The writing on the wall

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Hello All, This is a living post and as we discuss things on this topic I will try to update it. This topic is really about Mirror less tech and sensors, please keep that in mind

Thank you.

For some weeks now I have been trying to figure out what Canon has been doing the past 4 years. Was the set back from the floods in Thailand that crippling for their R&D department, or was it their IPhone or Android devices in their pockets. I’ve looked at the IPhone 4′s a few weeks ago and took some pictures, pretty good pictures in fact, so good I used them in a brochure for work. So, was this the technology blocking Canon’s future or was it something else altogether different? Maybe… it was just a combination of numerous things or it could have been Sony.

Let’s go over some stuff about Sony here. Did you know that Sony makes the sensors in Nikon D800/D800E, yep, if you want to read more about their sensor go here. So, Nikon just builds the camera and components around the Sony 36mp sensor. What does Canon do, well they design/ build their sensor with Canons own R&D department. So why does this matter, the reasons is money. Sony is a much larger company than Canon.

Astro said:
unkbob said:
Um, no. In terms of company value, Canon is 3 x as big as Sony and still twice as big as Sony + Nikon combined. Canon also has more employees than Sony

a few numbers form wikipedia:

sony = 168,200 employees
canon = 199,820 employees

sony net income = US $ -2.96 billion (2011)
canon net income = US $ 3.2 billion (2011)

I stand corrected Sony is losing their @#$es ;)


With Sony and Nikon working together, they’re developing faster sensor technology. I know what you’re thinking, so how does this affect Canon? Well, Canon doesn’t have the money to invest fully in a dying technology as mirrored DSL’s. In fact, it’s hard to believe, but DSL’s with mirrors are done after this year. We will see the last of them from now to the end of this year. (2012, in my opinion) I’m not saying they won’t be selling them the next 3 years, but the 5D3 and the 1dx have a life span of 3-4 years and mirror less should have advance enough by then.

So, now you might be seeing where I’m going with this. But are we afraid of mirror less DSL’s as photographers? People hate change, especially the older we get, sure there are people that want it right now, but most just don’t understand how it will affect their work. They are so used to mirrored DSLR’s some might think they have to completely change their work flow. Also, the question will be whether the mirror less actually be on par with mirrored DSLR’s or better with the first generation? I really don’t know the answer to that and I’m not going to tell you it is, but will it be slight improvement? It better be, and it really has to be, because people won’t support it fast enough and Canon will lose to competitors like Sony that already has their first gen Nex 7 mirror less DSL out and it’s selling very well.

So what has Canon been doing over the last 4 years? Well, they have better been developing mirror less technologies for their DSL’s, and with the release of the 5D Mark III and hopefully Canon is secretly telling us that. A lot of people aren’t happy with the improvements of the 5D Mark III over its older brother Mark II. But Canon knows it has to secure its future or be obsolete and they can’t afford to invest in another 3 year cycle camera. They are behind Sony already. Canon doesn’t have the budget that Sony does. Canon had to bring out the Canon 5D Mark III to please the Canon folks or lose most of its customers to Nikon. They know their customers have invested heavily in glass and they needed to protect them with something like the merge of the Canon 7D and the 5D, but Canon knew they would lose some of them, maybe not at the extent as reported by posters in forums, but overall Canon did the right thing here. It was very smart, but they can’t have any setbacks, they must move forward at an accelerated pace.

So will there be any more Canon camera’s this year? I would say yes. The 4k DSLR that’s been reported and maybe the first blockbuster announcement of the mirror less Rebel XTi, lol, Just kidding about that one , but I don’t see a 7D Mark II, I might be wrong. It is still a great camera and now the 5D Mark III that has kind of merged the two together. Anyway this is only my opinion folks, but you can see the writing on the wall. Hopefully, Canon’s leadership has the vision to move forward like we all should. So how do you guys feel?
 
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PhilDrinkwater

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I think if mirrored DSLRs become obsolete in the next few years, I'll happily give you £500 out of my pocket. I disagree that Canon is significantly behind - they just focus on other things. They have (on paper) the best focussing system on the market. That can't have been cheap. Their sensor tech is proving to hold up well as far as the first round of tests seem to have gone, but further tests will show things up too.

I also think the whole MP discussion is largely irrelevant. They could if they wanted to.

So, sorry, I completely disagree with nearly everything you said :) But it's good to talk...
 
