New Full Frame Camera in 2014? [CR1]

paulrossjones said:
Orangutan said:
paulrossjones said:
a large promotion of the professional advertising market..

How big is that market? Is it big enough to drive Canon's R&D and marketing strategy? Maybe Canon is willing to let that market go (for a while) to avoid making a costly mistake.

i guess they could, but i would have thought theres credibility in owning the top end of the market. the local dealer over here also says the d800 is really well. but maybe you are right?
but i think canon would be silly if they thought like that. its the resin that car manufactures have a limited run sports car- to set their place in the market. i can't see canon just letting the D800e be the best camera on the market.
and they can sell these at a lot higher cost- i am not that cost driven - nor any of the guys i mentioned early. sure we like saving money, but the features of the camera to make life easier is more important. cameras are one the cheapest part of our kits- we didn't ask for it to be this way, but it makes it easy to have multiple bodies etc. the original 1ds cost me 15k nod (12k usd) and it paid for itself on one job. happy to pay this much again for a "niche" market version of a canon camera that can answer the d800.
i heard a while back there was 9000 professional photographers in the UK alone- not sure if this figure is right, but i wouldn't be surprised. even if these people didn't really need the megapixels- i guarantee they would not be able to help them selves if there was a higher megapixel camera available. i can see that even wedding photographers could do with more megapixels- to allow for cropping and different formats. pixel binning makes for better files as well when downsized.

paul

I thought so too...
 
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Orangutan said:
unfocused said:
paulrossjones said:
...I would have thought there's credibility in owning the top end of the market.

I don't disagree. I think it's just a question of what that credibility might be worth...especially during difficult economic times.

How many people buy DSLRs based on the top-end? How many care what name plate is on the big white lenses and brick-like bodies at sporting events? How many bought Canon equipment because they saw Art Wolfe on TV? A few maybe, but not many. More likely the choice is made based on what "celebrities" pitch, and and what their friends shoot. Mercedes Benz could not expect much from the name if they got into the budget car market.

I would think the opposite! A mid priced Merc would sell well IMHO.
 
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sanj said:
I would think the opposite! A mid priced Merc would sell well IMHO.

But only if they
a) manage to keep the level of quality&performance up despite the lower price, otherwise expect backlash.
b) keep the air of exclusivity&luxury that makes the car covetable in the first place.
..think NEX in Hasselblad clothing, though the current state of affairs in that department could be worse.

Something to keep in mind about the 5D800-story: is it just a question of sensor resolution? Or rather a matter of being in an existing ecosystem, or the added effort that has to be made to make actual use of the potential resolution? And then there is the field of pictures in motion, if thats even part of your job description Canon wins more or less by default.
 
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These threads always polarize the forum community, but I do think there is a market for high-resolution sensors. And I believe Canon is aware of this, and are trying to develop such a system (Zeiss mentions the word "high-resolution sensors" multiple times in their Otus announcement, and they cater to both Canon and Nikon). However, given Canon's recent trend towards bringing out the absolute top products in their class, it is more than likely that they are spending the extra time and effort to create something great rather than settling for good. After all, with good sales on their existing products they don't need to push out something before it's ready.
 
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unfocused said:
This actually makes sense to me, although I've been skeptical about Canon's "need" to release a high megapixel full frame camera.

I'll go back to a prediction I make quite a while back – I can see Canon releasing a "5D HD" that offers a pixel density somewhere in the same neighborhood as the 7D (46 mp), perhaps a little less. Same body, same basic functionality (with a slower frame rate likely) just a new sensor and maybe a little faster processor.

It would give customers a choice, but keep their production costs down since many of the components could be shared by both bodies. Canon has seen the D800 sales figures, so they know that high megapixels aren't in huge demand, but they probably also know there is a small subset of customers that will pay a premium for more resolution. Give them what they want, but keep the production costs down.

Even in the face of this rumor which is contrary to some of your predictions, you're still falling back on them? The main thing I notice in this rumor, is that the "3D" will have 4k video capability. That is not "the same basic functionality" as a 5D3. This model is obviously intended to be upmarket from the 5D3. Slower frame rates for stills, no doubt...but it's going to be able to do a lot more video-wise.
 
