What's Next From Canon?

[tomscott]

What ever it is... Its painful.

Although I like the 6DMKII bit of a diamond in the rought its not a shining light on paper and many people were disappointed thinking its not worth it, in practice it is different but there have been no decent releases in ages. The 5DMKIV again great camera but not worth the £3.5k ask. Ive only just picked one up because I dont think they are worth more than £2k with the rest of the competition and innovation across the board.

Then there's the recent lack lustre announcements. Its like they have given up and are just keeping things ticking away not chasing anything.

Anyone waiting and hoping for a killer mirrorless options I think will be severely disappointed. I just cant see them doing it. Canon are not the same company they were back the 2000s chasing the No1 spot not just in sales but in technology.

I wouldnt change system because i like it but they are now just tools I dont really get overly excited about what Canon are bringing to the table which is really sad. Everytime I log on to read some rumors its a pretty depressing read.

 

[Mikehit]

What ever it is... Its painful.

Although I like the 6DMKII bit of a diamond in the rought its not a shining light on paper and many people were disappointed thinking its not worth it, in practice it is different but there have been no decent releases in ages. The 5DMKIV again great camera but not worth the £3.5k ask. Ive only just picked one up because I dont think they are worth more than £2k with the rest of the competition and innovation across the board.

Then there's the recent lack lustre announcements. Its like they have given up and are just keeping things ticking away not chasing anything.

Anyone waiting and hoping for a killer mirrorless options I think will be severely disappointed. I just cant see them doing it. Canon are not the same company they were back the 2000s chasing the No1 spot not just in sales but in technology.

I wouldnt change system because i like it but they are now just tools I dont really get overly excited about what Canon are bringing to the table which is really sad. Everytime I log on to read some rumors its a pretty depressing read.

I think we are heading back to the market as it was in the days of film.
Back then, every camera had option to use the same films and what differentiated was functionality - how accurate did you want your metering? Did you want weather sealing? Did you want it built like a tank to take the rigours of a professional in the field? As such you had relatively few product lines within each manufacturer. And product turnover was sedate by today's standards.

Up until recently, DSLRs have varied by which sensor generation they have built in, ISO reliability, maximum shutter speed. Product lines have turned over rapidly as technology improved and has become an end in itself for most manufacturers. But now, the real world differences in those basic requirements is getting smaller and things like in-camera focus stacking is, on the whole, a nice headline grabber but of serious interest to very few. And the law of diminishing returns has kicked in big time - hence Olympus stating publicly that they are now concentrating on the premium lines.
So it is not surprising that rumours forums have become stagnant - I don't find it depressing, I actually find it comforting to know that they are finding it hard to add meaningful developments to the gear I have. It means that enticing me to buy the next model will take some doing and I can save my money and spend it on getting out taking photographs.

 

[Woody]

Like I said, Canon is the new Kodak.

Are MILCs game-changing like film to digital sensors, or are they are merely another evolutionary step in the digital sensor era?

Doesn't matter what you say. Canon just needs to secure another year of 50% market share.

 

[Hector1970]

I definitely agree with Mikehit we are getting into the area of diminishing returns.
It’s hard to buy a bad camera now.
Even the 1inch sensors are very good.
I have Olympus gear too. The micro 4/3 sensors are good and the lens excellent.
I can be frustrated too at times with Canons slow embrace of mirrorless but other than potentially very high FPS (which I would love to have) there isn’t a great advantage.
Size advantages seem to be counteracted by bigger lens.
Canons lens range is amazing. I couldn’t see how they could improve the 70-200mm II and it looks like Canon were short ideas too. The current range of cameras ( 1DXII aside) are not particularly exciting but they work extremely well and are reliable and ergonomically great.
Almost any Canon photographers limit today is not his gear but their imaginatio and technique.
A bad carpenter always blames their tools I suppose.
I think it all leaves Canon with a problem.
How does it improve ina meaningful way from here.
It has to battle the limitations of physics and costs.
Smaller and lighter big whites would be great.
Better tracking of moving objects would be great.
High ISO performance and better dynamic range would be desirable. Change here would only be incremental and there is a limit which we are not far from.
I think we will be holding onto gear for longer and longer.
I think in the long run Canon will move away even further away from consumer photography being a key core part of their business. Their photography business’s iceberg is melting.
Not because they are bad but because the industry got so good.

