Another Nikon full-frame

[sagittariansrock]

... While it is true that the Df didn't become mainstream (and I personally dislike the look and the concept), many people bought and loved it.

no. at least not anywhere in Europe. Hardly anybody bought it. Good sensor. Totally botched pseudo-retro user-interface. Consumer-class D600 chassis, instead of using the D800 as sensor-holder for that D4 sensor, sharing everything else with the D800 ... UI, controls, battery, battery grip.

No need to preach to the choir ;D- I despise the loss of functionality over form in the first place, and don't think much of the Df's form in the second.

Nevertheless, Europe doesn't comprise all of Nikon's market. I am sure some people are buying it. It ranks in the 7K's on Amazon, and there are cameras behind it. It wasn't expected to be a big seller, mind you, as Nikon seems to have informed dealers before release. But it has sold more than expected.

 

[distant.star]

i have the feeling you buy one and when you have read through the manual they announce a new camera. :

So, the obvious solution is to not read the manual!

 

[sanj]

These threads crack me up. I am sure Nikon will bring out something a lot of people will love. While it is true that the Df didn't become mainstream (and I personally dislike the look and the concept), many people bought and loved it.
It is good for both camps that the companies are competing. Why bash something that hasn't even come out yet? I do feel that the Nikon lineup has a gap where a versatile FF dSLR equivalent to the 5DIII can sit, the same way Canon users can use a high megapixel, high DR one.

Agree.

 

[Admin US West]

It does look like Nikon is very convinced that bring full frame cameras out in large numbers will mean more sales.

FF sensors no longer cost a huge premium to manufacture, and by increasing the volume, prices drop further.

Nikon is not likely to cannibalize D4S sales, I think they learned that from the D700. the Df certainly was a niche camera and not likely to affect D4s sales.

I wonder if this is a indication of what Canon will be doing. They are obviously aware of each others strategy, so, Canon might come out with a $4500 Camera to place between 5D III and the 1DX. Maybe a 5DX?

 

[Loswr]

...Canon might come out with a $4500 Camera to place between 5D III and the 1DX. Maybe a 5DX?

3D

;D

 

[Keith_Reeder]

I am sure Nikon will bring out something a lot of people will love.

Well they'd better do it quickly, because apparently they're not doing it at the moment:
http://nikonrumors.com/2014/08/09/nikon-cuts-yearly-forecasts-after-reporting-lower-sales-and-income-in-first-quarter.aspx/

As others here point out on a regular basis: the proof of the pudding is in how many cameras the manufacturers sell, and - wonderful as Nikon are, according to some - they don't seem to be particularly good at actually moving product.

 

[Admin US West]

...Canon might come out with a $4500 Camera to place between 5D III and the 1DX. Maybe a 5DX?

3D

;D

Possible, but unlikely. I think they are reserving that number for 20 years from now.

 

[unfocused]

...Canon might come out with a $4500 Camera to place between 5D III and the 1DX. Maybe a 5DX?

It would make more sense to slot a camera between the 6D and 5D. Currently, there is a $1,500 gap between the two. Plenty of room for another model. Release a new model with the current 70D/7D type autofocus and offer it for $2,200.

Human behavior being what it is, the 6D becomes the bargain model that allows dealers to up-sell people to the more "advanced" version. Might even boost sales of the 5D, because "for just a little more, you can have all these added features in a much better built body.'

 

[x-vision]

Well they'd better do it quickly, because apparently they're not doing it at the moment ...

Canon has already cut their sales forecast for this year ... twice.

So, it's not like Nikon is struggling, while Canon is riding a wave of success.
This is just the state of the DSLR market is right now.
Apparently, a saturation point has been reached and the market is stale/shrinking.

As for the rumored Nikon FF camera: it makes a lot of sense, actually.
When the D800 was released, many felt that it was not a real D700 successor - and this sentiment has not
changed with the D810 announcement.

