New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]

[sdsr]

[....]

A perfect second camera will be the A7r ...which means the waiting's theoretically over..once I have it, no matter how good the rumored megapixel offering will be, I wont buy another camera for at least three years. The best thing about mirror less is that we are not tied to one brand anymore. I can walk into a shop today and get a camera that will fit my TS24...36mp and that lens sounds very tempting to me!

Why are we waiting so long for Canons megapixel offering?

As you point out, the only people who have to wait are brand loyalists. Obviously some people have to be, but those who don't might as well do what some of us have done and supplement our Canon bodies with an A7r. I love mine, both with its superb native primes and my Canon EF lenses (plus a few old manual focus lenses) - so much so that I'm not sure which is my second camera....

 

[unfocused]

...I'm not sure where you get your viewpoint. I shoot advertising images and I do use a 5dmk3, but the files are almost always on the edge of usability...a large proportion of the professional advertising market..

How big is that market? Is it big enough to drive Canon's R&D and marketing strategy? Maybe Canon is willing to let that market go (for a while) to avoid making a costly mistake.

...I guess they could, but I would have thought there's credibility in owning the top end of the market.

paul

I don't disagree. I think it's just a question of what that credibility might be worth...especially during difficult economic times.

My perspective is this: The entire professional market has been shrinking. I don't think anyone can deny that. Some segments may be growing, but even in the growing areas, they are more price sensitive than ever before.

That's not just photography, but just about everywhere. Companies want to get the most for their money and are slashing expenses everywhere they can.

That's reduced the overall market for professional photographers...it's reduced the budgets that are available to hire professional photographers...and it's reduced the resources available to companies like Canon. Those who are at the top of the market may be feeling this less than others as you may have clients who are less price sensitive, but I strongly suspect that for the bulk of the market, photography, like any service, is under intense pressure to hold down costs.

I think, but certainly don't know, that Canon has concentrated on the markets first where they can sell the most at the best profit. I think the 5DIII was perfectly suited to that strategy. The improved autofocus met pent up demand and the improved high ISO performance made it attractive to event and wedding photographers, which is probably the largest remaining pool of professionals out there.

The D800 to me, has always seemed like a fine camera, but it didn't appear to have as clear of a market. I can understand the appeal of advertising shooters but just how large is that market? My sense is that it is concentrated in large cities and I can't believe that the numbers are anywhere close to the numbers of wedding and event photographers. Professional landscape photographers are an even tinier subset of the professional base.

So, my premise is simply this: I think Canon went first for the largest market with the 5DIII. They actually "over-delivered" based on what people were demanding. (Go back and read threads from when the 5DIII first came out and see how many wedding photographers were ecstatic over the ISO performance and how many others were stunned that Canon would put almost the same autofocus as the 1DX in the 5DIII.)

The high megapixel market is a niche market. For those who need it, it is critically important. I understand that. I just don't know how many people need it.

So, this all goes back to my main premise, which is that the most cost effective approach for Canon would be to take an existing model (either the 1DX or the 5DIII) and produce a High Definition or HD version. That would allow them to maximize some production efficiencies while meeting the more narrow needs of those who want or need a higher definition body.

Long post I know, but trying to explain my reasoning. If you can show me where I am wrong, please do. You know the market better than I do and perhaps I'm totally off base, but so far, no one has been able to show me that.

 

[LetTheRightLensIn]

Can movie theaters show 4K movies with their digital projectors? I'm not really sure what resolution the average 'non-hollywood' film is shot in though. I would assume it is 1080p or the wide screen equivalent.

At this point, some theaters can and some can't.

I just got a 4k monitor and I have to say some of the 4k clips are pretty amazing! It finally starts feeling more like you are there rather than looking at a digital video file. and it's awesome for stills images of course. and anything to do with text for that matter too.

 

[LetTheRightLensIn]

The reason they haven't come out with the thing you personally want is that they don't have to. They will produce new products when the market demands them. Until then, they'll milk (MILC?) the R&D they already have invested in the current line.