 

[Kit.]

Yes I do realize it's a rumour site. What I get from these rumours is that Canon has no idea WTF they are doing

That's just normal rumor noise. If you do not get such feeling from the rumors, it's not the rumors, but a coordinated ad campaign.

I stand by what I said - Canon is a hulking behemouth and is much too conservative and much too stodgy to change as fast as the market is changing. Virtually everyone is ready to buy or very interested in a new Canon FF mirrorless and what do they do?

Canon is not that much in the market of gadgets - they are in the market of solutions. The market of multi-k$ gadgets is quite small actually - although very noisy.

People on the market of solutions are not "ready to buy or very interested in a new Canon FF mirrorless" - unless it's a dedicated video camera. They are more interested either in improvement of more proven technologies (like faster autofocus, better IS or sharper, more flare-resistant lenses) or in something cheaper and more pocketable.

What a contrast in consumer confidence buying right now - The A7iii is constantly sold out as soon as it hits a store somewhere

That tells nothing about "consumer confidence". It only tells that Sony cannot physically deliver what they promised market-wise, and loses profits on that.

and Canon is hacking and slashing prices like crazy begging people to buy and their product is in stock everywhere.

Which products are those?

Like I said, Canon is the new Kodak. My prediction - in a year all we'll have is a few new M5 and M100 and M5 models rounding out the low end with rumours of a FF mirrorless realllllllllly soon now, ready to hit the market in fiscal year 2019 sometime.

So what?

The current photo sensor technology is not yet ready for professional-grade FF photo MILC. Canon still has a lot of time to make it right.

 

[jolyonralph]

Jolyon,
How would electrical signals get through the screw in mount plate you suggest? Break out the soldering iron. ️

I can think of two ways it could work,

One is with a screw-in plate that contains an ef-m to EF adaptor so that you either screw in the adaptor connector, then push the plate down to fix that to the body, or the other way round, it would need the adaptor to be able to move in and out relative to the plate so that it could be rotated, But there are several ways that could work.

The other is for the mount plate with EF-M and EF to be separate plates which can be exchanged. This would be the most flexible and, if you were creative and the patents not too aggressive, it'd be possible for third parties to create new mounts for this, such as Nikon.

 

[Quackator]

I place my bet that Canon sticks to EF/EF-S, with added capabilities
that are up/downward compatible. Since the mirror box leaves the
building, one can easily put a full frame sensor into a body the size
of a Rebel SL2. Also, without a mirror, lenses can protrude into the
body. This makes EF-S lenses with full frame image circle possible.
Might be handy with wide angle pancakes.

Those full frame EF-S lenses will fit older APS-C cameras, including
crop factor, of course. Owners of such a crop camera can buy a new
full frame EF-S lens without the need to switch lenses when they at
some point want to upgrade to a full frame camera.

You don't annoy the owners of 140.000.000 lenses without any reason,
and especially not when your former hardest competitor is forced to do
exactly that. Canon sells around 10.000.000 lenses a year. They don't
need a new mount to make people buy new lenses.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Virtually everyone is ready to buy or very interested in a new Canon FF mirrorless and what do they do? A whole bunch of nothing - just vaporware.

Thanks for your very cogent explanation of why Canon sells more full frame cameras than Sony. :

Isn't it embarrassing when reality makes you look foolish?

 

[jolyonralph]

You don't annoy the owners of 140.000.000 lenses without any reason,
and especially not when your former hardest competitor is forced to do
exactly that. Canon sells around 10.000.000 lenses a year. They don't
need a new mount to make people buy new lenses.

