High Megapixel Camera Coming in 2015 [CR3]

[Loswr]

It almost needs to be both semi-high fps (at the very least in cropped modes (sRAW or mRAW speed won't do it since those kill all the reach for sports and wildlife)) and high DR otherwise if it is very slow then it's not longer quite as great for sports and wildlife too...

Although I'm sure many of us consumers would want that, I doubt Canon will see it as a need. I say 4 fps max, no crop mode.

 

[ewg963]

You have made a good point about the 5DIII birthday. I was surprised when Canon came up with the 7D2 without a significant sensor jump. However with Lexar making their 2000X SD cards UH3, perhaps in the next year (or 2), Canon may feel that it is time to have a high MP sensor with dual processors to give a 6FPS rate.

Highly doubt you'll see much more than 4 FPS from any cameras wielding the next gen of high MP sensors in the near future. The Sony rumor is a 46 MP sensor is coming, and their folks aren't expecting a high frame rate at first either.

I think the cadence would be:

2015 -- High MP FF rig with modest frame rate, say 4 FPS
2016 -- Same sensor with a souped up processor / buffer / card throughput and (what) 6-8 fps?

The missing bit for me is what Canon will do with another FF rig due for an upgrade -- the 1DX. It was supposed to be the merging of the studio 1Ds line and the sports/wildlife 1D4 line, and it was decent at that task. I say decent in that it's a stellar camera, but each camp had one hand behind it's back -- studio/landscape wanted more resolution and sports wanted APS-H reach.

But now, a new 50 MP FF rig cannot possibly push out anything near the 12-14 fps the 1DX can now (not at full res at least). So Canon is stuck with a difficult choice here:

• Split the 1DX back into its two camps and offer two new 1D bodies: one that is high res / low FPS for studio or landscape work and another with a different lower-res sensor that maintains a high burst for sports/wildlife
• Only offer a studio/landscape high MP body and tell sports/wildlife guys to keep using their 1DX's (or possibly their 7D2's) until throughput improves down the road
• Pull a 'sort-of-Nikon' and offer one body that is full res for studio/landscape but at the flick of a switch is a some-sort-of-crop high FPS beast. APS-H fanboys can stop spooning with their 1D4's at night and move on with their lives.

All of those decisions have tradeoffs. Not sure which is best.

- A

+1 Great points ahsanford!!! I think spitting the 1 DX into two camps is the way to go.... A 6-8 fps in a 50 mp body would be outstanding but I'll settle for 4 fps.

 

[Loswr]

But now, a new 50 MP FF rig cannot possibly push out anything near the 12-14 fps the 1DX can now (not at full res at least). So Canon is stuck with a difficult choice here:

• Split the 1DX back into its two camps and offer two new 1D bodies: one that is high res / low FPS for studio or landscape work and another with a different lower-res sensor that maintains a high burst for sports/wildlife
• Only offer a studio/landscape high MP body and tell sports/wildlife guys to keep using their 1DX's (or possibly their 7D2's) until throughput improves down the road
• Pull a 'sort-of-Nikon' and offer one body that is full res for studio/landscape but at the flick of a switch is a some-sort-of-crop high FPS beast. APS-H fanboys can stop spooning with their 1D4's at night and move on with their lives.

All of those decisions have tradeoffs. Not sure which is best.

You missed an option...don't release a high MP 1-series body. The rumor here (CR3, so CRguy believes it's pretty accurate) indicates a non-1-series body for this release. It seems likely to me that Canon will give a slight resolution bump to the 1D X successor (24 MP, perhaps) and keep the 12 fps.

They unified the 1D and 1Ds lines for a reason. While no doubt there are some who bought both, having a 1-series speed demon and a 5Ds/4D/whatever high MP body for studio/landscape may be a more viable option from a sales/marketing perspective. It's one I'd personally consider (but then, I'd also consider a 1D X + 1D Xs combo ).

 

[ahsanford]

You missed an option...don't release a high MP 1-series body. The rumor here (CR3, so CRguy believes it's pretty accurate) indicates a non-1-series body for this release. It seems likely to me that Canon will give a slight resolution bump to the 1D X successor (24 MP, perhaps) and keep the 12 fps.

They unified the 1D and 1Ds lines for a reason. While no doubt there are some who bought both, having a 1-series speed demon and a 5Ds/4D/whatever high MP body for studio/landscape may be a more viable option from a sales/marketing perspective. It's one I'd personally consider (but then, I'd also consider a 1D X + 1D Xs combo ).

Ah, but Neuro, doesn't having a super detail rig for studio (even if it's called 5D4 or 2D or whatever) and a 1DX Mark II beast for high fps outdoor work sort of split the goal of the unified 1DX anyway?

Studio 1D shooters will presumably leave that trimline for the new high MP rig and outdoor/sports/wildlife guys with 1DX Mk II will wonder why the lines were fused in the first place! Their precious APS-H will be dead and gone and they'll stuck with relatively reach-limited FF rig that mandates slightly longer supertele purchases.

