Canon lays out their corporate strategy

[Canon Rumors Guy]

Canon has released their corporate strategy for the next few years. With the challenges over the last few years, Canon seems to have itself in a really good place and ready to grow again. Last year, the Imaging Group achieved sales and profit growth and a significant improvement in profitability. As for cameras, our mirrorless

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[entoman]

"This year, we expect the global market for interchangeable lens cameras to be around 5.5 to 6 million units and more than 70 of this to be mirrorless cameras."

So they're predicting 30% of ILC sales this year to be DSLRs. That's a big drop, but still higher than I would expect. I find it surprising that people are still buying DSLRs in that sort of quantity, given that Canon is pushing the RF system so heavily.

 

[neuroanatomist]

So they're predicting 30% of ILC sales this year to be DSLRs. That's a big drop, but still higher than I would expect. I find it surprising that people are still buying DSLRs in that sort of quantity, given that Canon is pushing the RF system so heavily.

No drop, Canon predicts a flat DSLR market since ~30% of ILCs shipped in 2022 were DSLRs (down from ~40% in 2021).

They sell because entry level DSLR kits are still cheaper than entry level MILC kits.

 

[dolina]

"This year, we expect the global market for interchangeable lens cameras to be around 5.5 to 6 million units and more than 70 of this to be mirrorless cameras."

I got the global market of <6 million ILC numbers correct. lol

I woud not be surprised that MILC + DSLR + P&S = <7 million global market

Last Canon financial report had them at approximately 48% of that global market. Sony-branded cameras are at a distant 2nd but any digital camera brand with a Sony MF, FF or APS-C image sensor is at parity with Canon's 48%.

So they're predicting 30% of ILC sales this year to be DSLRs. That's a big drop, but still higher than I would expect. I find it surprising that people are still buying DSLRs in that sort of quantity, given that Canon is pushing the RF system so heavily.

At 30% that would be less than 900 thousand Canon DSLR bodies globally for 2023.

Buyers may prefer DSLR bodies because of price or do not want any major changes to the very last moment.

Like say you have a stockpile of CompactFlash (CF) cards and memory card readers. You only need CFast cards if you want faster than 167MB/s writes for higher bitrate 4K/8K resolution video & higher continuous FPS at a higher MP stills.

The very last bodies that uses them are the 5D Mark IV & 1D X Mark II that both came out in 2016.

As early as 2018 some countries have already stopped ordering EF & F system out of concerns of having non-moving inventory. Whatever they have in inventory by 2018 is the last orders they made before the announced transition.

On BHPhoto Nikon & Pentax do not offer DSLRs that uses CF card slots anymore. They also have these many DSLR bodies per brand

- 8 Canon
- 7 Nikon
- 6 Pentax

Canon stated in the past that so long as there are economic orders for EF bodies/lens/accessories they will continue to produce them.

 

[John Wilde]

The graphic shows them continuing to expand the RF lens lineup at the same rate, so we will probably see around seven new RF lenses this year.

 

[neuroanatomist]

I got the global market of <6 million ILC numbers correct. lol

At 30% that would be less than 900 thousand Canon DSLR bodies globally for 2023.

You got simple math wrong. lol

I could lament on the sad state of millennials’ mathematical abilities. You might want to bust out a calculator and try multiplying 6 million by 0.3.

 

[entoman]

They may prefer DSLR bodies because of price or do not want any major changes to the very last moment.

Like say you have a stockpile of CompactFlash (CF) cards and memory card readers. You only need CFast cards if you want faster than 167MB/s writes for higher bitrate 4K/8K resolution video & higher continuous FPS at a higher MP.

The very last bodies that uses them are the 5D Mark IV & 1D X Mark II that both came out in 2016.

I absolutely understand why some people still favour the optical viewfinders of DSLRs, but I don't really get the logic of staying with DSLRs on the basis of having a few CF cards. Recent DSLRs such as my 5DMkiv had CF and SD - and the latter are crazy-cheap.