We've already heard talk that the new camera will have a new mount but that EF compatibility will be handled in an ingenious way. The idea I suggested earlier was nothing more than just putting down in words what has already been suggested.

Canon won't upset existing EF lens owners, but they also don't want to be the only manufacturer tied to a 1980s lens mount moving forwards. At the risk of upsetting existing customers they risk becoming uncompetitive when it comes to new customers.

 

[Quackator]

We've already heard talk that the new camera will have a new mount (...)

We have also heard that the moon was made from green cheese.

Canon (...) don't want to be the only manufacturer tied to a 1980s lens mount moving forwards.

There is nothing that the EF mount can't do today. Vice versa: Since Canon designed it
with such a far reaching vision, it hasn't reached it's technical limits even remotely.

No competitor has anything that the EF-mount can't do - unless you sport adapting
exotic lenses with questionable quality and short flange distances.

Others now burn bridges in the attempt to finally switch to a full electronic mount.
A move that Canon did more than thirty years ago. Today, they still have the most
modern and most compatible mount on earth.

Your talk of "80ies mount" shows one thing: You don't understand what the
capabilities of this mount are, and how amazingly visionary the engineers
have been more than 30 years ago.


At the risk of upsetting existing customers they risk becoming uncompetitive when it comes to new customers.


[/quote]

 

[john kriegsmann]

It is beyond agonizing waiting for Canon to come up with a full frame mirrorless camera almost five years after Sony's full frame cameras hit the market. The only chance Canon has of penetrating that market is for the new full frame to accommodate EF lenses. Canon's evolution of native lenses for their cropped sensor mirrorless lenses has been something less than glacial. As Canon improves the capability of their M bodies they are making cheaper slower kit lenses. The original M had an adequate 18-55 mm f5.6 lens with a metal lens mount. The M5 kit lens is a cheaper lens with fiberglass lens mount and an F 6.3. Go figure. Canon you are embarrassing yourselves.

 

[jolyonralph]

There is nothing that the EF mount can't do today. Vice versa: Since Canon designed it
with such a far reaching vision, it hasn't reached it's technical limits even remotely.

There is one thing the EF mount can't do today, and that's fit on a compact mirrorless ILC system. The competition are going small for a reason. I talk to many people who have switched from Canon and Nikon to Fuji, Panasonic, Sony and (rarely) Canon EF-M because they want something smaller and lighter.

Of course there's the occasional (usually) birder who in one breath complains that they won't buy a mirrorless because they prefer an OVF and in the next screams that Canon will be stupid for abandoning the EF mount on the mirrorless camera they won't buy.

If EF mount was so fantastic the EOS-M series would have been launched with EF-S mount.

 

[jeffa4444]

I wonder how many "experts" on here have made a camera or designed a lens. Law of diminishing returns is non-sense, lenses can still be improved, cameras can add features that can improve over time like dual-pixel, or improved auto metering (or perhaps those same people get every exposure right?). Curved sensors that flex can correct for vignetting or image fall off I could go on all day.

Canon know what they are doing, they have access to more data from multiple sources than we do, they file more patents than any of there competitors, and they have production down to a T. They have sold over 130M EF lenses currently around 10M per year.

 

[transpo1]

Virtually everyone is ready to buy or very interested in a new Canon FF mirrorless and what do they do? A whole bunch of nothing - just vaporware.

Thanks for your very cogent explanation of why Canon sells more full frame cameras than Sony. :

Isn't it embarrassing when reality makes you look foolish?

Do they actually? I'd like to see the stats on that. Recently, Sony was reported to be #1 in FF in China.

 

[Mikehit]

Law of diminishing returns is non-sense, lenses can still be improved, cameras can add features that can improve over time like dual-pixel, or improved auto metering (or perhaps those same people get every exposure right?).