If Nikon is smart, the rumored camera will be the D710: a D810 with a 24mp sensor and a faster frame rate.
That would be the true D700 successor and many will be buying that rather than the D810.

Same for Canon, btw.
A 5DIV with 40MP and 4-5fps frame rate will be disappointment for many 5DIII owners, who would rather see
only a modest increase in resolution - but more tangible improvements in ISO, DR, and frame rate.

Overall, one size doesn't fit all in this segment.
Some would rather have a high resolution and are OK with a slower frame rate, while others would rather have
it the other way round.

Back to the quarterly/yearly projections:
Despite lagging sales for the last two quarters (vs 2013), Canon was optimistic for the overall yearly outlook.
That's the best indication that they will be announcing a new DSLR at Photokina, which will be contributing to
the bottom line.

The question is, will that be the 7DII or a high-resolution 5DIV?

Considering how Canon and Nikon have model/feature parity at every price level, basically,
I'd say that the latest Nikon rumors just increase the probability of a 5DIV vs a 7DII at Photokina.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Well they'd better do it quickly, because apparently they're not doing it at the moment ...

Canon already cut their sales forecast for this year ... twice.

So, it's not like Nikon is struggling, while Canon is riding a wave of success.
This is just the state of the DSLR market is right now.
Apparently, a saturation point has been reached and the market is stale/shrinking.

Where do you get your information about this? Care to post some actual data?

Here are some recent reports that are actual data:


"Nikon misses financial forecast, stock down at 3 years low, company restructuring announced"

Read more on NikonRumors.com: http://nikonrumors.com/2014/05/17/nikon-misses-financial-forecast-stock-down-at-3-years-low-company-restructuring-announced.aspx/#ixzz3A1Sb8ZL2

"UPDATE 1-Canon nudges up 2014 profit forecast as office equipment sales grow; Q1 profit up 51 pct"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/24/canon-results-idUSL3N0NG29H20140424?type=companyNews

 

[x-vision]

Aah. I should have been more clear. Camera sales were down, not printer sales 8).

From the Reuters' link:

Camera sales, however, fell by 22 percent year-on-year in the quarter ...

And straight from Canon (see page 12):
http://www.canon.com/ir/conference/pdf/conf2014q2e.pdf

• Interchangeable Lens Digital Cameras: -19%
  
• Compact Digital Cameras: -38%

Also see this commentary from Thom Hogan. It's a good read:
http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/canon-posts-quarterly-resul.html

 

[Loswr]

Well they'd better do it quickly, because apparently they're not doing it at the moment ...

Canon has already cut their sales forecast for this year ... twice.

So, it's not like Nikon is struggling, while Canon is riding a wave of success.

True...but Nikon is cutting deeper and predicting higher losses than Canon, meaning they expect to fall even further behind the leader in market share.

 

[x-vision]

The point is, despite a 19% drop in DSLR sales (on a yearly basis), Canon remains positive about the yearly outlook.

As I said, that's the real indication that there will be a new, high-value DSLR announced at Photokina.
Otherwise, how do you remain positive with a 19% drop in sales.

The question is, which will be a better seller: a 7DII or a high-resolution 5DIV?
Or maybe both ??

 

[Loswr]

The point is, despite a 19% drop in DSLR sales (on a yearly basis), Canon remains positive about the yearly outlook.

As I said, that's the real indication that there will be a new, high-value DSLR announced at Photokina.
Otherwise, how do you remain positive with a 19% drop in sales.

Christmas magic? Blind foolishness?

A new expensive dSLR won't add much to the coffers compared to the slump in entry-level sales. Just sayin'.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Aah. I should have been more clear. Camera sales were down, not printer sales 8).

From the Reuters' link:

Camera sales, however, fell by 22 percent year-on-year in the quarter ...

And straight from Canon (see page 12):
http://www.canon.com/ir/conference/pdf/conf2014q2e.pdf

• Interchangeable Lens Digital Cameras: -19%
  
• Compact Digital Cameras: -38%

Also see this commentary from Thom Hogan. It's a good read:
http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/canon-posts-quarterly-resul.html

While its true that Camera sales are down, as Canon noted, high end camera sales are climbing. That hasn't been overlooked by Nikon, if they are indeed planning another Full Frame Body.