I think the percentage of people who already have a DSLR, and choose to get another DSLR as an upgrade is pretty low. Upgraders want better specifications all round, and that means getting a MILC - and Canon have made that transition very easy due to the ability to use EF lenses on RF cameras, without loss of AF performance.

The vast majority of DSLR purchasers these days are probably novices looking for an affordable way into photography, and such folk are typically heavily influenced by advertising and influencers, who are almost exclusively promoting MILCS. So it surprises me that peer pressure from MILC users, and heavy promotion of MILCs by Canon, Nikon and Sony, hasn't led to a more rapid and severe collapse in demand for DSLRs.

 

[dolina]

The graphic shows them continuing to expand the RF lens lineup at the same rate, so we will probably see around seven new RF lenses this year.

Many here complained about Canon's small RF lens lineup because of how few options there and how expensive it is. From 2020-2022 they've maintained a lens release clip of 7-8 lens/year. They have 32(?) RF lens so far & Sony has 72(?). As early as 2028 it is possible they will have a lineup at parity with those of Sony.

Going forward I expect consumer RF lenses to make up more of of Canon's releases. They prioritized the L lenses as the ILC market has become more non-consumer.

 

[entoman]

Going forward I expect consumer RF lenses to make up more of of Canon's releases. They prioritized the L lenses as the ILC market has become more non-consumer.

There is still a lot of scope and demand for unfulfilled high-end L glass e.g. RF 300mm F2.8 and RF 200-500mm lenses with built in extenders. Also plenty of space, and probably enough demand, to warrant more tilt-shift and macro lenses. But yes there are also plenty of gaps in the consumer RF range - I'd expect these to be plugged by "unusual" lenses - Canon has been very adept at producing "oddities" that turn out to be very popular, such as the 600/11 and 800/11.

 

[dolina]

I absolutely understand why some people still favour the optical viewfinders of DSLRs, but I don't really get the logic of staying with DSLRs on the basis of having a few CF cards. Recent DSLRs such as my 5DMkiv had CF and SD - and the latter are crazy-cheap. Also people tend to replace slower cards with faster cards over a period of time.

I think the percentage of people who already have a DSLR, and choose to get another DSLR as an upgrade is pretty low. Upgraders want better specifications all round, and that means getting a MILC.

The vast majority of DSLR purchasers these days are probably novices looking for an affordable way into photography, and such folk are typically heavily influenced by advertising and influencers, who are almost exclusively promoting MILCS. So it surprises me that peer pressure from MILC users, and heavy promotion of MILCs by Canon, Nikon and Sony, hasn't led to a more rapid and severe collapse in demand for DSLRs.

CR is mostly an enthusiast photo forum that caters to perennial upgraders. We will never represent the mainstream or professional who do not have user account here.

I presented some economic reasons why those users do not upgrade. They do not treat them like toys but like toasters or refrigerators. Use until it cannot be economically repaired. Replace with whatever is the equivalent or bargain.

Digital camera market has dropped from a peak of nearly 121.5 million in 2010 to a little over 8 million last year. We are going back to year 1999 levels.

Last digital camera body/lens/accessory I bought was in 2015. I was offered a sweet deal for a R5 but I paused and reflected why I'd buy one when the last time I picked up a camera was in 2018. Naturally this does not cover people here but for many non-CR users that's how they make the decision to buy.

That 2015 body functions perfectly. I do not see a reason to upgrade if you're just doing people photography and the ocassional bird photo that will only get stolen by eNviroNMentalist and scope-bound bIrdWatChErs.

Put another way there are 22,030 user accounts on CR. I'd bet good money many of them are inactive because they've died or like me... have not bought any RF bodies yet.

 

[Czardoom]

Pretty simple why people still buy DSLRs. The two best selling DSLRs at Amazon (USA) are:
EOS Rebel T7 w/ kit lens $399
EOS Rebel T100 w/ kit lens $399.

 

[entoman]

I was offered a sweet deal for a R5 but I paused and reflected why I'd buy one when the last time I picked up a camera was in 2018.

You haven't taken a photograph since 2018, yet you are a regular correspondent on a site that caters for photographers ?????

