The writing on the wall

[kdsand]

Blasphemy!!!

How on earth have you not been smitten to death yet is beyond me!
Lol!
I don't know the time frame but yes the mirror is destined to go. There is no doubt the Nikon Sony combination is a looming and ever present threat.

Canon's development of sensor, AF system, processor and glass is of maximum priority as I see it. If these stay relevant they can be implemented in numerous ways.

There are even contact lenses with digital overlay. Google was supposed to release like this month bluetooth glasses with l e d display superimposed. 8)

And while we're at it what the hell is that pancake lens 4? Hmmm?

 

[Warninglabel]

Ok folks, when will the next 5D/1Dx come out? Maybe in 3 years, many more, are you all saying that the technology is that slow? the cameras that just got release are here to stay for a while.

 

[Meh]

I respectfully disagree with the OP. Contrast-detect AF is not yet good enough to replace phase-detect AF and on that basis, and until there is a significant advancement, we are not approaching the end of the DSLR.

well sensor based phase AF could replace the current phase AF in a few years.

Possibly. I think it was Fuji (?) that had a decent crack at it a while back but even they admitted it had some drawbacks one of which being it had to mask off half of the pixels that were used for the AF in order to ascertain which side of the lens the ray-bundle is coming from. It's a relatively small number of pixels but it does technically affect IQ and on the highest-end cameras maybe we care. The sensor must also get hotter since it's always exposed to the light which could introduce more noise but I don't recall that being discussed. But yeah, that could be a way forward towards ditching the flipping mirrors.

 

[Canon-F1]

Ok folks, when will the next 5D/1Dx come out? Maybe in 3 years, many more, are you all saying that the technology is that slow? the cameras that just got release are here to stay for a while.

imo sensor design is slowing down.
today they are doing finetuning.

microlenses, faster read speed all fine, but how much does quantum efficiency increase?
as r.n clark wrote not much

Complications regarding the perceived performance of pixels, pixel size and sensor size in digital cameras over the last decade (about 2000 to 2009) is a significant refinement in technology. While the quantum efficiency of sensors in digital cameras has not really changed much, other factors that have improved include: fill factor (the fraction of a pixel that is sensitive to light), higher transmission of the filters over the sensor, better micro lenses, lower read noise, and lower fixed pattern noise.

you can´t expect huge jumps in sensor design today... well you can but that would be unrealistic.
making the sensitiv area of the sensor bigger (backlight, exmor) was a nice step but we will hit a wall sooner or later.

 

[Meh]

you can´t expect huge jumps in sensor design today... well you can but that would be unrealistic.
making the sensitiv area of the sensor bigger (backlight, exmor) was a nice step but we hit a wall sooner or later.

Absolutely correct.

 

[Meh]

Ok folks, when will the next 5D/1Dx come out? Maybe in 3 years, many more, are you all saying that the technology is that slow? the cameras that just got release are here to stay for a while.

Sorry, which side of this discussion are you on? You can be on as many sides as you want, I'm just confused if you're saying DSLRs are here to stay or done after this year?

 

[Warninglabel]

Ok folks, when will the next 5D/1Dx come out? Maybe in 3 years, many more, are you all saying that the technology is that slow? the cameras that just got release are here to stay for a while.

Sorry, which side of this discussion are you on? You can be on as many sides as you want, I'm just confused if you're saying DSLRs are here to stay or done after this year?

What I mean and will correct on my main post is no more new high end models other then maybe a few DSRLs like the rebel yearly event.

 

[moreorless]

Don't get me wrong I don't think they are completely behind Nikon or Sony I just don't see the advancement of 4 years in the 5D mark III and the AF was a joint investment in the 1Dx and 5D. I see a great future of possibilities with canon, I have the 5D Mark III on preorder and will love it (Coming from the 7d) I'm just saying technology is a fast pace and they had to being doing something else in the last 4 years for sure.