These are just rough thoughts off the top of my head, but it would appear that with finite throughput possible, you kind of have to have two lines of top end cameras: one for detail and one for speed. Why the hell did they fuse those lines in the first place when that speed/detail relationship will always be true?

As for considering what the new high MP rig is, yes, if the rumor is true, it won't be gripped. See my *other* sprawling post (page 12) and let me know which bucket you expect this new camera to be. I'm curious!

- A

 

[crashpc]

They desperately need to go up with megapixels, as even the cheapest model is 18Mpx. I hope they´ll go 24-32Mpx for APS-C and 40+Mpx for 5D class FF body.

 

[ahsanford]

They desperately need to go up with megapixels, as even the cheapest model is 18Mpx. I hope they´ll go 24-32Mpx for APS-C and 40+Mpx for 5D class FF body.

That ship has sailed on APS-C. The 7D2 is the last flagship APS-C rig you'll see for quite some time, so 20 MP is all we get.

Besides the obvious "Only +2 MP over the 7D?" first blush response some folks had when the 7D2 spec list dropped, there is the longer term 'king of the Canon APS-C spec sheet' problem. Though Canon's crop world will likely proliferate one of the two 20 MP APS-C sensors to the lower trimlines over the next 1-2 years, it might get weird when a T8i or 90D comes out with a 24 or 30 MP sensor and the 7D2 is still sitting at 20 MP.

- A

 

[CaptureWhatYouSee]

My 1 cent...

I would like a higher MP FF body that is not too large. So, I would like to see this in a 6D body. But, I doubt that they would introduce a new sensor in the 6D. 5D's are pretty bulky and 1D's are huge.

I may be forced to go with a Sony until the high MP 6D comes around. My current body is 4 years old and in need of an upgrade.

 

[PerfectSavage]

If anyone thinks Canon wasn't going to one-up Nikon, Sony et al...they haven't been paying attention. Market leaders like Canon don't jump at the first trendy innovation brought to the market (i.e. 4K on your wristwatch cam), market leaders got there by having proven, reliable, differentiated technology, and support for it and that takes time. Sony's A7s is an EXTRAORDINARY camera - no doubt. But those Canon pros that sold all their Canon gear to move to Sony on a whim this year will be regretting it - at least financially - when Canon introduces this or similar camera in early 2015. Sony's camera division makes money, the rest of Sony does not. The bankruptcy dangers for Sony are very real and have been for a few years....you don't read anything about Canon having financial issues though. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sony sell off it's photo unit entirely to raise cash if they can't make the rest of their businesses profitable soon.

 

[lintoni]

They desperately need to go up with megapixels, as even the cheapest model is 18Mpx. I hope they´ll go 24-32Mpx for APS-C and 40+Mpx for 5D class FF body.

That ship has sailed on APS-C. The 7D2 is the last flagship APS-C rig you'll see for quite some time, so 20 MP is all we get.

Besides the obvious "Only +2 MP over the 7D?" first blush response some folks had when the 7D2 spec list dropped, there is the longer term 'king of the Canon APS-C spec sheet' problem. Though Canon's crop world will likely proliferate one of the two 20 MP APS-C sensors to the lower trimlines over the next 1-2 years, it might get weird when a T8i or 90D comes out with a 24 or 30 MP sensor and the 7D2 is still sitting at 20 MP.

- A

No weirder than the 1D X having 18 MP vs the 5D3's 22.3...

 

[Loswr]

Ah, but Neuro, doesn't having a super detail rig for studio (even if it's called 5D4 or 2D or whatever) and a 1DX Mark II beast for high fps outdoor work sort of split the goal of the unified 1DX anyway?

Who's goal are you talking about? If you mean the consumer goal of having 'one camera to rule them all' or something to that effect, then yes. But Canon's goal is to make more profit...and the consumers' goals only matter insofar as they affect buying decisions.

Say they looked at their sales data and found few 1DIV owners with a second body also owned a 1DsIII, but many also owned a 5DII. That would suggest a high MP non-1 body would be a more profitable path.

 

[Eldar]

Canon never do giant leaps. They do things in a proper order. The sensible thing to do is to release a high resolution camera for studio and landscape work, where the number of changed components can be controlled. A 5DIV, with no AF gamble, no memory card gamble, no new computing platform, no new internal bus architecture etc. makes perfect sense. Personally I would prefer a 1DsIV or 1DX-II (you choose), but I suspect I will have to wait. But with my newborn addiction to manual focus Zeiss lenses, that may be what I should be waiting for ...

 

[lintoni]

Canon never do giant leaps. They do things in a proper order. The sensible thing to do is to release a high resolution camera for studio and landscape work, where the number of changed components can be controlled. A 5DIV, with no AF gamble, no memory card gamble, no new computing platform, no new internal bus architecture etc. makes perfect sense. Personally I would prefer a 1DsIV or 1DX-II (you choose), but I suspect I will have to wait. But with my newborn addiction to manual focus Zeiss lenses, that may be what I should be waiting for ...

That's an expensive habit you've got there. Is there a twelve step plan available?

