Petapixel Predictions on the Canon R1

[frankchn]

I've been listening to the petapixel podcast this week and there is some speculation about the R1 about 30 minutes in.

Their editor-in-chief (Jaron Schneider) mentioned that he heard rumors that Canon had an FF global shutter sensor ready to go a year ago, but was struggling with "something" in the rest of the camera.

He says he also believes that the issue to be throughput, i.e. Canon's current image processing pipeline can't deal with the volume of data coming off the sensor (which might make sense if every pixel also has to be DPAF, so you are looking at twice the amount of sensor data coming off the sensor than a traditional sensor).

Further he has also heard that Canon was "extremely disappointed and upset" that Sony launched the A9III with a global shutter, and finally he (and Gordon Laing from Camera Labs agrees) thinks that Sony launched the A9III so early is to steal Canon's thunder about an upcoming GS sensor-based camera launch.

No idea what to make out of it, but interesting to hear their opinions.

 

[Bahrd]

Looks like a slightly modernized version of the Greek mythology.
Even EOS fits into the scheme!

 

[SHAMwow]

On one hand, the length of development for this camera gives some credibility to the idea what it has global shutter. But based on historical trends and releases, I think people will be very disappointed if they're hoping for that. It just isn't Canon to release something like that.

 

[EricN]

I've been listening to the petapixel podcast this week and there is some speculation about the R1 about 30 minutes in.

Their editor-in-chief (Jaron Schneider) mentioned that he heard rumors that Canon had an FF global shutter sensor ready to go a year ago, but was struggling with "something" in the rest of the camera.

He says he also believes that the issue to be throughput, i.e. Canon's current image processing pipeline can't deal with the volume of data coming off the sensor (which might make sense if every pixel also has to be DPAF, so you are looking at twice the amount of sensor data coming off the sensor than a traditional sensor).

Further he has also heard that Canon was "extremely disappointed and upset" that Sony launched the A9III with a global shutter, and finally he (and Gordon Laing from Camera Labs agrees) thinks that Sony launched the A9III so early is to steal Canon's thunder about an upcoming GS sensor-based camera launch.

No idea what to make out of it, but interesting to hear their opinions.

It's fun to think about but I doubt this mainly because it's unlikely Canon would consider allowing R1 to be as noisy as the A9III or outside of marketing division anyone cares about bragging rights on being first.

 

[frankchn]

It's fun to think about but I doubt this mainly because it's unlikely Canon would consider allowing R1 to be as noisy as the A9III or outside of marketing division anyone cares about bragging rights on being first.

To be fair, the reviewers would be mostly in contact with marketing and PR (as opposed to engineering), so it would make sense that their sense of what is happening in Canon comes from there.

 

[EricN]

To be fair, the reviewers would be mostly in contact with marketing and PR (as opposed to engineering), so it would make sense that their sense of what is happening in Canon comes from there.

It's a valid point

 

[Fixxxer]

I saw the video the other day. I really doubt that Canon comes with a global shutter stacked sensor for the EOS R1 (that doesn't mean their engineers aren't working on a FF global shutter stacked sensor). The actual Canon's R3 stacked sensor readout speed is so fast that fills the needs of 99.99999% of the professional sports/action photographers.

Maybe i'm totally wrong, but for the R1 i'd expect it to have an even faster 33-ish MPX stacked sensor, great low light performance and improved dynamic range, which —as a working professional— makes more sense to me than a global shutter sensor with crippled dynamic range.

 

[jam05]

On one hand, the length of development for this camera gives some credibility to the idea what it has global shutter. But based on historical trends and releases, I think people will be very disappointed if they're hoping for that. It just isn't Canon to release something like that.

Although the same was said exactly about the R5 having 8k. And Canon surprised everyone. With the R1 being it's flagship, I sincerely doubt Canon wants the hugh dynamic range loss blowback that the A9III received. Canon marketing noticed allthe negative blowback that the A9III received for its reduced ISO along witht he huge hit in dynamic range.

 

[DhlcadR6]

I saw the video the other day. I really doubt that Canon comes with a global shutter stacked sensor for the EOS R1 (that doesn't mean their engineers aren't working on a FF global shutter stacked sensor). The actual Canon's R3 stacked sensor readout speed is so fast that fills the needs of 99.99999% of the professional sports/action photographers.