The issue is that Canon has a diverse product range to support the Company while Nikon has less to rely on, they do sell a host of optical products and industrial products, but, as a company, their stock is approaching junk value. A big factor is Canon's ability to stick to what makes a profit, and resist tossing out long shots that only eat up profits. They are very conservative, and make a profit where others are failing. While this gives them the ability to launch a expensive new product, they are very careful that a new product will meet sales and profit goals. They were able to sell 5D MK III's for $500 more than a D800, but they likely cost the same to produce, in fact, I'd bet that it costs less to make a 5D MK III.

Canon's conservative policy is a 2 edged sword. Gearheads like me want new and improved products, but we also want a healthy company to back them and support them. Right now, I'm sticking with my 5D MK III because of the completes system as well as all the third party accessories that support it. I'd suspect that third party manufacturers are balking at churning out products to support several low production camera bodies.

 

[x-vision]

Christmas magic? Blind foolishness?

Heh. That's certainly a possibility.
But if they miss, they will be taking a big beating from investors.

I think the suits know better - and they know something that we don't 8).

If I have to guess what will make a bigger splash at Photokina - and a bigger impact
on the bottom line - that would be a 40mp 5DIV, not a 7DII.
Just sayin'.

 

[Loswr]

Christmas magic? Blind foolishness?

Heh. That's certainly a possibility.
But if they miss, they will be taking a big beating from investors.

I think the suits know better - and they know something that we don't 8).

If I have to guess what will make a bigger splash at Photokina - and a bigger impact
on the bottom line - that would be a 40mp 5DIV, not a 7DII.
Just sayin'.

Makes sense. Since I don't own Canon stock, and I'm quite happy with my 1D X, it's good for me either way.

 

[sagittariansrock]

Christmas magic? Blind foolishness?

Heh. That's certainly a possibility.
But if they miss, they will be taking a big beating from investors.

I think the suits know better - and they know something that we don't 8).

If I have to guess what will make a bigger splash at Photokina - and a bigger impact
on the bottom line - that would be a 40mp 5DIV, not a 7DII.
Just sayin'.

A high resolution FF camera definitely has its place in the Canon camera lineup, but so does an APS-C camera with more bells and whistles (not that I particularly desire either personally).

@Mt Spokane: Conservative strategy makes more sense during sales slumps, and I believe it is something Canon is pursuing only temporarily. In general, a big company cannot survive without innovation.
I wouldn't call a company that dumps its FD system to launch an entirely new EOS system, or the optical flash system to launch an RT system, conservative. If anything, Canon is one of the most innovative and progressive companies in the industry. So I think Canon will listen to the market and respond thinking to what photographers will be wanting tomorrow, not just responding to what they want today.

 

[x-vision]

While its true that Camera sales are down, as Canon noted, high end camera sales are climbing. That hasn't been overlooked by Nikon, if they are indeed planning another Full Frame Body.

Yes ... but that's not because Nikon is in trouble.
That's the point of contention here.

Both the 5DIII and D800 have proven very successful and have shown that there is a place for both types of cameras at the high end.

So, it's not surprising that Nikon will likely be announcing a 5DIII-type of camera at Photokina.
Why not monetize on the need for such a camera in their lineup?

As for Canon: what if they announces a 40mp 5DIV at Photokina?
Will that be an act of desperation? A me-too response to the D810?

Certainly not. Just good business for Canon - and same for Nikon.

Why try to spin it as if either one is doing it because they are in trouble ??

 

[x-vision]

A high resolution FF camera definitely has its place in the Canon camera lineup, but so does an APS-C camera with more bells and whistles (not that I particularly desire either personally).

Agree. That's why it hard to guess what the Photokina announcement will be.
Either one is a possibility and it all depends on how Canon sees it.