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ecka said:
1920*3=5760 which is exactly what 5D3 got.
3840*3=11520

That would be a 2:1 aspect ratio, not much love here. And It would require odd blending/skipping patterns to capture standard video. Not much love either.

The first fitting, in tradition of the 5760px of the 5D3, resolution would be 1920*2*2 - to get full RGB for 4k-video and 39.3MP stills. going for the slightly larger 4096 flavor would net you 44.7MP. Current OTS cores can handle that resolution up to about 30fps; in a dual config. that should work even with continuous AF. no line skipping also implies less moire and less noise at higher ISOs. Dual photodiodes allow for higher low ISO DR. Who could argue against such a machine?
 
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CarlTN said:
unfocused said:
This actually makes sense to me, although I've been skeptical about Canon's "need" to release a high megapixel full frame camera.

I'll go back to a prediction I make quite a while back – I can see Canon releasing a "5D HD" that offers a pixel density somewhere in the same neighborhood as the 7D (46 mp), perhaps a little less. Same body, same basic functionality (with a slower frame rate likely) just a new sensor and maybe a little faster processor.

It would give customers a choice, but keep their production costs down since many of the components could be shared by both bodies. Canon has seen the D800 sales figures, so they know that high megapixels aren't in huge demand, but they probably also know there is a small subset of customers that will pay a premium for more resolution. Give them what they want, but keep the production costs down.

Even in the face of this rumor which is contrary to some of your predictions, you're still falling back on them? The main thing I notice in this rumor, is that the "3D" will have 4k video capability. That is not "the same basic functionality" as a 5D3. This model is obviously intended to be upmarket from the 5D3. Slower frame rates for stills, no doubt...but it's going to be able to do a lot more video-wise.

I don`t think they will name it `3D`because its misleading... people will think that it can do 3D video...
 
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sagittariansrock said:
These threads always polarize the forum community, but I do think there is a market for high-resolution sensors. And I believe Canon is aware of this, and are trying to develop such a system (Zeiss mentions the word "high-resolution sensors" multiple times in their Otus announcement, and they cater to both Canon and Nikon). However, given Canon's recent trend towards bringing out the absolute top products in their class, it is more than likely that they are spending the extra time and effort to create something great rather than settling for good. After all, with good sales on their existing products they don't need to push out something before it's ready.

New systems will double, if not triple, in price. I guess I could afford them, if I don't travel (or eat) ;D
 
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Lawliet said:
ecka said:
1920*3=5760 which is exactly what 5D3 got.
3840*3=11520

That would be a 2:1 aspect ratio, not much love here. And It would require odd blending/skipping patterns to capture standard video. Not much love either.

The first fitting, in tradition of the 5760px of the 5D3, resolution would be 1920*2*2 - to get full RGB for 4k-video and 39.3MP stills. going for the slightly larger 4096 flavor would net you 44.7MP. Current OTS cores can handle that resolution up to about 30fps; in a dual config. that should work even with continuous AF. no line skipping also implies less moire and less noise at higher ISOs. Dual photodiodes allow for higher low ISO DR. Who could argue against such a machine?

Yes, 39.3MP would be nice for 3840*2 and 1920*2*2 (or 1920*2 crop mode). I just have this feeling, that Canon wants to bring something exclusive to the market. Something the competition can't match any time soon.
 
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mkabi said:
CarlTN said:
unfocused said:
This actually makes sense to me, although I've been skeptical about Canon's "need" to release a high megapixel full frame camera.

I'll go back to a prediction I make quite a while back – I can see Canon releasing a "5D HD" that offers a pixel density somewhere in the same neighborhood as the 7D (46 mp), perhaps a little less. Same body, same basic functionality (with a slower frame rate likely) just a new sensor and maybe a little faster processor.

It would give customers a choice, but keep their production costs down since many of the components could be shared by both bodies. Canon has seen the D800 sales figures, so they know that high megapixels aren't in huge demand, but they probably also know there is a small subset of customers that will pay a premium for more resolution. Give them what they want, but keep the production costs down.

