Bc if they just have a $3000 mirrorless 5D, I can't seeing that selling well. A 6Dm2 spec with 30.4 senor for $2000, i could see that selling well.
You're right. 30 x 6.5 + tilty-flippy + canon's best sensor for $2k would
sell well. But that's not going to happen, IMHO -- sorry.
The mirrorless and SLR market overlap in some places and are different in others. But if Canon prices things too aggressively to sell mirrorless, they will negatively impact their SLR sales. For instance, if Canon puts out what is loosely a 5D4 + tilty-flippy for $2k as your describe, I have little doubt that 5D4 sales @ $3,099 today will go down considerably.
It's far more likely Canon puts out one of these three sort of offerings in FF mirrorless:
- A fundamentally different value proposition that sits between existing FF SLR price points that is appropriately priced in between them
- A very similar-to-SLR spec'd* FF mirrorless for about the same price
- A very similar-to-SLR spec'd* FF mirrorless for a markup because FF mirrorless is new for Canon users
*Could be a time-adjusted slightly
better version than the 5D4 or 6D2 it is based on, but not dramatically better. If they did that, it would more resemble the first option and they'd just ask for more money.
No one knows the specs, of course, but I don't think Canon will give the good stuff away for less than they ask for in SLRs.