Speculation on 5D III vs 5D IV, 1DX vs 1DX II, 5D IV vs 1DX? etc.

[rocksubculture]

It seems like late 2015/2016 will see announcements and (maybe) releases of either the 5D IV and/or 1DX II...

Based on Canon's upgrades on the 5D and 1D series in the past, I'd be curious about a round up of what we know from rumors on this site as well as thoughts from other Canon users about the following:

What is likely to come first, a 5D IV or 1DX II?

If the 5D IV comes before the 1DX II, will the likely advancements in the 5D IV make the current 1DX a much less viable value proposition?

It would seem like a higher FPS and overall speed (and probably more advanced focusing system) and improved ISO capabilities in low light (and a likely bump in resolution) on a 5D IV is a given, putting it much more competitive (and probably in some ways superior) compared with the existing 1DX. If so, would Canon drop the price of the 1DX more (or have a substantial rebate/instant rebate)?

The above makes me think that maybe the announcements would be close or concurrent. Or am I missing something?

Or do those factors make it likely that the 1DX II (or at least announcement thereof) would most certainly precede the announcement of the 5D IV?

The prices of the 5D III and 1DX continue to drop (especially from non-authorized dealers and as a result of exchange rates with other territories)... when each model is ultimately replaced, how long do you think the former model will continue to be available at retail? Or does Canon typically plan well enough that there is not much in channel to last long anyway? What do you think will ultimately be the bottom price for a new at retail 1DX? (I saw one new from a non-dealer on eBay over the weekend for $4,000)? What about the 5D III (which has been going in volume for grey market new copies at around $2,000)?

What do people expect the retail price to be for the 5D IV and 1DX II to be when released?

How soon after do you think the 6D II will be released to hold that "entry level" full frame spot in their line-up?

Is the current price (close to $1,000 street) for the 6D enough of an incentive for Canon to release a follow-up (6D II) around the same time as the 5D IV and 1DX II, at a much higher price (upwards of $2,000), to take away the large gap between the current 6D (around $1,000) and the 5D IV ($3,000-$4,000) and 1DX II ($6,500-$7,500?)?

Do you think a 6D II might adopt the current focus system of the 5D III / 7D II, as presumably the 5D IV and 1DX II will move up to the next level? If so, doesn't that make a 6D II more like the current 5D III, only with Wi-Fi and one SD card (vs 1 compact flash and 1 SD card)?

What are the chances that the 6D II will be nothing more than the existing 5D III with Wi-Fi built-in, just sort of renamed/rebranded at a reduced price? Seems like that would save them a lot on R&D costs.

Do you expect that the 1DX II will continue to feature two compact flash slots? What are the chances that it replace with two (faster) SD card slots, or maybe double up on both card types (two of each, four total) to further differentiate from the 5D IV?

What do you predict the megapixels to be for the 6D II, 5D IV, and 1DX II?

What are the chances of there being multiple variations of the 5D IV (like the 50mp 5Ds series)?

What are the chances that the 1D series will split into more than one type again?

Do you think Canon will continue to have relatively long life spans for each system, or do you think they will follow Sony's lead with annual updates and more variations on the same system (like the A7 series)?

Notice I didn't ask any questions about dynamic range (since it seems like any topic gets taken over by that already).

Jason

 

[RGF]

IMO (pure speculation) that 1Dx II will precede the 5D MV (note I did not say M4 - canon seems to love V, X, ...)

The 1V was a big hit for film cameras.

Also think the 5D MV will precede the 6D M2. Why introduce a new lower priced model, introduce the higher priced model first.

Prices will be close to the introduction price of the current models. Yen / $ will allow Canon to make more profits than they did in the past.

Exact details are wild-eyed speculation. Yes two slots, one will require CFast card.

 

[unfocused]

So many questions. So few answers.

Any response will be pure speculation.

Here is mine:

The 5DIV and 1DxII will likely be announced within a few months of one another. Hard to say which will go first.

I don't expect to see drastic price cuts, below what has already occurred, when new models are released. Why? Because most of the price cuts we are seeing are retailer-driven (either dealers or grey market). Both are trying to make a small margin on a large volume of sales.

The dynamics change when a new model is released. Neither dealers nor grey market sellers want to be stuck with inventory. Indeed, they can't afford to risk it because their margins are so thin. So, they aren't going to stock up once they believe a new model is about to be released.

You will get better deals on the used market once a new model is released and in circulation for a few months, but you will be buying used. If the improvements are incremental (which is what I expect) there may not even be many models available on the used market for some time, as people hold on to their cameras until the price of the new model falls or they just decide to skip a generation.

I actually expected to see a 6DII (or the rumored 'upmarket new model') before the 5DIV. It still seems to me there is plenty of room between the 6D and 5DIII to slot in another model, from a features standpoint. Although with the current 5DIII street prices, I'm not sure there is now enough room from a pricing standpoint.