How very very odd.

 

[dolina]

There is still a lot of scope and demand for unfulfilled high-end L glass e.g. RF 300mm F2.8 and RF 200-500mm lenses with built in extenders. Also plenty of space, and probably enough demand, to warrant more tilt-shift and macro lenses. But yes there are also plenty of gaps in the consumer RF range - I'd expect these to be plugged by "unusual" lenses - Canon has been very adept at producing "oddities" that turn out to be very popular, such as the 600/11 and 800/11.

Hence my saying "consumer RF lenses to make up more of of Canon's releases" and not "all". ;-)

IIRC from 2018-2022 RF lenses was >70% RF L & <30% RF non-L.

5 years in we are at the midpoint.

Going forward I could see half and half RF L & non-L. Then the tail-end nearing year 2028 >70% RF non-L & <30% RF L.

RF tiltshift will probably start appearing around year 2028.

The releases will be predicated on demand and how quickly inventory can move. Why start producing any lens with little demand or very thin margins.

 

[dolina]

You haven't taken a photograph since 2018, yet you are a regular correspondent on a site that caters for photographers ?????

How very very odd.

Shop talk is fun. ;-)

If you look at my post history I was absent for a few years.

There are members here who are very rude for no other purpose of being rude. Does not stop them from participating.

 

[entoman]

Hence my saying "consumer RF lenses to make up more of of Canon's releases" and not "all". ;-)

Er, I was agreeing with you on the subject of more consumer RF lenses. I just said there would also be more RF lenses. Probably about 50/50, on that we agree, I think.

Why start producing any lens with little demand or very thin margins.

Forward-thinking companies don't only follow demand, they also *create* demand.

Hence 8K was a major selling point for the R5, and the twin fish-eye was designed to create a new genre of photography.

 

[entoman]

There are members here who are very rude for no other purpose of being rude. Does not stop them from participating.

I've been here since 2015, and in that time I've only come across a couple of people who have been rude to other contributors, usually as an unnecessary over-reaction to someone making a silly or ignorant comment. But I agree that rudeness has no place here, and I'm the first to condemn it when it does occur.

 

[neuroanatomist]

There are members here who are very rude for no other purpose of being rude. Does not stop them from participating.

There are members here who make sexist comments. I feel no guilt or remorse in being rude to such people.

 

[dolina]

Er, I was agreeing with you on the subject of more consumer RF lenses. I just said there would also be more RF lenses. Probably about 50/50, on that we agree, I think.

Great, thanks with agreeing.

Forward-thinking companies don't only follow demand, they also *create* demand.

Hence 8K was a major selling point for the R5, and the twin fish-eye was designed to create a new genre of photography.

Ideally but based on the RF lens releases so far they're catering to actual demand.

Like, no big surprise that f/2.8 & f/4.0 ultra wide, standard and tele photo zooms came out within the 1st 5 years of RF lens while there are zero tilt shifts.

No big surprise that 400/2.8 & 600/4.0 came out before 800/5.6 & 1200/8.0.

 

[dolina]

I've been here since 2015, and in that time I've only come across a couple of people who have been rude to other contributors, usually as an unnecessary over-reaction to someone making a silly or ignorant comment. But I agree that rudeness has no place here, and I'm the first to condemn it when it does occur.

I think I registered here as far back as 2011 after years just reading.

I best you by just putting them on ignore.

Although I'd prefer if there was an option to block so you don't get the warning that "ignored user replied". It just reminds you that someone rude is still there.

 

[dolina]

Pretty simple why people still buy DSLRs. The two best selling DSLRs at Amazon (USA) are:
EOS Rebel T7 w/ kit lens $399
EOS Rebel T100 w/ kit lens $399.

That's mainstream America. They are not chasing excellence but a toaster.

So long as there is demand Canon will produce it. Those buying that Rebel probably never heard of CR much less have a user account here.

On BHPhoto I've observed that the "Best Seller" changes when you click on it and reselect it again.

Before reselecting "Best Seller"

After resellecting "Best Seller"