Granted the camera business is much different so this is maybe slightly sketchy of a comparison, but such an attitude isn't always the best for a company. Look at Atari, the engineers wanted them to release an advanced new computer with GUI and mouse and multi-tasking and crazy level graphics and audio but the management said they hadn't finished milking the old 8bit line yet and saw no point in it. Who uses an Atari home computer today? Plenty of other such cases.

(Even look at lower end video. The 5D3 didn't really make much of a splash compared to the 5D2 among movie-makes (my impression anyway) until Magic Lantern unlocked a lot more quality. it may have been coincidence but I couldn't help but notice that the 5D3 price had slumped quite a lot and then ML RAW came out for it and the price shot back up to full list for quite some time again. They went into market segmentation, protection mode instead of full steam ahead domination mode.)

I hope the rumor is for real and that they will finally have improved low ISO DR too (even bigger to me than upping the MP count). If it could still handle 1080p ML RAW, add in nice compressed in cam 4k (and please, please turn off the NR and smoothing digic so loves to do! canon loves to give this crisp details on contrasty edges and then give a plastic look to everything else with their in cam processing), bump the MP count, get exmor-like DR and maintain 6fps man that would be one awesome camera. And they certainly have, IMO, the nicest lens line-up around to go with it. They also need to allow for cropped modes so when shooting distance limited stuff to take advantage of the reach of the MP bump you don't waste so much storage on the edges, that might also allow for even higher fps (although >6fps FF mirror boxes do start to add to cost it's true, so hard to say about fps).

 

[Orangutan]

...I would have thought there's credibility in owning the top end of the market.

I don't disagree. I think it's just a question of what that credibility might be worth...especially during difficult economic times.

How many people buy DSLRs based on the top-end? How many care what name plate is on the big white lenses and brick-like bodies at sporting events? How many bought Canon equipment because they saw Art Wolfe on TV? A few maybe, but not many. More likely the choice is made based on what "celebrities" pitch, and and what their friends shoot. Mercedes Benz could not expect much from the name if they got into the budget car market.

 

[Orangutan]

The reason they haven't come out with the thing you personally want is that they don't have to. They will produce new products when the market demands them. Until then, they'll milk (MILC?) the R&D they already have invested in the current line.

Granted the camera business is much different so this is maybe slightly sketchy of a comparison, but such an attitude isn't always the best for a company. Look at Atari, the engineers wanted them to release an advanced new computer with GUI and mouse and multi-tasking and crazy level graphics and audio but the management said they hadn't finished milking the old 8bit line yet and saw no point in it. Who uses an Atari home computer today? Plenty of other such cases.

Canon is a large, diversified company with a lot of R&D and clever management. I would be surprised if they don't have the basic tech available when the need (==strong market pressure) arises. If some other company starts out-competing the 5D3 and 1DX, I am confident that Canon can match their products in a year or less.

The fact that Canon HAS not put advanced tech in the cameras does not mean they CAN not do so.

 

[Don Haines]

...I would have thought there's credibility in owning the top end of the market.

I don't disagree. I think it's just a question of what that credibility might be worth...especially during difficult economic times.

How many people buy DSLRs based on the top-end? How many care what name plate is on the big white lenses and brick-like bodies at sporting events? How many bought Canon equipment because they saw Art Wolfe on TV? A few maybe, but not many. More likely the choice is made based on what "celebrities" pitch, and and what their friends shoot. Mercedes Benz could not expect much from the name if they got into the budget car market.

In the canon world, it's the T3i that's really sells, followed by the T5i, the 70D, the 6D, the 5D3, and the 1DX pulling up the rear for sales..... Without an exception, lower priced models outsell higher price models.... Obviously price is the major factor...

Most will be saying "Who is Art Wolfe". Some will remember Ashton Kutcher was in a Camera commercial, but most won't remember what brand he was plugging..... It's kind of like car adds.... They all say the same thing and after a while they all blend in together....