Even in the face of this rumor which is contrary to some of your predictions, you're still falling back on them? The main thing I notice in this rumor, is that the "3D" will have 4k video capability. That is not "the same basic functionality" as a 5D3. This model is obviously intended to be upmarket from the 5D3. Slower frame rates for stills, no doubt...but it's going to be able to do a lot more video-wise.

I don`t think they will name it `3D`because its misleading... people will think that it can do 3D video...
Oh but it will! It will just be the 3DsMkIV turbo gti-plus model ;D
 
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dslrdummy said:
sdsr said:
As you point out, the only people who have to wait are brand loyalists. Obviously some people have to be, but those who don't might as well do what some of us have done and supplement our Canon bodies with an A7r. I love mine, both with its superb native primes and my Canon EF lenses (plus a few old manual focus lenses) - so much so that I'm not sure which is my second camera....

I'm not necessarily a brand loyalist but the economic reality is that I have invested in Canon and to change to a completely incompatible brand now isn't feasible for me. I have looked closely at the A7r for that reason but there seem to be three big question marks - light leak, AF performance and IQ when using an EF adaptor. You clearly love your A7r but what is your experience with these issues if you don't mind me asking?

I don't mind at all.

1. It's not a "completely incompatible" system; they overlap. Whether they overlap enough for your purposes I can't say, of course. I would also say that for many people a complete switch to Sony wouldn't be sensible or desirable, and that I have no intention of doing so. For me it's a marvelous adjunct which, in some situations, would be my go-to camera - at least until Canon comes up with a close substitute (high resolution, mirrorless, no loss of EF performance, etc. - preferably with IBIS...).

2. The light leak applies under very limited circumstances, apparently (very long exposures in near-total darkness but with a bright light hitting part of the lens mount), and doesn't only apply to Sony cameras. Check out Roger Cicala's blog post on the subject at lensrentals. I never shoot in such conditions, so it's simply not an issue for me (or, I suspect, for 99.9% of people 99.9% of the time). The shutter-shock problem is far more real (see below).

3. AF performance with EF lenses is unquestionably inferior in terms of speed - it's not *that* slow, but if you're used to the near-instantaneous focusing you get with the best Canon lens/body combinations it will seem slow (rather comical too - it ambles towards the subject, pauses, goes a bit beyond and then comes back); and it's slow compared to native FE lenses, of course. But it's probably not inferior in terms of accuracy; in some respects it's superior: one benefit of a mirrorless body is that with on-sensor focusing there's no need to worry about back/front focusing. If you plan to use it to photograph things that don't move, it's not an issue. But don't even consider it if you want to photograph sports, children running around, herons-catching-fish, etc. and rely on AF to do so.

4. As for IQ, I've used these EF lenses: 24-105L, 28mm 2.8 IS, 40mm, 85mm 1.8, 100 L (no AF with this, but the other electronic connections work) and 70-200 f4 IS. I haven't performed anything resembling a scientific comparison of these lenses on the A7R vs 5DIII or 6D, but I feel confident in saying that not only is the image quality not inferior on the Sony body it's probably superior (I was shocked by the superb image quality I was able to get from the 85mm 1.8 when I first attached it).

At the time I decided to buy an A7R I had used one exclusively with Canon lenses - it was because the results were so good that I wanted one, and it was not until I had owned it for a while that I bought the two native FE primes; they're superb too, especially the remarkable 55mm 1.8.

Having said all that, there may well be Canon lenses that don't work as well on the two Sony A7s - I have no first hand knowledge one way or another - but based on what I've read the main problems are with wide angle Leica lenses due to a design that simply doesn't apply to Canon lenses. I would also add that if you want to use old Canon MF lenses, it's far easier to manually focus on a mirrorless camera (thanks to magnification and focus peaking) than it is on any dslr, especially if you use wide apertures; and Sony's focus peaking and magnification work at least as well as anyone else's.

5. One flaw you didn't mention is the much-discussed shutter-shock. This is real, and, in my experience, shows up if your shutter speed is 1/100-1/125, regardless of the lens (apparently it's worse if you use a tripod, but I don't and thus can't comment). It doesn't seem to be a problem at other speeds, including slower speeds (though you may encounter the usual too-slow-shutter problems if you're not using a lens with IS; IS has no effect on shutter-shock, of course); I've taken plenty of sharp photos at 1/60 (a speed these cameras seem inordinately fond of if you let them decide the shutter speed). If you avoid 1/100-1/125 you'll be fine.