What I expect from the 5DIII:

A few more megapixels;
Marginally better high ISO performance;
Maybe a little better dynamic range at lower ISOs, but not enough to satisfy the DRones;
DPAF;
Higher Frame Rate;
Improved Autofocus, at least equal to the 7DII and probably slightly better;
Some video improvements, at least equal to the 7DII. Not sure what else they might be.

I'm not expecting much more. I'd be pleased if it had a touch screen and better connectivity. An onboard RT controller would be nice, but I don't care as I already have an ST-E3-RT

In my dreams, Canon would use DPAF technology to create some type of feedback loop allowing the camera to easily be calibrated for slight variations in lenses and thus eliminating the need for AFMA.

I think the big challenge facing Canon is trying to pack enough improvements into a 5DIV to get people to upgrade. The market is not growing and camera manufacturers need to squeeze more money out of existing customers because there just aren't very many new customers out there.

Prior to every upgrade, people predict that Canon will not include a particular feature on a lower level camera because they don't want to "cannibalize" sales of the higher market camera. Then, Canon puts the better feature into the down market camera. People don't understand that manufacturers worry less about cannibalization of sales from one model to another than the do about losing sales to a competitor.

 

[Stu_bert]

The announcements will be later in the year, but I doubt they will not ship until early 2016. I think the target markets / users aren't buying for Xmas, but it does tend to be a quieter period for the target users, and thus affording time to get used to a new body.

The 1DX II will appear before the IV based on the 5DS and based on age.

I think the IV will have 4K video as Canon will have announced 4K devices for the film industry at NAB. How they will differentiate will be interesting. I think based on wedding photographers being a key userbase for the IV, then I think that will be expected. Not required, just expected.

Whether the 1DX II gets 4K and the rumor of Global shutters, will be interesting. I would say Global shutters will hit the film industry kit before the photographer kit, but I think the 1DX will get 4K also.

The think both bodies will get the same colour filter (CFA) as the 5Ds to improve this but DPAF on the IV only.

So yes, I would say refinements for both models, but nothing more than evolution of the current models.

I expect the IV will stay below 24MP, and I expect the 1DX will stay below 20MP. I would love Canon to release a 12-14MP 5D original model but they feel 50MP is more what landscape photographers need, and I dont have their market research insight :

If you're in the market and don't mind waiting 6-8 months, then there will be 2nd hand opportunities. I've picked up 1Ds MK III and IV second hand and they're still going strong. The same will be true on the 5D III or 1DX - shutter mechanisms aside. Pricing will be pretty much the same as the III and 1DX when launched - not noticeably lower, but they will reduce over time.

6D II will get some improvements, but I doubt AF from the 7D II / 5D III will be one of them. Maybe the original 7D AF?

No changes to 1D line until they get good feedback on the 5Ds, so later 2016 at the earliest. The main appeal for the 5Ds sensor in a 1D body is I think around ergonomics and support equipment (batteries, chargers etc).

And finally, based on a shrinking market, I dont see the Canon cycle changing much. Sony's business model is different, closer to Samsung.

All just opinions... ;D

 

[mkabi]

IMHO, either 2 things are going to happen...

5D4 will come this year without 4K (huge outrage amongst videographers if this happens).
Or
5D4 comes next year or even the year after with 4K.

My reasoning behind number 1, recent price drop of 1DC. No grey market model, straight out of the stable @ $7999 (USD). I don't think they are going to create a separate line that is a Cinema DSLR, going forward.
They will still create Cinema cameras, just not DSLR form factor that is so close to their other EOS cameras.
Going back to price drop, if you look at the Canon 1DC's price history (http://www.canonpricewatch.com/product/03900/Canon-EOS-1D-C-price.html), there is a year where after a price drop it remained constant throughout the year (without any sales). I believe this year its going to remain stable @ $7999 (USD) without any sales too (again, see price history).

I strongly believe that they are going to keep it like this and knowing that if people are waiting for the 5D4 for 4K, they are either going to be upset or they are going to wait.

I am sure that they value their customers, existing and future customers. But I believe that they value current customers more over future ones, because they don't want people to buy something like the 1DC (this year @ $7999) only to be obsolete the next year with the 5D4. People will always think about waiting for the next best thing. But then, you can be waiting forever, not doing anything productive.

They just announced the 5DS/5DSR, only to please the high resolution crowd; they just instilled confidence in Canon fans that they will release future 5D products. Their 5D3 is still selling, what is the hurry to release the 5D4??? People that are waiting can afford to wait, obviously they don't have any real projects on the way, else they would buy our 5D3, right? Or there should be a huge leap in sales in the a7s or gh4, right?

EDITTED TO ADD: If there is either another price drop or another sale (for the 1DC) that happens within the next couple of months, then I would believe that may be they are trying to get rid of inventory and so 5D4 will come with 4K.