I'd say part of the issue here is that the tech that has been advancing in DSLR's for the last 15 years or so is starting to slow down, when you reach that stage each improvement in performance is going to come at a higher and higher price. The D4 for example really isnt that much of a leap from the D3s and the D800 clearly sacrifes other areas for its high resolution.

My feeling with mirrorless is that it isnt so much replacing DSLR's as it is creating a new market and I suspect Canon will try to tap into that rather than looking to go head to head with their own product. To some extent I do think mirrorless sales are something of a fad aswell, there is obviously a future to it but right now I think alot of buyers arent looking clearly at the benefits/disadvanatges but rather going with the "cool new tech".

 

[unkbob]

Sony is a much larger company than Canon.

Um, no. In terms of company value, Canon is 3 x as big as Sony and still twice as big as Sony + Nikon combined. Canon also has more employees than Sony, and Sony's camera department is just one part of its sprawling portfolio whereas it is the cornerstone of Canon's. And Canon currently makes a profit, Sony doesn't. Sony is not some huge corporation with infinite resources, they're struggling and focused firmly on consumer-orientated products, which is why they have - at least for now - abandoned the pro camera market.

 

[Astro]

Um, no. In terms of company value, Canon is 3 x as big as Sony and still twice as big as Sony + Nikon combined. Canon also has more employees than Sony

a few numbers form wikipedia:

sony = 168,200 employees
canon = 199,820 employees

sony net income = US $ -2.96 billion (2011)
canon net income = US $ 3.2 billion (2011)

 

[nitsujwalker]

Um, no. In terms of company value, Canon is 3 x as big as Sony and still twice as big as Sony + Nikon combined. Canon also has more employees than Sony

a few numbers form wikipedia:

sony = 168,200 employees
canon = 199,820 employees

sony net income = US $ -2.96 billion (2011)
canon net income = US $ 3.2 billion (2011)

+1

 

[Astro]

Sony is a much larger company than Canon.
.....
Canon doesn’t have the budget that Sony does
.....
Canon doesn’t have the money to invest fully in a dying technology as mirrored DSL’s. In fact, it’s hard to believe, but DSL’s with mirrors are done after this year.

well that is of course complete nonsense.

it´s even more nonsense as seeing sony as some electronic behemoth with bottomless resources.

with a little bit research and less guessing you would not have wasted so much time writing this together.

 

[kdsand]

Um, no. In terms of company value, Canon is 3 x as big as Sony and still twice as big as Sony + Nikon combined. Canon also has more employees than Sony

a few numbers form wikipedia:

sony = 168,200 employees
canon = 199,820 employees

sony net income = US $ -2.96 billion (2011)
canon net income = US $ 3.2 billion (2011)

+1

Does this mean that nobody here needs to defend Canon's high prices?
???

 

[Astro]

Does this mean that nobody here needs to defend Canon's high prices?

depends.... if your a shareholder and want a profit instead of a loss it seems canon is doing it right.

 

[nitsujwalker]

Um, no. In terms of company value, Canon is 3 x as big as Sony and still twice as big as Sony + Nikon combined. Canon also has more employees than Sony

a few numbers form wikipedia:

sony = 168,200 employees
canon = 199,820 employees

sony net income = US $ -2.96 billion (2011)
canon net income = US $ 3.2 billion (2011)

+1

Does this mean that nobody here needs to defend Canon's high prices?
???

I would love for Canon to have lower prices but am also happy that they aren't losing money. I don't believe that they have always been overpriced, but the trend with new lenses and the 5Diii seem to show it's going that way. That said, Nikon lenses cost an arm and a leg as do several other brands. Looking at the specs of the 5Diii i'd rather pay the $500 extra and purchase it over the D800. This is just my 2 cents. Overpriced? Probably.. Still going to buy stuff from them? Probably.

