The upcomming Dead of EOS DSLR / EF-line

[ethanz]

Remember what happened to Jon Snow. He died but was resurrected by some lady in red with a few spells. Those may be some parallels to the topic on hand.

 

[Mikehit]

well you seem to be happy with point and shoot ergonomis and no EVF in a mirrorless. ...i am not.

Who said I am? I don't own a M series camera and I make sure all cameras I buy have a VF.
I was talking about how popular the camera is and how that level of sales shows that many people do not seem to care about the things you find are so important. Unlike you I am not bringing my own personal prejudices to this discussion.

that is from one survey done in thailand.
i have seen the same surveys for germany, UK and france. with basically the same numbers.
when you are really interested you sure find a way to use google.

So I googled the phrase you quoted and found the reference. Did you read the footnote?

https://www.gfk.com/insights/press-...emand-for-mirrorless-cameras-in-thailand-gfk/

The online survey was completed by 540 respondents between 18 - 55 years of age who purchased a mirrorless camera such as Sony, Fujifilm, Canon and Olympus in the past 12 months. The survey also included those who intend to purchase one in the next 12 months.

How do they define 'mirrorless camera'? Interchangeable lens? Compact? MFT? APS-C? With or without EVF?
Maybe older people who have had a bit of experience with photography prefer DSLRs.
So I could interpret this as supporting my contention that people do not really care about the same functionality you do and that is why Canon sells well - it produces what people want not what Sony tell them they want.

 

[JonSnow]

But saying, "We have no idea what the future holds in terms of DSLR vs. Mirrorless sales" is obviously too boring for the internet geniuses. At the moment, there are advantages and disadvantages to Mirrorless. There is no evidence to support that Mirrorless is somehow a technological advance that will replace DSLRs - at this time. Only time will tell. Ho-hum.....

it´s probably cheaper to produce, faster, more reliable (flapping a mirror 30 times a second?).
a shorter flange distance offers advantages in lens design.
the AF will be better as far as we can tell.
you can magnify with an EVF.
the connection to the lens is faster, new RF mount offers more possibilities.
you can see way more infos in the viewfinder. not possible with traditional OVF. hybrid OVF would increase price.
you save the weight of the pentamirror/prism and the mirror.
no mirror vibration.
it´s silent... shall i go on?

what are exactly the benefits of an OVF?
needs no energy.

it the past you could say lag and resolution.
but that´s not a problem anymore (lag isn´t) and resolution should not be a problem.
and if you are insisting that resolution is still a problem that cripples your ability to take images.. it will not be in future EVF generations.

 

[JonSnow]

Who said I am? I don't own a M series camera and I make sure all cameras I buy have a VF.
I was talking about how popular the camera is and how that level of sales shows that many people do not seem to care about the things you find are so important.

i quote myself again:

for me the M models without a viewfinder are not a good mirrorless cameras. cameras that can compete with a REBEL.
and when we talk about the success of the KISS cameras (or NIKONS equivalent) and DSLR market share that is important.

that is why many people, who would have bought a "rebel like" canon mirrroless, then decided to buy a rebel instead of the less appealing EOS M.
because canon/nikon had nothing that could compete with a rebel at the same feature level.

you really want to tell me that you think that has no influence on how the mirrorless vs. DSLR numbers look?

Maybe older people who have had a bit of experience with photography prefer DSLRs.

what now you are agreeing with me? LOL
does it matter why they are more prone to stick to the OVF?

this is what i wrote....

one thing i noticed is that old DSLR users are clinging to the OVF way more than younger customers.
older DSLR users have a greater resistance to accept an EVF.

 

[Mikehit]

i quote myself again:

that is why many people, who would have bought a "rebel like" canon mirrroless, then decided to buy a rebel instead of the less appealing EOS M.
you really want to tell me that you think that has no influence on how the mirrorless vs. DSLR numbers look?

I am not denying that at all because there is no way to tell. I am one of those who think mirrorless is an evolution with its place and not a panacea that many seem to think, and that it has functions that sound great on the spec sheet but are low on peoples' priorities when buying a camera.
And what I was questioning was your assertion that Canon intentionally crippled the EOS-M to protect the KISS range (I believe it is more that Canon did not have the technology to make it better). And that in crippling it they had made 'no good [mirrorless] camera'. Whether there are better cameras are irrelevant to that point.