Friends are a bigger influence.

 

[ecka]

I would expect a 88.4MP 4K FF sensor (11520x7680)

 

[Loswr]

Friends are a bigger influence.

Price and availability are probably bigger still.

 

[Don Haines]

Friends are a bigger influence.

Price and availability are probably bigger still.

Which is why I said that price is the major factor....

But you are right about availability, the lower cameras can be bought almost anywhere... You see them in electronics stores, department stores, I've even seen rebels for sale in a grocery store and in small town general stores. I live near Ottawa, the Capitol city of Canada with over a million people, and if I wanted a 1DX I would have to order it in because nobody stocks them.

 

[dslrdummy]

[....]

A perfect second camera will be the A7r ...which means the waiting's theoretically over..once I have it, no matter how good the rumored megapixel offering will be, I wont buy another camera for at least three years. The best thing about mirror less is that we are not tied to one brand anymore. I can walk into a shop today and get a camera that will fit my TS24...36mp and that lens sounds very tempting to me!

Why are we waiting so long for Canons megapixel offering?

As you point out, the only people who have to wait are brand loyalists. Obviously some people have to be, but those who don't might as well do what some of us have done and supplement our Canon bodies with an A7r. I love mine, both with its superb native primes and my Canon EF lenses (plus a few old manual focus lenses) - so much so that I'm not sure which is my second camera....

I'm not necessarily a brand loyalist but the economic reality is that I have invested in Canon and to change to a completely incompatible brand now isn't feasible for me. I have looked closely at the A7r for that reason but there seem to be three big question marks - light leak, AF performance and IQ when using an EF adaptor. You clearly love your A7r but what is your experience with these issues if you don't mind me asking?

 

[tron]

Northlightttttttttt? This is a CR0 rumor. Next please

 

[moreorless]

I think the A7r really shows again that resolution sells best when its relatively cheap, the same with the D800 and the 5D2 before it. The biggest part of the market here is I'd say amateur landscape shooters but even pro's potentially moving from MF are often doing so due to price.

In Sony's case I think you can argue that the price for the whole system isn't actually that low given that the lenses seem rather overpriced(especially the 35mm F/2.8 which seems like it should be a £200 lens not a £750 one) but if your adapting Canon that's obviously not an issue.

 

[RGF]

I would expect a 44.2MP 4K FF sensor (11520x7680)

Curious - how did you get that sensor size?

Isn't 4k twice 1080 which is 1920 x 1080 so twice would be 3820 x 2160?

 

[Lawliet]

I have looked closely at the A7r for that reason but there seem to be three big question marks - light leak, AF performance and IQ when using an EF adaptor.

The light leak story is imho overblown, thats unless you regularly shoot with dense ND filters. Mileage varies with lens choice - how tight are the tolerances of the mount and how susceptible to stray light effects is the lens as such?

IQ-wise the adapter contains no optics, its just an extension tube. While the additional tolerances introduced by the second mount are measurable most of the time just about every other source of error will dominate.

AF? I got the A7r for its manual focusing facilities.
Esp with the TS-E lenses AF is...well...you'd be waiting for eternity. With native lenses its ok, with promising developments(see a6k), adapted its more a proof of concept to me.

 

[tron]

I would expect a 44.2MP 4K FF sensor (11520x7680)

Can't you even multiply ?

11520x7680 = 88473600 = 88.4MP

 

[sagittariansrock]

Why are we waiting so long for Canons megapixel offering? Personally I just don't think their technology is there yet... ( but I would love to be wrong! )

Again, the question is not whether they have or don't have the tech, it's whether Canon's number crunchers think it will be profitable. The sales of the D800 and A7R have been lackluster, so what's the point of doing a studio/landscape camera that won't make you a healthy profit? Don't get me wrong: I'm glad the D800 and A7R are out there to push the tech and increase user demand. I just believe that Canon uses smart business strategy: they make products that sell profitably.

