A Breakdown of Rumors

[Canon Rumors Guy]

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<strong>Opinion

</strong>Below is an update of the current state of rumors surrounding camera bodies. Most of what’s below is opinion, or clarification of what’s going on.</p>
<p><strong>1Ds Mark IV

</strong>I was told a <a href="http://www.canonrumors.com/2010/09/canon-nikon-flagships-in-2011/">long time ago</a> that a 1Ds Mark IV (or similar) camera would not arrive until late 2011 or early 2012 and would be 40+ megapixels. It would be a “big departure” from the current 1Ds line.</p>
<p>There’s been no information on the line that I’d call factual yet, the information I have been told seems to lead to a new type of camera on top of the Canon lineup.</p>
<p><strong>1D Mark V

</strong>We’ve heard a lot about the amalgamation of the 1D/1Ds line over the years. It’s been a lot stronger in the last 6 months. It was over 6 months ago that <a href="http://www.canonrumors.com/2010/12/the-canon-high-end-cr2/">I was first told </a>a new 1D would arrive before any 1Ds replacement.</p>
<p>I personally think most spec lists recently have been wish lists more than fact, however I post them anyway just in case. I suspect we’ll have better information in the coming week or so.</p>
<p>All signs point to this camera, more than any other.</p>
<p><strong>5D Mark III

</strong>Everything I get now says it’s a 2012 camera. Most likely in the February timeframe.</p>
<p>There’s a lot of rumblings about the line splitting into 2 models, nothing concrete though. If this camera was coming this month, I believe we’d hear a lot more about it.</p>

 

[EYEONE]

How could you forget to mention the 7D Mark2 in your summary?!?!?!

Because there are no real rumors about a 7D2

 

[dswatson83]

I guess 2011 will not be a big year for canon. I think they have begun to slack off a little. Their last even somewhat decent camera, the 60D (which I own) is a little bit of a letdown on focusing, build, high ISO results, video focusing, and the fact that it only has a single SD slot. Nikon & Sony are making steady progress so Canon needs to get the ball rolling. The 7D is great but it will struggle to hold its own with a new D700, D400 or even the vastly cheaper D7000 and new sony model A77, of which most should be available this year. Not much of a problem if the 7D will be replaced this year but if you are waiting more than 12-18 months, that could be a real downer.

Also, the 5D with its weak focusing can be easily trounced by the A77 or upcoming D700. Megapixels don't matter if the picture isn't that sharp.

I expect the replacement for the Nikon D3s to be the greatest camera available given how almost perfect the D3s has been in so many ways. If they can up that even a little with a higher MP sensor, good luck to everyone else.

It took some time but everyone is catching up to Canon on video as well. Unless Canon has some unexpected super advanced tech that no one else can match on that DIGIC5, they really need to be announcing new cameras in 2011.

 

[bornshooter]

I guess 2011 will not be a big year for canon. I think they have begun to slack off a little. Their last even somewhat decent camera, the 60D (which I own) is a little bit of a letdown on focusing, build, high ISO results, video focusing, and the fact that it only has a single SD slot. Nikon & Sony are making steady progress so Canon needs to get the ball rolling. The 7D is great but it will struggle to hold its own with a new D700, D400 or even the vastly cheaper D7000 and new sony model A77, of which most should be available this year. Not much of a problem if the 7D will be replaced this year but if you are waiting more than 12-18 months, that could be a real downer.

Also, the 5D with its weak focusing can be easily trounced by the A77 or upcoming D700. Megapixels don't matter if the picture isn't that sharp.

I expect the replacement for the Nikon D3s to be the greatest camera available given how almost perfect the D3s has been in so many ways. If they can up that even a little with a higher MP sensor, good luck to everyone else.

It took some time but everyone is catching up to Canon on video as well. Unless Canon has some unexpected super advanced tech that no one else can match on that DIGIC5, they really need to be announcing new cameras in 2011.

relax i think canon is watching how the markets playing out then there gonna release some beasts after nikon have released theres don't be to harsh on them yet my friend

 

[dstppy]

How could you forget to mention the 7D Mark2 in your summary?!?!?!

Because there are no real rumors about a 7D2

Exactly. What is the 7D missing? Flip screen? No sense holding your breath on this one. Until Digic V materializes, the 7D seems fine where it is.

 

[dswatson83]

Exactly. What is the 7D missing? Flip screen? No sense holding your breath on this one. Until Digic V materializes, the 7D seems fine where it is.