 

[JonSnow]

I am not denying that at all because there is no way to tell.

well is it more likely than not that a mirrorless 80D would have cut away away some sales from the traditional 80D?

i think so.

i think having a mirrorless option would see the traditional 80D sales drop quite a bit.

thinking that the DSLR is dominant because people prefer them, when both major players offer not much in terms of mirrorless in the bestselling segment, is maybe not correct.
and therefore you might see a quick change in markt share when both major player introduce APS-C models that can compete with the rebel line.

i for one will sure not buy another aps-c dslr.
when i buy aps-c it has to be mirrorless.

i am not buying a aps-c DSLR to accompany my 5D Mk4.
i am waiting for the next M5.

 

[Kit.]

well you seem to be happy with point and shoot ergonomics and no EVF in a mirrorless. ...i am not.

I am happy with point and shoot ergonomics on my point and shoot mirrorless cameras, thank you very much. And a camera for which I'd like to put more effort into shooting would better come with an OVF - at least for now.

that is from one survey done in thailand.
i have seen the same surveys for germany, UK and france. with basically the same numbers.
when you are really interested you sure find a way to use google.

I honestly don't see what is "whopping" in 41% of first-time whatever camera purchasers in Thailand being 25-34 years of age.

Looks like marketing BS to me, carrying the only message: "you are in this age bracket, you need to buy our product".

 

[ethanz]

I am happy with point and shoot ergonomics on my point and shoot mirrorless cameras, thank you very much. And a camera for which I'd like to put more effort into shooting would better come with an OVF - at least for now.


I honestly don't see what is "whopping" in 41% of first-time whatever camera purchasers in Thailand being 25-34 years of age.

Looks like marketing BS to me, carrying the only message: "you are in this age bracket, you need to buy our product".

Take a look at the age demographics for Thailand.

0-14 years: 16.93% (male 5,933,269/female 5,649,864)

15-24 years: 14.17% (male 4,943,583/female 4,752,038)

25-54 years: 46.32% (male 15,677,322/female 16,009,399)

55-64 years: 12% (male 3,851,575/female 4,358,837)

65 years and over: 10.58% (male 3,165,799/female 4,072,449) (2017 est.)

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/th.html

 

[JonSnow]

Looks like marketing BS to me, carrying the only message: "you are in this age bracket, you need to buy our product".

they have no product to sell....

btw: that screenshot is not related to the thailand survey.
it´s from a different survey done in america.

 

[fullstop]

mirrorslappers still around is almost entirely thanks to poor supply in the mirrorfree department. the problem is/was supply side, not demand side. agree 100% with that.

speaking of supply side: it is really weird that/why Sony would not bring some updated A5### and A6### APS-C camera models. it should not take vast R&D resources and should well be possible in parallel to churning out FF MILCs. no idea, why they basically leave the field to Canon EOS M and Fuji X system. stupid, Sony!

 

[neuroanatomist]

mirrorslappers still around is almost entirely thanks to poor supply in the mirrorfree department. the problem is/was supply side, not demand side. agree 100% with that.

Yes, we know. If only the Canon EOS AvTvMR and Nikon fullZstop models had been available for the past 5 years, DSLRs would be dead.

 

[cayenne]

Exactly. Mirrorless hype is driven in part by the fact that people don't bother to look at CIPA sales data. DSLRs out sell MILCs by a very wide margin.

I'm curious to see the impact of all the new MILC bodies being announced. But my guess is that we are still many years away from "the end of the DSLR", and in fact still years away from majority MILC sales globally.

As for me, Canon could have sold me an R if they had just included decent video specs. An R with solid video could have filled the roll of backup stills camera AND video camera using my Canon glass and offering me familiar ergonomics, color science, etc.

Take away the video and I'm left scratching my head as to why I should care about mirrorless. I'll just get another DSLR for backup stills.

Maybe Magic Lantern can get in there, and "unlock" the video on the new EOSR....?