Maybe i'm totally wrong, but for the R1 i'd expect it to have an even faster 33-ish MPX stacked sensor, great low light performance and improved dynamic range, which —as a working professional— makes more sense to me than a global shutter sensor with crippled dynamic range.

I think Canon will give the GS to R3ii. Ultrafast sensor for sports and flash photography is a niche. Personally I would say R1 stick with 50+MP stacked CMOS with 30~40fps, video spec similar to Z9.

 

[DhlcadR6]

I have a feeling Gordon has hands onto the R1 but under NDA...He is spreading wrong views just to not get into trouble.

 

[Quack]

I think Canon will give the GS to R3ii. Ultrafast sensor for sports and flash photography is a niche. Personally I would say R1 stick with 50+MP stacked CMOS with 30~40fps, video spec similar to Z9.

I agree that the R1 will be a higher MP camera than the R3 (my guess is 45mp), and for that reason I agree it will be stacked. I think it is pretty clear that having global shutter and an MP count more than about 24 MP is not yet possible.

 

[Jethro]

I have a feeling Gordon has hands onto the R1 but under NDA...He is spreading wrong views just to not get into trouble.

I think if Gordon had an R1 under an NDA, he'd be saying Absolutely Nothing At All about it at this stage. My suspicion is that only a largish handful of pro users have pre-production models at the moment, and that will be more about them familiarising themselves with the body pre-announcement, and giving any late feedback they have on the firmware and menus etc.

But if there is going to be an announcement in Jan / Feb, yes, they will need to get copies to the reviewers in the NY.

 

[Del Paso]

I think if Gordon had an R1 under an NDA, he'd be saying Absolutely Nothing At All about it at this stage. My suspicion is that only a largish handful of pro users have pre-production models at the moment, and that will be more about them familiarising themselves with the body pre-announcement, and giving any late feedback they have on the firmware and menus etc.

But if there is going to be an announcement in Jan / Feb, yes, they will need to get copies to the reviewers in the NY.

I too think that what matters to Canon is less the Internet reviewer's opinion, than what actual pro users like or dislike. Canon, unlike Sony, build cameras for users, not for specs fetishists.
Therefore, I strongly doubt reviewers had the R1 in hands, unlike selected pro users. Their opinion is what matters in this gear category!

 

[Michael Clark]

I think Canon will give the GS to R3ii. Ultrafast sensor for sports and flash photography is a niche. Personally I would say R1 stick with 50+MP stacked CMOS with 30~40fps, video spec similar to Z9.

Canon's dominance of the sports/action "niche" since the mid-1990s is based almost entirely on their early introduction of USM in 1987 with the EF 300mm f/2.8 L USM and its superior speed, accuracy, and near-silent Ultra-Sonic Motor over Nikon's body based, slow and noisy, screw drive AF motor technology which also suffered from mechanical "play" and the need for frequent adjustment to compensate for the wear and tear of usage. Once the pro-level EOS-1 body followed in 1989 it was off to the races, as well as to tennis, football (both kinds), basketball, baseball, swimming, gymnastics, figure skating, motor sports, horse racing, etc.

Canon then successfully leveraged the popularity of their USM AF system, along with all-electronic aperture control, among the leading sports photographers "niche" to market the EOS system to entry level buyers. Remember those 1990 Andre Agassi TV ads telling everyone they could shoot as fast with an EOS Rebel (usually sold with non-USM "kit" lenses) as he hit the tennis ball?

By the time Nikon had comparable Silent Wave autofocus in the late 1990s it was all over but the shouting for at least the next 20 years.

Maybe there's just a bit of concern that Global Shutter will give Sony a similar advantage for the highly visible (though rapidly shrinking) sports/action sector?

Or maybe the primary arena for contesting market dominance has shifted from sports/action events to YouTube reviewers? Maybe Canon recognizes, based on the emergence of Sony in the FF MILC market with cameras that, for the first two generations, were essentially beta products until well after they had been on the market for months due to how YouTubers are more enthralled with spec sheets than total system performance. No one seemed to care that Sony's AF was inferior to Canon when the YouTubers told everyone that Dynamic Range was all that mattered. Your sports/action images taken with a 1st or 2nd generation Sony might be a blurry mess, but at least they weren't as - (GASP!) - NOISY as frame after frame of well focused shots from Canon's pro bodies.