 

[ahsanford]

Ah, but Neuro, doesn't having a super detail rig for studio (even if it's called 5D4 or 2D or whatever) and a 1DX Mark II beast for high fps outdoor work sort of split the goal of the unified 1DX anyway?

Who's goal are you talking about? If you mean the consumer goal of having 'one camera to rule them all' or something to that effect, then yes. But Canon's goal is to make more profit...and the consumers' goals only matter insofar as they affect buying decisions.

Say they looked at their sales data and found few 1DIV owners with a second body also owned a 1DsIII, but many also owned a 5DII. That would suggest a high MP non-1 body would be a more profitable path.

Neuro, I'm just pointing out Canon's quest for unifying the two 1D camps -- their big marketing message when they double tapped APS-H in the back of the head and released the 1DX -- rings a little hollow in light of what will probably happen after this high MP rig is announced.

- A

 

[Eldar]

That's an expensive habit you've got there. Is there a twelve step plan available?

Well, you may spend all your money on lottery tickets, or try to become the CEO of a fast growing and profitable IT company or you can go all in for a career as a rock star

PS! I don´t buy lottery tickets and I hardly sing in the shower

 

[Loswr]

That's an expensive habit you've got there. Is there a twelve step plan available?

Yes.

Although...it's up to 14 steps, now.

 

[slclick]

Canon never do giant leaps. They do things in a proper order. The sensible thing to do is to release a high resolution camera for studio and landscape work, where the number of changed components can be controlled. A 5DIV, with no AF gamble, no memory card gamble, no new computing platform, no new internal bus architecture etc. makes perfect sense. Personally I would prefer a 1DsIV or 1DX-II (you choose), but I suspect I will have to wait. But with my newborn addiction to manual focus Zeiss lenses, that may be what I should be waiting for ...

So my earlier comment about studio and landscape, which was ridiculed, is now commonly accepted?

Oh wait, it was only ridiculed by Dilbert who actually has less Forum cache than I do.

 

[lintoni]

That's an expensive habit you've got there. Is there a twelve step plan available?

Yes.

Although...it's up to 14 steps, now.

Eek! That's way too rich for my blood... think I'd better stick with my Samyang 14mm!

 

[Loswr]

That's an expensive habit you've got there. Is there a twelve step plan available?

Yes.

Although...it's up to 14 steps, now.

Eek! That's way too rich for my blood... think I'd better stick with my Samyang 14mm!

I have four MF lenses – three from Canon (17+24 TS-E and the MP-E 65), and the Samyang 14/2.8 (which I use for astro, and it's great).

So far, I've avoided being bitten by the Zeiss lens bug. Well...for my personal photography, at any rate. I've bought ~$2MM in Zeiss research equipment (not my money, of course), of which close to ~$200K was for 'lenses' (microscope objectives).

 

[LetTheRightLensIn]

It almost needs to be both semi-high fps (at the very least in cropped modes (sRAW or mRAW speed won't do it since those kill all the reach for sports and wildlife)) and high DR otherwise if it is very slow then it's not longer quite as great for sports and wildlife too...

Although I'm sure many of us consumers would want that, I doubt Canon will see it as a need. I say 4 fps max, no crop mode.

I think that would be a dangerous game as I said though.

Once it has no crop mode (to provide reach with speed) and is a 4fps only camera it becomes much less general purpose and much more landscape oriented, at which point a less expensive Sony+adapter might seem more enticing for many. If the Sony couldn't take Canon lenses, they might manage to get away with it, but the Sony stuff can be adapted so....

Anyway, if it has a crop mode, which would cost zero in parts to implement and only the most utterly minimal in human programming resources (so only the worst of marketing droidism and Canon we didn't do it first so it can't be goodism, would deny it such a mode), and they let it hit 7fps in cropped mode than it suddenly becomes very exciting compared to the Sony stuff. You get even more MP, the same DR (I'm going the perhaps insane assumption that Canon won't release high MP FF unless they can match on DR, sadly I feel I will be disappointed though, but I will assume I won't here) and you get a built-in crop camera with tons of reach and speed. That looks way more enticing than the Sony stuff.

If it has slow fps at FF and no crop mode for speed and doesn't match DR and costs more.... then yikes.

 

[LetTheRightLensIn]

If anyone thinks Canon wasn't going to one-up Nikon, Sony et al...they haven't been paying attention. Market leaders like Canon don't jump at the first trendy innovation brought to the market (i.e. 4K on your wristwatch cam), market leaders got there by having proven, reliable, differentiated technology, and support for it and that takes time. Sony's A7s is an EXTRAORDINARY camera - no doubt. But those Canon pros that sold all their Canon gear to move to Sony on a whim this year will be regretting it - at least financially - when Canon introduces this or similar camera in early 2015. Sony's camera division makes money, the rest of Sony does not. The bankruptcy dangers for Sony are very real and have been for a few years....you don't read anything about Canon having financial issues though. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sony sell off it's photo unit entirely to raise cash if they can't make the rest of their businesses profitable soon.

Market leaders do do that, they sit, milk, stagnate and over time get replaced by the next hungry, charging forward tech company.