I hope some of this helps. Far more competent/savvy/knowledgeable people than I have written about all of this, though, so don't rely too much on what I've written!
 
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RGF said:
sagittariansrock said:
These threads always polarize the forum community, but I do think there is a market for high-resolution sensors. And I believe Canon is aware of this, and are trying to develop such a system (Zeiss mentions the word "high-resolution sensors" multiple times in their Otus announcement, and they cater to both Canon and Nikon). However, given Canon's recent trend towards bringing out the absolute top products in their class, it is more than likely that they are spending the extra time and effort to create something great rather than settling for good. After all, with good sales on their existing products they don't need to push out something before it's ready.

New systems will double, if not triple, in price. I guess I could afford them, if I don't travel (or eat) ;D

Yup. Pretty much.
 
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Always interesting to see what people would like in a new camera body, video, small size, etc etc.

For myself I can't see Canon wanting to compete with the likes of Phase One, Mamiya & Haselblad, even with the new 50MP CMOS Sensor developed by Sony, this is a small and crowded enough market.

What I could see Canon developing would be something +/- 40MP, that can utilise their current AF system (61 Point), possibly something in the order of 4/5 fps.

I can't comment on video because I'm one of those that still feels if you want video, buy a video camera.

The ONLY issues I see with Phase One IQ280 is iso max at 800, .75 fps and what amounts to a single centre AF point (they do have 3 small off set from centre points but they are pretty well useless) but for anyone to argue against the IQ of the Files is ridiculous, as a Photographer who wants less then the best IQ ?? The issue for me (excluding price of course) with the Phase One, is usability in my chosen field of Photography, Wildlife, the IQ 280 is unbeatable today in portrait, landscape, still life, the IQ250 goes someway to resolving for the "action" photographer some of these issues, better ISO performance out to 6400, 1.5 fps, both systems on Phase One with a Leaf Shutter Lens give you synced flash @ 1/1600th, impossible in todays dslr cameras and non leaf shutter lenses.

If Canon can produce a sensor of +/- 40MP, current AF system, 4-6 fps, resolve the issues current with banding in the shadows (sorry, Canon's sensors suck in this area compared to Nikon let alone a Phase One system), then I believe there's a real Market for this type of Camera, and Nikon/Sony are proving that right now with their D800/D800E & a7r, unlike many on CR I don't agree that these Cameras are selling poorly, I think they sell to People that want this type of Camera (i.e.. Larger Sensor, better Files), not the Mass Market.
 
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mkabi said:
CarlTN said:
unfocused said:
This actually makes sense to me, although I've been skeptical about Canon's "need" to release a high megapixel full frame camera.

I'll go back to a prediction I make quite a while back – I can see Canon releasing a "5D HD" that offers a pixel density somewhere in the same neighborhood as the 7D (46 mp), perhaps a little less. Same body, same basic functionality (with a slower frame rate likely) just a new sensor and maybe a little faster processor.

It would give customers a choice, but keep their production costs down since many of the components could be shared by both bodies. Canon has seen the D800 sales figures, so they know that high megapixels aren't in huge demand, but they probably also know there is a small subset of customers that will pay a premium for more resolution. Give them what they want, but keep the production costs down.

Even in the face of this rumor which is contrary to some of your predictions, you're still falling back on them? The main thing I notice in this rumor, is that the "3D" will have 4k video capability. That is not "the same basic functionality" as a 5D3. This model is obviously intended to be upmarket from the 5D3. Slower frame rates for stills, no doubt...but it's going to be able to do a lot more video-wise.

I don`t think they will name it `3D`because its misleading... people will think that it can do 3D video...

Really? I know people in general are pretty stupid but THAT stupid?...
dunno
 
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I'd like to see quad-pixel technology come out... with a sensor where you can bin all four sub-pixels together and have a 10Megapixel FF sensor with kick-ass low light capacity or access the sub-pixels and have a 40Megapixel high resolution sensor....
 
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