From that email I am not sure you understand what the laws of diminishing returns means....

 

[Quackator]

There is one thing the EF mount can't do today, and that's fit on a compact mirrorless ILC system.

You can fit a full frame sensor inside the body of a Rebel SL2,
once the mirror box has left the building.
And then the door is open for EF-S lenses with a shorter register
but full frame image circle. There is no need for a new mount.

The competition are going small for a reason.

And the A7 series is getting bigger with every iteration because they
found that this was a mistake.

I talk to many people who have switched from Canon and Nikon to Fuji,
Panasonic, Sony and (rarely) Canon EF-M because they want something
smaller and lighter.

You should also talk to those who now curse the tiny and unergonomic
user interfaces. And those who switched back.

If EF mount was so fantastic the EOS-M series would have been launched with EF-S mount.

No. The M-series was launched with exactly those in mind who
wanted small above anything else. It will cater for them for quite
some time to come, while the workhorses will retain tool size
ergonomics.

 

[jolyonralph]

And then the door is open for EF-S lenses with a shorter register
but full frame image circle. There is no need for a new mount.

I don't think this would give enough of a benefit for the design of new lenses to make it worthwhile not using standard EF lenses, except perhaps for a cheap kit lens.

You should also talk to those who now curse the tiny and unergonomic
user interfaces. And those who switched back.

There's a big difference between something that is unergonomic and something that you just aren't used to. If you've been using 5D series cameras for the last ten years your muscle memory is going to have a hard time adjusting to ANY new layout. I disliked the layout on the M5 initially (not as much as the M3, but the M5 I felt was still bad), but now, having used it for a while, I find myself perfectly at home with it. Same with the A7RII. Sure there are still some things I'd like changed, but there's no camera that has the perfect interface.

Larger cameras will always remain an option. But Canon already has some great large DSLR camera bodies, what they don't have right now is a compact FF camera. Give people choice.

 

[tmroper]

You don't annoy the owners of 140.000.000 lenses without any reason,
and especially not when your former hardest competitor is forced to do
exactly that. Canon sells around 10.000.000 lenses a year. They don't
need a new mount to make people buy new lenses.

We've already heard talk that the new camera will have a new mount but that EF compatibility will be handled in an ingenious way. The idea I suggested earlier was nothing more than just putting down in words what has already been suggested.

Canon won't upset existing EF lens owners, but they also don't want to be the only manufacturer tied to a 1980s lens mount moving forwards. At the risk of upsetting existing customers they risk becoming uncompetitive when it comes to new customers.

Arri is still tied to the 1980s PL mount, so Canon's not the only one "stuck" in the 1980s.

 

[ahsanford]

The only chance Canon has of penetrating that market is for the new full frame to accommodate EF lenses.

As we've said 5000 times here, EF glass will work on whatever Canon offers in FF mirrorless: we'll either get a full EF mount or we'll get a thinner mount that allows an adaptor.

And remember, with this new platform, going after Sony is Step #2. First, Canon will gobble up existing SLR and EOS M users. Canonites have been waiting for a first party FF mirrorless solution for their EF glass, so demand is high. Consider: Canon could literally will show up with a system that is 60-80% the spec of its A7 market peer and go from 0% to (IDK) 20-30% market share in the span of a couple years just by showing up and pulling current Canonites into the FF mirrorless universe -- they did the exact same thing with EOS M.

- A

 

[ahsanford]

Larger cameras will always remain an option. But Canon already has some great large DSLR camera bodies, what they don't have right now is a compact FF camera. Give people choice.

I fail to see why two different camps of the market (I want it small vs. I want it seamless) is a problem. Divide and conquer. Two different camps = at least two different bodies someday for Canon to build lines out of. Easy peasy.

So we'll get both, I believe, but I think the first go will be (effectively) a very small rig in the 6D2 / A7 III sort of space.

But a full EF mount mirrorless for working professionals may very well happen down the road.

- A