 

[neuroanatomist]

i think so.

i think

i for one will
when i

i am not
i am

I think that if he had deployed a greater force on Wellington's right flank, Napoleon would have been victorious at Waterloo. But much like all of your thoughts, it didn’t happen that way.

 

[JonSnow]

we will look at the numbers in a few month. you can´t have a discussion with people who only post stupid one liners without substance.

 

[neuroanatomist]

we will look at the numbers in a few month. you can´t have a discussion with people who only post stupid one liners without substance.

That makes sense. You can’t hold a discussion with people who only post hypothetical conjecture without evidence to support their opinion, or people who ignore the relevant data previously posted.

 

[JonSnow]

That makes sense. You can’t hold a discussion with people who only post hypothetical conjecture without evidence to support their opinion.

or people who base their opinions about future developments on numbers from years past.

how is it driving in your ford T model while listening to music on your walkman?

i mean that all sold pretty well in the past.... LOL


ps: i am a tesla owner. i like new technologys.

 

[neuroanatomist]

or people who base their opinions about future developments on numbers from years past.

how is it driving in your ford T model while listening to music on your walkman?

i mean that all sold pretty well in the past.... LOL


ps: i am a tesla owner. i like new technologys.

Lol. In the context of forming opinions about future market share in an established market, you're saying it's better to base them on nothing or stuff you make up in your head, instead of data and facts? Well, you do you.

Hopefully your new technology doesn't fatally accelerate you into a highway barrier.

 

[JonSnow]

Lol. In the context of forming opinions about future market share in an established market, you're saying it's better to base them on nothing or stuff you make up in your head, instead of data and facts? Well, you do you.

you are not clairvoyant enough to know what i think.
so better don´t try.

your opinions are based on "everything will be fine and my beloved DSLR will be here forever".

what are your data and facts? alternative facts.. yeah maybe.
what is it that keeps the DSLR alive? what will be the advantage of having a new DSLR in 2028 instead of a mirrorless?

the fact that it sold better than mirrorless in the past years? so did VHS when i bought my first DVD player.

i say, look at other outdated technologies and what happend. do companys support them ad infinitum?

think about how canon will react when the production of EF lenses and DSLR cameras make no sense anymore.

why did canon stop supporting the FD mount?

oh i know that is not the same situation we are in right now.
you can´t compare that. blah blah....

the transition from EF to RF is easier today.
hell i can´t wait to use my TS-E 17mm on a mirrorless with EF adapter + ND filter.

 

[neuroanatomist]

your opinions are based on "everything will be fine and my beloved DSLR will be here forever".

Interesting that when I quoted you verbatim, you accuse me of putting words in your mouth. Please show me where I said anything even close to your above "quotation".

How does your assessment of the basis for my opinions align with the fact that I own three EOS M models and all the EF-M lenses?

Apparently you need to distort facts so they support your worldview or some other such nonsense. Good luck with that.

Incidentally, speaking of facts…how does the whopping 2% growth of MILC market share so far this year align with your worldview about the imminent dominance of mirrorless?

 

[JonSnow]

Interesting that when I quoted you verbatim, you accuse me of putting words in your mouth. Please show me where I said anything even close to your above "quotation".

maybe your bad influence made me do it.
i mean your napoleon gibberish made me all fuzzy....

Incidentally, speaking of facts…how does the whopping 2% growth of MILC market share so far this year align with your worldview about the imminent dominance of mirrorless?

so you predict a 2% growth of mirrorless market share in 2019. is that what you say?
mhm, still better than the rapid decline of DSLR market share in the past years.

oh wait.... you predict we reached a plateau for DSLR sales when mirroless market share will only grow 2%.
i wonder which DSLR cameras will compensate for the new sony, panasonic, fuji, nikon and canon mirrorless cameras.
will the 90D come soon? or maybe just price reduction and "SALE!" of rebels product. sell em cheap....

and what is the source for this number?

Apparently you need to distort facts

what facts? care to elaborate?

imminent dominance of mirrorless?

oh.. there it is again. when did i say imminent?
what does imminent mean for you....? the meaning may changes with age.

or maybe you just trying to ... what ... distort my words?

but i think maybe 10 years until we see no new EF mount camera. maybe just 6-7, but very unlikely.