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I am sure they are working on mirrorless concept and I am certain that eventually the mirror box will fade in history but we are quite a few years away from that. Especially considering that the DSLR market still continues to peak.

If you are looking for prophecies of doom, I'd say that the P&S will be abandoned in favor of phones much sooner than the DSLR.
 
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Don't get me wrong I don't think they are completely behind Nikon or Sony I just don't see the advancement of 4 years in the 5D mark III and the AF was a joint investment in the 1Dx and 5D. I see a great future of possibilities with canon, I have the 5D Mark III on preorder and will love it (Coming from the 7d) I'm just saying technology is a fast pace and they had to being doing something else in the last 4 years for sure.
 
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photophreek

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Posted by: Warninglabel
but I don’t see a 7D Mark II, I might be wrong. It is still a great camera and now the 5D Mark III that has kind of merged the two together.

I've read this comment a few times about the so called merging of two different cameras. The buyers of these cameras are different with some overlap and price points are not the same. Is it because the 5D 3 has an AF system based on the 7D or that the two cameras look somewhat the same?

FWIW, and based on the points I have mentioned, I think there will be a next gen 7d with the potential of positive sales volume for the buyers who can't afford the 5D 3 or the additional L lenses. When the 5D 3 was announced, Canon made no mention of the 7D merging with the 5D 3 as it did when th 1D X was announced.

Please explain how you came to this conclusion.
 
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You don't have to say "Mirrored DSLR", The "R" in DSLR covers that. Also, a mirror-less camera is NOT a DSLR. I believe it is an electronic viewfinder interchangeable lens camera.

I'm not sure Canon is behind anyone. When I watch a sporting event, I see a TON of white lenses all over the place. I don't think there will be many Sony Nex 7 cameras covering the Olympics either.

I don't have figures to back this up, but I do believe Canon is the market leader, and has been for quite some time.

There is a place for the mirror-less cameras. I'm sure they will take over the consumer market in the future. But I don't the think the focusing speed or accuracy is even close for it to go pro.
 
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Marsu42

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pdirestajr said:
You don't have to say "Mirrored DSLR", The "R" in DSLR covers that. Also, a mirror-less camera is NOT a DSLR. I believe it is an electronic viewfinder interchangeable lens camera.
But there is a DSLR without a flipping mirror - like in my good ol' Canon RT it's a semi-transparent one, you can actually see what you shoot and phase af would even work on live view. And the reaction time is much faster, on the RT you just have to breathe at the shutter release button to take a picture.

Since this system eats light, I hope updated sensor tech with lower iso noise will bring this system back. So even without a real mirror, there is hope for the ef lens ecosystem and for our investments.
 
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photophreek said:
Posted by: Warninglabel
but I don’t see a 7D Mark II, I might be wrong. It is still a great camera and now the 5D Mark III that has kind of merged the two together.

I've read this comment a few times about the so called merging of two different cameras. The buyers of these cameras are different with some overlap and price points are not the same. Is it because the 5D 3 has an AF system based on the 7D or that the two cameras look somewhat the same?

FWIW, and based on the points I have mentioned, I think there will be a next gen 7d with the potential of positive sales volume for the buyers who can't afford the 5D 3 or the additional L lenses. When the 5D 3 was announced, Canon made no mention of the 7D merging with the 5D 3 as it did when th 1D X was announced.

Please explain how you came to this conclusion.

I have a 7D and love it, but what is the 7D, a entry level sports DSLR crop sensor with great and fast 19-AF 8 FPS this camera is still relevant right now, there really isn't anything comparable with it's speed and anyways how much can it be improved by what we already have and how much? Will they give it more then 19 pts, 20mp and higher IOS, maybe. But how much would you pay, the price will be higher and what if canon rumors is right and there is No 7D Mark II? [CR1] in this post http://www.canonrumors.com/2012/02/no-7d-mark-ii-cr1-2/ but it is just a rumor ;)
 
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HurtinMinorKey said:
Sony is a bigger company, but they are not exactly overflowing with cash for R&D. There is a reason their stock prices diverge(see below). It's in large part because Sony is operating at a loss and Canon is not.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=CAJ&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=SNE

btw, I have never bought anything from sony other then a Camcorder ;) I have really never like the company. I have look @ some of their TV's but never pick them over anyone else.
 
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nvsravank

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Feb 2, 2012
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DSLR are not going away until the AF speed of other solutions come up to the speed of the current optical based technologies.

