I've read these posts with great interest, both the for and against DSLR's and their logevity.
No, DSLR's will not go away, not in my lifetime and probably not in your's either.
One thing no-one has been asking about is the value for money aspect of the mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras.
Have you seen the prices of them and their lenses and other accessories?
For what you get, they are ridiculously overpriced.
After all, most of them are just a point and squirt camera, with small sensors and slow auto-focus, poor high ISO quality, questionable handling, and they all cost far more than the entry level DSLR's!
The people who are buying them, and they are only a very small percentage of interchangeable lens camera buyers (about 10% in the US) and I would say most of these are buying them as a step up from a P&S, and so they think they're cool, but not many DLSR owners are changing their cameras for a Mirrorless that I know of.
I would imagine that most of these mirrorless buyers are wanting is really made perfect by the Canon G1x.
It has a larger than normal sensor for a P&S, has a great lens and good IQ for what it is, and it doesn't cost an arm or a leg, like a decent mirrorless camera costs, and the included lens covers probably 90% of what people use, rather than having to buy 3 or 4 prime lenses at great expense.
Once you've been used to looking through a good OVF, holding a small camera with a huge lens out in front of you trying to see the image on a poor quality LCD screen in bright sun, and waiting for the thing to focus and getting a good shot, will be a frustrating experience.
I know it was for me when I tried out a few of these new cameras, and considering what you can buy in a DSLR for less money, I wasn't convinced at all.
IF thes emirrorless cameras are priced somewhere between a P&S and an entry level DSLR, then they can start taking big slices of the market, but at their current costs, I very much doubt they will have much impact.
The Nikon J1 and V1 sold strongly for the first few weeks here in OZ, but now they are just sitting on the shelves gathering dust.
The new Fuji looks really good, but you can buy a Canon 5D MkII for less money!
Nikon has a big problem, and that problem is a heavy reliance on Sony.
As Sony is losing money hand over fist right now, and their camera sales are really pretty poor in most countries, there is a chance that Sony will be forced, by its board and shareholders, to cut costs and get rid of loss-makeing areas of the business like thier DSLR's.
If that happens, Nikon will be in real trouble as it doesn't have the resources to make their own high quality sensors, and without the sales of Sony DSLR's, Sony may decide that the volumes they make for Nikon are just not enough to keep this sensor business viable either.
You must have noticed that Sony bring out a camera using virtually every sensor that Nikon uses, haven't you?
Pentax also relies heavily on Sony sensors.
I've been in manufacturing for 40 years, and know full-well that you can't be reliant on just one manufacturer for vital components, becausae if that supplier has a hiccup, it can ruin your business.
What will happen to Nikon and Pentax if Sony goes down?
I'm not saying they will, but even huge companies, like Kodak, GM, Chrysler etc can falter.