I am pretty sure if and when Canon have fully developed a marketable high-megapixel sensor, they won't let D800/E and A7r sales deter them from putting it in a camera and putting it out there. If the market for it doesn't exist, Canon PR will make sure to create one.
By the way, I have heard 5DIII sales trump D800 sales, makes sense, but do you know for a fact that D800 sales have been lackluster?

 

[Orangutan]

If the market for it doesn't exist, Canon PR will make sure to create one.

Your opinion of Canon marketing is higher than mine.

By the way, I have heard 5DIII sales trump D800 sales, makes sense, but do you know for a fact that D800 sales have been lackluster?

Of course, true sales numbers are proprietary, so we can't be sure. At least in the US, we can get a little help from Amazon.com.

D800: #17 in Camera & Photo > Digital SLRs
D800E: #74 in Camera & Photo > Digital SLRs

5D3: #9 in Camera & Photo > Digital SLRs
5D3 kit (w/24-105): #13

So both distribution versions of the 5D3 are significantly higher than the D800 (which doesn't appear to have a kit version)

Lackluster is certainly relative, but if you consider these two to be direct competitors (as many seem to), the less-expensive D800, with better sensor, is selling at a significantly slower rate than the more expensive 5D3. If I'm Canon, I'm happy about this; if I'm Nikon, I'm not happy about this. I'd call that lackluster.

 

[Aglet]

I think Canon chose to put out a 5d3 all-rounder instead of a class-leading hi-MP FF body like the d800 partly because they really don't yet have the ability to produce something like that 36MP sensor. You can't put out a product for bragging rights if you don't qualify.

The 5d3 fills the bill for those who asked for such, for those who wanted more resolution and cleaner, more malleable files the D800 was available.

As far as making a niche product for bragging rights, TSE 17mm, anyone?..

 

[sanj]

This actually makes sense to me, although I've been skeptical about Canon's "need" to release a high megapixel full frame camera.

I'll go back to a prediction I make quite a while back – I can see Canon releasing a "5D HD" that offers a pixel density somewhere in the same neighborhood as the 7D (46 mp), perhaps a little less. Same body, same basic functionality (with a slower frame rate likely) just a new sensor and maybe a little faster processor.

It would give customers a choice, but keep their production costs down since many of the components could be shared by both bodies. Canon has see the D800 sales figures, so they know that high megapixels aren't in huge demand, but they probably also know there is a small subset of customers that will pay a premium for more resolution. Give them what they want, but keep the production costs down.

hi, im not sure where you get your viewpoint. i shoot advertising images and i do use a 5dmk3, but the files are almost always on the edge of usability. if there is cropping, or shadows pulled up(or sky recovered) the canon is terrible. the only reason i haven't changed systems is that i shoot with a very shallow dof and the canon has the best lenses for this.
I have tested the d800e and i have brought a sony a7r and in every test i have done with the cameras together the sony sensor absolutely eats the canon. i find the latitude of the nikon and sony cameras closer to my p65+ (but obvious less res) but even better with the darks getting pulled up.
i don't know about the amateur market, but a large promotion of the professional advertising market (not the editorial or sports) has moved to the nikon d800e from the canon and even a lot have dropped medium format for nikon. i could list a dozen photographers in the top of their fields in the world now shooting with nikon. and thats just out of the few advertising photographers i know personally.

im not saying the nikon is the best for usability- the canon has the best interface, lenses and AF, but the file itself is very disappointing. i say this from a lot of canon file experience (I've shot at least 400,000 files with the 5dmk3 in the last few years). the 5dmk3 is a bit of a love hate camera for me..

i really hope canon answers with a better file (latitude wise)- higher MP (which is badly needed for my market) so i can throw away slow, difficult medium format and only need one camera for everything i shoot.

paul

I know 4 personally. And I do not know many photographers...