Sony's technology is the best i have heard so far in AF speed but it is still at least a revolution away from the DSLR AF speed. If it were an evolution away, i would have agreed with you about DSLR fading in 2 to 3 years, but it is not. So i expect around 6 years at least. 3 years for the technology to advance and the technologists to find a better solution for AF that is revolutionary from current technologies and can match the DSLR AF speeds.

For technological bent, I am talking about moving away from Phase detection to something new. The contrast measurement technology does not have the ability to identify front focus and back focus and so cannot track focus for continuous focusing needed for many shooting situations where fast action happens.

The LYTRO light field technology might be something that might be useful if we can combine that technology with the regular camera technology. Just a thought
 
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nitsujwalker

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Speculation is all in good fun.. I love my 7D and enjoy shooting birds, surfing and other sports. I am also interested in mirrorless cameras, but there are no good solutions for telephoto and fast autofocus right now. Yes, several cameras have fast autofocus, but no good telephoto options. Until these two can converge there will be a need for DSLRs (at least for me). I believe it will take more than a few years for the market and converge and do away with DSLRs. That said, I may pick up a mirrorless for when I don't want to carry a big camera.
 
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Sony is a very large corporation; but the sensor group is only a small piece of the overall picture. They only get their share of the resources. And certainly there is a Profit/Loss the Sony Director has to account for when that group looks for budget every year.

And what is Sony's agenda? They tend to be a consumer company. Does it make sense for them to be putting huge resources in pro-level sensors? Maybe in some ways; or they benefit somewhat from the television/broadcasting/digital film group - I dont know how their internal structure is organized.

Does Sony and Nikon have the same agenda? What happens if Sony grows disinterested in pro-level sensors? What if the 36 mp sensor was Sony's decision based on consumer-high-mp goals and did that influence Nikon's design?

Canon has a benefit here. While consumer is huge, they remain dedicated to pro-level technology.

Just questions.
 
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Meh

Sep 20, 2011
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I respectfully disagree with the OP. Contrast-detect AF is not yet good enough to replace phase-detect AF and on that basis, and until there is a significant advancement, we are not approaching the end of the DSLR. Canon is sufficiently large to conduct world-class sensor R&D and their market share is large enough to not need to partner with Sony. A more important question is why does Sony want to partner with Nikon... most likely answer is because their market share and volume in DSLRs is too low to justify the investment and despite their size they are struggling in many areas... I believe they admitted a while back they are losing money on every TV sold, they are not doing very well in computers, they are small in DSLR cameras and don't have the lenses, they are not what they once were in consumer music devices (i.e. walkman/mp3 players), their margins are small on other consumer electronics. Sony does well in consumer P&S, camcorders, cinema cams, and Sony Music does well I believe.

The writing on the wall is that Canon continues to be the dominant high-end camera producer, has the size and patience to see what will happen with mirrorless, and doesn't have to jump on to new trends too earlier. Contrary to certain business wisdom... being first to market with a new product is not usually a recipe for success unless a barrier to entry and/or serious market share can be developed before competitors can rise up. So Canon can be comfortable waiting to see how the market plays out for mirrorless or other new trends and win by being late but getting it right. Look at Noink (love it Brian!) and their V1/J1 how is that doing? Bleh.

Flipping mirrors won't go away anytime soon. Sony resurrected the SLT concept to be different but it's no utopia... if one wants the best low-light camera for example... well, the SLT system loses almost a stop of light during image capture and the extra glass isn't helping image quality.
 
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pdirestajr said:
You don't have to say "Mirrored DSLR", The "R" in DSLR covers that. Also, a mirror-less camera is NOT a DSLR. I believe it is an electronic viewfinder interchangeable lens camera.

You are right I just got to excited it like I always call a pop a Coke

pdirestajr said:
I'm not sure Canon is behind anyone. When I watch a sporting event, I see a TON of white lenses all over the place. I don't think there will be many Sony Nex 7 cameras covering the Olympics either.

Correct!! I'm not saying canon is, but if canon would have made these camera 30% better then the competition they would have and could have I just saying they have to be working on something else.
pdirestajr said:
I don't have figures to back this up, but I do believe Canon is the market leader, and has been for quite some time.

There is a place for the mirror-less cameras. I'm sure they will take over the consumer market in the future. But I don't the think the focusing speed or accuracy is even close for it to go pro.

I never said anything about Sony Nex-7 kicking Canon butt, they're on to something, no moving parts and just a sensor to update, should be pretty fast techno.
 
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