 

[kdsand]

Um, no. In terms of company value, Canon is 3 x as big as Sony and still twice as big as Sony + Nikon combined. Canon also has more employees than Sony

a few numbers form wikipedia:

sony = 168,200 employees
canon = 199,820 employees

sony net income = US $ -2.96 billion (2011)
canon net income = US $ 3.2 billion (2011)

+1

Does this mean that nobody here needs to defend Canon's high prices?
???

I would love for Canon to have lower prices but am also happy that they aren't losing money.

well I guess you could say 3.2 billion profit means the arnt loosing money ;D

I don't believe that they have always been overpriced, but the trend with new lenses and the 5Diii seem to show it's going that way. That said, Nikon lenses cost an arm and a leg as do several other brands. Looking at the specs of the 5Diii i'd rather pay the $500 extra and purchase it over the D800. This is just my 2 cents. Overpriced? Probably.. Still going to buy stuff from them? Probably.

 

[Meh]

I would love for Canon to have lower prices but am also happy that they aren't losing money. I don't believe that they have always been overpriced, but the trend with new lenses and the 5Diii seem to show it's going that way. That said, Nikon lenses cost an arm and a leg as do several other brands. Looking at the specs of the 5Diii i'd rather pay the $500 extra and purchase it over the D800. This is just my 2 cents. Overpriced? Probably.. Still going to buy stuff from them? Probably.

Probably? You must have more self control than I do... Canon will definitely be getting more of money... I really can't do anything to prevent that, it's like an addiction really, I can't stop. Help me.

 

[Warninglabel]

I would love for Canon to have lower prices but am also happy that they aren't losing money. I don't believe that they have always been overpriced, but the trend with new lenses and the 5Diii seem to show it's going that way. That said, Nikon lenses cost an arm and a leg as do several other brands. Looking at the specs of the 5Diii i'd rather pay the $500 extra and purchase it over the D800. This is just my 2 cents. Overpriced? Probably.. Still going to buy stuff from them? Probably.

Probably? You must have more self control than I do... Canon will definitely be getting more of money... I really can't do anything to prevent that, it's like an addiction really, I can't stop. Help me.

I would have to agree, my wife will kill me before the end of the year.

 

[kdsand]

I would love for Canon to have lower prices but am also happy that they aren't losing money. I don't believe that they have always been overpriced, but the trend with new lenses and the 5Diii seem to show it's going that way. That said, Nikon lenses cost an arm and a leg as do several other brands. Looking at the specs of the 5Diii i'd rather pay the $500 extra and purchase it over the D800. This is just my 2 cents. Overpriced? Probably.. Still going to buy stuff from them? Probably.

Probably? You must have more self control than I do... Canon will definitely be getting more of money... I really can't do anything to prevent that, it's like an addiction really, I can't stop. Help me.

Perhaps we should have something like AAA.
Would you like some one to be your sponsor?
Volunteers?

 

[unfocused]

I'm not going to smite the OP or anything. He's entitled to his opinion, I just wish he had done a little more critical thinking and a bit of fact-checking.

Most of the others have pointed out many of the things that went through my mind: comparing Sony and Canon is an apples to oranges comparison. Sony is probably not the right company to pick to illustrate that somehow Canon is doing things wrong – how's that 3D television working out?

Are DSLRs dinosaurs that will someday become obsolete? Yes. Might not be in my lifetime, but almost everything becomes obsolete sooner or later.

Point and shoots are definitely on the endangered species list. Go to any tourist attraction and compare the number of persons using cell phones to the number using point and shoots. Now compare that today to what it was just two years ago.

Honestly, what difference does it make if some other form factor becomes more successful than the DSLR. If it fits my needs, I'll switch over. But, I don't see anything on the horizon that interests me. I am absolutely uninterested in an viewfinder-less camera. And, from the reviews I've read of both the GX and the Fuji X10, I don't think they've got the kinks worked out yet either.

So, in the meantime, I'll keep using my 7D and anxiously await the next generation.