 

[EricN]

I too think that what matters to Canon is less the Internet reviewer's opinion, than what actual pro users like or dislike. Canon, unlike Sony, build cameras for users, not for specs fetishists.
Therefore, I strongly doubt reviewers had the R1 in hands, unlike selected pro users. Their opinion is what matters in this gear category!

Speaking of fetishists, @LensSodomist didn't come back since October. I hope he/she didn't have an accident with a 100-300mm 2.8.

 

[neuroanatomist]

No one seemed to care that Sony's AF was inferior to Canon when the YouTubers told everyone that Dynamic Range was all that mattered. Your sports/action images taken with a 1st or 2nd generation Sony might be a blurry mess, but at least they weren't as - (GASP!) - NOISY as frame after frame of well focused shots from Canon's pro bodies.

Your sardonic response aside, I'd suggest that people who actually buy Canon cameras were not strongly influenced by said 'influencers', since Canon's market share remained essentially unaffected.

 

[EricN]

Canon's dominance of the sports/action "niche" since the mid-1990s is based almost entirely on their early introduction of USM in 1987 with the EF 300mm f/2.8 L USM and its superior speed, accuracy, and near-silent Ultra-Sonic Motor over Nikon's body based, slow and noisy, screw drive AF motor technology which also suffered from mechanical "play" and the need for frequent adjustment to compensate for the wear and tear of usage. Once the pro-level EOS-1 body followed in 1989 it was off to the races, as well as to tennis, football (both kinds), basketball, baseball, swimming, gymnastics, figure skating, motor sports, horse racing, etc.

Canon then successfully leveraged the popularity of their USM AF system, along with all-electronic aperture control, among the leading sports photographers "niche" to market the EOS system to entry level buyers. Remember those 1990 Andre Agassi TV ads telling everyone they could shoot as fast with an EOS Rebel (usually sold with non-USM "kit" lenses) as he hit the tennis ball?

By the time Nikon had comparable Silent Wave autofocus in the late 1990s it was all over but the shouting for at least the next 20 years.

Maybe there's just a bit of concern that Global Shutter will give Sony a similar advantage for the highly visible (though rapidly shrinking) sports/action sector?

Or maybe the primary arena for contesting market dominance has shifted from sports/action events to YouTube reviewers? Maybe Canon recognizes, based on the emergence of Sony in the FF MILC market with cameras that, for the first two generations, were essentially beta products until well after they had been on the market for months due to how YouTubers are more enthralled with spec sheets than total system performance. No one seemed to care that Sony's AF was inferior to Canon when the YouTubers told everyone that Dynamic Range was all that mattered. Your sports/action images taken with a 1st or 2nd generation Sony might be a blurry mess, but at least they weren't as - (GASP!) - NOISY as frame after frame of well focused shots from Canon's pro bodies.

Maybe the Earth is flat

 

[Quack]

Your sardonic response aside, I'd suggest that people who actually buy Canon cameras were not strongly influenced by said 'influencers', since Canon's market share remained essentially unaffected.

I think there is a strong possibility that Canon's continuing sale of inexpensive DSLR Rebels is a large factor in their steady market share dominance. Assuming those DSLRs no longer exist in 5 years, and only mirrorless cameras are available, it's not so clear whether Canon or Sony will be the industry leader. I would not underestimate the power of the influencers and social media. For this generation of folks getting their first real camera, and the next, Facebook, YouTube and the like will be their main (and possibly only) source of information (which all too often means MIS-information). As was pointed out, the first 2 generations of Sony FF mirrorless cameras were essentially Beta versions, which basically means they ripped off their customers. Despite that, they sold very well and developed an extremely loyal fanbase. I would contend it was Sony's strong internet presence that allowed them to succeed with an obviously inferior product.

 

[Maximilian]

Looks like a slightly modernized version of the Greek mythology.
Even EOS fits into the scheme!

Thanks for making my day. I had a good laugh

 

[Maximilian]

I've been listening to the petapixel podcast this week and there is some speculation about the R1 about 30 minutes in.
...

TLDR: clickbait for no info at all