I agree with you...but the 7D is overpriced. It really is not much better than the Nikon D7000 and even falls short in some respects and should be around $1200-1400 for the body tops. Then Canon could afford to keep this camera relevant much longer. The fact that it is so much more expensive to the Nikon D7000 and will be close in price to the Sony A77 or future Nikon D400 or D700 will hurt it more than anything. The camera itself is still solid and though i'd like to see dual memory card slots and better video focusing, most people can live without those features.

 

[bycostello]

nothing about a 4/3rds camera.... i'd much prefer to buy canon cos of the compatability with flash etc...

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

nothing about a 4/3rds camera.... i'd much prefer to buy canon cos of the compatability with flash etc...

Canon is likely coming out with a small sensor camera, we have seen a patent along those lines, and the Nikon small format camera has already been leaked. They absolutely will NOT make a 4/3 camera.

 

[EYEONE]

How could you forget to mention the 7D Mark2 in your summary?!?!?!

Because there are no real rumors about a 7D2

Exactly. What is the 7D missing? Flip screen? No sense holding your breath on this one. Until Digic V materializes, the 7D seems fine where it is.

And when the Sony A77 debuts with 24MP on APS-C, for a price well under the 7D?

You say "24mp" like it's a good thing.

 

[traveller]

There seem to be a lot of conflicting rumours with regard to the resolution of the new 1Ds series’ sensor. I’m sure that there are people here that will be better informed, but my guess would be that any new full frame camera’s sensor would be based on an existing wafer.

Which pixel pitch will they use?

[Based on the table by Keith Cooper:
http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/cameras/Canon_1DS_MkIV.html]


APS-C Camera Year 35mm FF Camera Year
~3MP D30 2000 - 2002 ~11MP 1Ds 2002 - 2004
~6MP D60/10D 2002 - 2004 ~16MP 1Ds mk2 2004 - 2007
~8MP 20/30D 2004 - 2007 ~21MP 1Ds mk3 2007 - present
~10MP 40D 2007 - 2008 ~26MP ? ?
~12MP 450D/1100D 2008 - present ~31MP ? ?
~15MP 50D 2008 ~39MP ? ?
~18MP 7D/60D/550D/600D 2009 - present ~46MP ? ?
~21MP ? ? ~54MP ? ?

(How the 12.7MP 5D fits into this, I’m not sure…)

The pattern for the first three generations seems to have been that when the APS-C sensor was superseded, the pixel pitch equivalent full frame sensor appeared. This has now broken down: there was no 26MP / 31MP full-frame camera. My question is, if Canon wanted to produce a 1Ds MkIV with one of these resolutions, why wouldn’t they have done so in quarter 3 2010, when everyone expected them to? A quick calculation of what Digic 4 is capable of:

5D MkII - 21MP x 3.9fps = 81.9
31MP x 5fps = 155

Dual Digic 4s should have had enough processing power for a 31MP 1Ds MkIV at 5fps. So why wait a year? A 1Ds MkIV with this sensor, the 1D MkIV’s AF system and HD Video would surely have been enough of an upgrade for anyone contemplating it. Did Canon thought that the economy was too weak to sell enough of them? Were they worried that Nikon’s new D4 would outshine it this year?

There’s a suggestion at Northlight that a 40+MP 1Ds MkIV prototype was tested, but has been rejected because of poorer than hoped for high ISO performance. Referring back to the table shows that a FF equivalent to the 18MP APS-C sensor would have ~46MP. This raises the question of what Canon were looking for in this regard in a ‘studio’ camera compared to the 7D et al. Is read noise higher from a full frame sensor?

Maybe Canon is looking to produce a single 1D series body that merges the product lines, but as Keith Cooper states: which price point do they market it at, the 1D’s or the 1Ds’? Perhaps Canon fear that the Pentax 645D makes the 1Ds’ traditional price point untenable? Assuming that this is not the case, what impact will the 5D MkIII have upon all of this? Will Canon carry on with putting the same sensor in it as in the 1Ds, or will they revert to a lower resolution sensor as in the original 5D? If they do the former, expect the 5D MkIII to look very much like the 5D MkII in terms of its other specifications to maintain the differential between the two lines. If they put a different sensor in the 5D MkIII, then it would help them to beef up the other aspects of its performance to head off the expected D800.

