Indeed. A recent similar
CR3 post stated, "We can reportedly expect to see the Canon RF 300mm f/2.8L IS USM some time in the first half of 2023." Instead of the CR3-graded prime, we saw a 100-300/2.8 zoom. Or how about the
CR3 statement that "Sigma will address the RF mount in 2022?" That was flat out wrong.
When CRguy posts a CR3 statement about a release happening in the subsequent week or two, he's typically spot on. But when he posts as CR3 about something months away, his track record is not as good. So while I think it's likely we will see a lens that covers 500/4 in the next 4-10 months, it could be a prime or a zoom, with or without a built-in TC. So I would not take a 200-500/4 as 'confirmed' any more than the 300/2.8 prime was confirmed.
I will also point out that the post mentions a 'nice teleconverter solution coming for both the 100-300 and 200-500 zooms' but I've read the relevant patents and they don't exemplify what many people seem to think they do. People have the impression there's a switchable 1.0x-1.4x-2.0x TC coming, but that is problematic from a physics standpoint and nothing like what the patent actually describes (which is an adapter to match image circle to sensor size). The other patent has at most two options and could be something like a 1.4x-2.0x switchable TC (i.e. a 1.4x with a flip-in 1.4x), but that design is rather ungainly to say the least.