11 years. Since they know how many units they've sold (even if they don't publish those data), and Nikon does publish the number of units sold so Canon knows that too, we can assume they aren't lying.

We cannot really calculate Nikon's ILC sales in billions of yen, because while they provide unit sales numbers broken down for ILCs, lenses, and compact cameras, they don't break down the sales revenues. However, for Nikon during the period Apr 2013 - Mar 2014 (Nikon's FY2014), their total Imaging System sales were 685 B¥.

We still need a comparable revenue dollar value for a subdivision of BOTH companies, which we don't have, which renders the whole "market share" argument that claims Canon is still utterly trouncing the competition in the ILC business suspect at best, and invalid at worst.

Canon's sales of ILCs + lenses for the Apr 2013 - Mar 2014 was 820 B¥, which is 20% higher than Nikon's total Imaging system revenue of 685 B¥ for the same period, from which the revenues from compact cameras, etc. would need to be subtracted.

Nikon's unit base for ILCs seems to be ~30% of total camera sales, and Canon's unit base for ILCs is ~40% of total camera sales. Canon's value base for ILCs is ~80%, Nikon's should be lower given that their unit base is lower, but if we just assume guess that it's 80%, that puts Nikon's sales of ILCs + lenses at ~548 B¥. If that's true, Canon's sales of ILCs + lenses are ~50% higher than Nikon's. About the only thing you might argue could/should be subtracted from the Canon revenue would be the Cinema EOS line ("interchangeable lens digital cameras" excludes consumer video cameras, camcorders, etc. becuase they don't have interchangeable lenses)...and their Cinema EOS line is likely accounting for only a very small portion of their revenues. Even if you assume that Cinema EOS accounts for 10% of the ILC revenue (and that's probably unrealistically high), Canon's 'stills' ILC revenues are still 35% higher than Nikon's.

So, from the data available we can estimate that Canon's sales in the ILC segment are at least 20% and possibly up to 50% higher than Nikon's. Despite the aspersions you're casting on it, I'd say the market share argument has significant validity.

 

[Loswr]

Hmm...I think your percentages are off. According to this report:

http://www.canon.com/ir/results/2014/rslt2014q2e.pdf

Page S3, the percentage of the imaging division for cameras (which includes lenses, camcorders, Cinema EOS, etc.) was 67%, not 82%. If that's the case, it puts the total number down to 124.7by. Much smaller difference between the two companies.

What you are quoting is a percentage of total Imaging System sales. In the quarterly presentation material, they provide a "value base" that ranges between 79-84% over a few quarters of camera sales, and that is what Mt. Spokane is referring to. That value base applies to "interchangeable lens digital cameras" (including lenses), so that excludes camcorders.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Hmm...I think your percentages are off. According to this report:

http://www.canon.com/ir/results/2014/rslt2014q2e.pdf

Page S3, the percentage of the imaging division for cameras (which includes lenses, camcorders, Cinema EOS, etc.) was 67%, not 82%. If that's the case, it puts the total number down to 124.7by. Much smaller difference between the two companies.

What you are quoting is a percentage of total Imaging System sales. In the quarterly presentation material, they provide a "value base" that ranges between 79-84% over a few quarters of camera sales, and that is what Mt. Spokane is referring to. That value base applies to "interchangeable lens digital cameras" (including lenses), so that excludes camcorders.

Yes, Canon quotes a percentage by value of 82% while Nikon reports overall sales value, but gives sales of cameras by unit not their value. I calculated that 60% of the units sold were DSLR's and lenses. Canon said that 82% of the income generated from camera sales was due to interchangeable lens sales. The problem was to get Nikon sales from numbers of cameras/lenses sold to a dollar value. I assumed that the same 82% of total cameras sales income that Canon quoted would get me in the ballpark for Nikon DSLR Sales $$.

Those figures are very confusing.

R&D is something totally different, it comes out of a different financial pool and may not be relatated to sales of specific product lines. I'm sure that each division gets a share, but it may also be calculated on which division needs it to reach company goals. Cinema is listed as a Canon goal, so lots of R&D dollars are likely going into cinema. All the new STM lenses with IS are definitely aimed at the low end video market, and were probably prioritized in the R&D dollar distribution.

 

[Maiaibing]

just like Canon, they are repositioning their ILC cameras to pick up the slack, which means GROWTH on the DSLR front. For both companies.

No. Canon expects their DSLR sales to crash with just over 11% this year according to their pre 2014 year-to-year market guidance. Since they have not sent out any corrections on projected sales for 2014 the general number should still be close to 8 mill. DSLR units 2014.

I think it is remarkable how Nikon DSLR sales exploded in 2013 given how Canon's are imploding from 2012 to 2013 and 2014. From being the undisputed market leader Canon will lag Nikon in DSLR sales by a margin in 2015 unless Canon reverses the current trend (if the Nikon numbers given above are correct).