Will we see a 1Ds MkIV based on the 50D pixel pitch at ~39MP and a 5D MkIII based on the 40D (1D MkIV?)/ 450D pixel pitch at ~26 - 31MP?

Apologies for the length, I’ve been saving it up for a while -haven’t posted in ages!

 

[dstppy]

How could you forget to mention the 7D Mark2 in your summary?!?!?!

Because there are no real rumors about a 7D2

Exactly. What is the 7D missing? Flip screen? No sense holding your breath on this one. Until Digic V materializes, the 7D seems fine where it is.

And when the Sony A77 debuts with 24MP on APS-C, for a price well under the 7D?

Obviously everyone sells their EF/EF-S lenses/bodies and goes out and learns a new system ;D

Sony, seriously? Don't they make radios or something?

 

[Edwin Herdman]

Sony is "just" the biggest maker of sensors for digital cameras. I think Canon's next biggest, and the size of the players falls off dramatically from there.

They make good headphones too (a bit expensive even by top of the line SLR standards though). Best of all you don't need to input your CC info to plug them into your stereo system, either.

The rumor going around is that the A77 will shoot 12FPS - we'll see...

 

[kubelik]

Exactly. What is the 7D missing? Flip screen? No sense holding your breath on this one. Until Digic V materializes, the 7D seems fine where it is.

I agree with you...but the 7D is overpriced. It really is not much better than the Nikon D7000 and even falls short in some respects and should be around $1200-1400 for the body tops. Then Canon could afford to keep this camera relevant much longer. The fact that it is so much more expensive to the Nikon D7000 and will be close in price to the Sony A77 or future Nikon D400 or D700 will hurt it more than anything. The camera itself is still solid and though i'd like to see dual memory card slots and better video focusing, most people can live without those features.

since when did real cameras on the market need to have their pricing dictated by rumored equipment?

 

[neuroanatomist]

The rumor going around is that the A77 will shoot 12FPS - we'll see...

I heard 20 fps, and a built-in coffee maker. But that may not have been the most reliable of rumors...

 

[dswatson83]

since when did real cameras on the market need to have their pricing dictated by rumored equipment?

Well, rumored because it isn't out yet but Sony has been very public with info including spec lists and a launch date for the end of this month so its not quite rumor. I'm just saying that the 7D is a great camera and will still be a great buy if Canon prices it right. There isn't a ton to upgrade on it until the Digic V is out so I understand that canon has probably delayed a new model till 2012. It has only come down about $200 I think in the several years it has been out so I'm sure Canon has room. If they don't lower the price, it just looks like there may be some other superior camera options from the competition for around the same price for about a year.

 

[-zero-]

There isn't a ton to upgrade on it until the Digic V is out so I understand that canon has probably delayed a new model till 2012. It has only come down about $200 I think in the several years it has been out so I'm sure Canon has room. If they don't lower the price, it just looks like there may be some other superior camera options from the competition for around the same price for about a year.

First, we still don't know if the 7D is on a 2 or 3 year cycle so I wouldn't talk about any delays just yet
second, the 7D is still the top aps-c camera out there and I think is priced correctly, the price will go down eventually but I think it's going to be when the 7D mkII comes out and not when nikon or sony release new cameras (I could be wrong though)

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

The rumor going around is that the A77 will shoot 12FPS - we'll see...

I heard 20 fps, and a built-in coffee maker. But that may not have been the most reliable of rumors...

This is a Canadian web site, so that would be a kettle - eh

 

[Canon 14-24]

Strategically what they probably will do?

Probably release for a 5d3 next year Q1 2012. Why because then they can release their new line up that will be in line with a new Adobe CS6 suite to just open a raw file! So on top of a potential new $3k-ish camera body you gotta now buy a new 300-600 photoshop to open the raws!

 

[UncleFester]

The rumor going around is that the A77 will shoot 12FPS - we'll see...

That's a lot of fps, and I often wonder what practical application even 10 fps have. Besides the obvious like a good autosports accident, boxing and UFC have got to be the best sports where a 10-12 frame shines.

 

[pedro]

Strategically what they probably will do?

Probably release for a 5d3 next year Q1 2012. Why because then they can release their new line up that will be in line with a new Adobe CS6 suite to just open a raw file! So on top of a potential new $3k-ish camera body you gotta now buy a new 300-600 photoshop to open the raws!

you don't even need a new photoshop. DPP is way enough. if not, there is lightroom. add these bucks to your glass budget...regards.