Canon will release an APS-C RF mount camera(s) later in 2022 [CR3]

David - Sydney

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The diffraction limited aperture of a 32 Mpx APS-C sensor is f/5.2. An f/7.1 is basically reducing it to the resolution of about a 20 Mpx APS-C sensor. I had a 90D, a great little camera with a 32 Mpx sensor, but it needed my 400mm f/4 to take advantage of it. On the 5DSR, which is about equivalent to a 20 Mpx APS-C sensor, the 400mm f/4 was hardly better than the 100-400mm II at f/5.6. But, on the 90D, it was much better. So, you would have to pay a lot for a lens and carry a lot more weight to make 32 Mpx APS-C more worthwhile in practice than a 20 Mpx sensor.
Don't let the truth get in the way of a key marketing spec sheet number... 32mp is always better than 20mp! /s
 
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wyotex43n

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The diffraction limited aperture of a 32 Mpx APS-C sensor is f/5.2. An f/7.1 is basically reducing it to the resolution of about a 20 Mpx APS-C sensor. I had a 90D, a great little camera with a 32 Mpx sensor, but it needed my 400mm f/4 to take advantage of it. On the 5DSR, which is about equivalent to a 20 Mpx APS-C sensor, the 400mm f/4 was hardly better than the 100-400mm II at f/5.6. But, on the 90D, it was much better. So, you would have to pay a lot for a lens and carry a lot more weight to make 32 Mpx APS-C more worthwhile in practice than a 20 Mpx sensor.
So Canon makes more money if you buy the 400 f4 or even better the 400 2.8 . My point is I think a lot of people who want this for birding just want the reach/megapixels on the bird or fur. Canon will use this to make the most money.
If Canon could make an 80 Mpixel 20 fps ff camera that would work for them also but it would probably cost more. There are other tradeoff like you mention but I think this is what drives the" WE Want A R7 "comments. Its been my experience that logic and facts do not drive buying decisions as much as we think.
FYi I shoot with my R5 and the EF 100-400 and sometimes with the 1.4 adapter. Even with the 1.4 on I think the results are better than I got with my 7dmk2 with the same lens. The keeper rate is way higher.
 
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neuroanatomist

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You have made this assertion many times and it seems logical but I don't think that anyone would disagree that Canon was late to the FF mirrorless party and even then the R was clearly using the 5Div spare parts inventory.

The R5/R6 were clearly built from the ground up (R6 with 1DXiii sensor) and are now very competitive but were released 7 years after the Sony a7/a7r and still 2-3 years after Sony's 3rd generation a7 bodies.
A decade ago, the all-knowing interwebs made it clear that Canon was late to the APS-C mirrorless party, and that the original M was a lackluster entry that was barely a glorified PowerShot with a detachable lens. That story ended with Canon leading the APS-C MILC market after~5 years. I wonder where the FF MILC story will end up?

Sony started the FF MILC market just after Canon entered the APS-C MILC market that Sony had been leading. That was not a coincidence. The problem for Sony is that they’ve nowhere left to run. #vaio

Sony's current market share (in my opinion) was built mostly from Canon users as they were able to adapt their EF lenses even if the adapters weren't perfect. Canon still remains the market share leader but I wonder what share it could have had with some competitive ff mirrorless models years earlier.
The numbers for the past few years show that most of Sony’s gains were at Nikon’s expense (as were Canon’s gains).
 

David - Sydney

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A decade ago, the all-knowing interwebs made it clear that Canon was late to the APS-C mirrorless party, and that the original M was a lackluster entry that was barely a glorified PowerShot with a detachable lens. That story ended with Canon leading the APS-C MILC market after~5 years. I wonder where the FF MILC story will end up?
The EF-m mount was an excellent call for Canon and I assume is a cash cow for them now but I was referring to the ff mirrorless market

Sony started the FF MILC market just after Canon entered the APS-C MILC market that Sony had been leading. That was not a coincidence. The problem for Sony is that they’ve nowhere left to run. #vaio
The numbers for the past few years show that most of Sony’s gains were at Nikon’s expense (as were Canon’s gains).
The gross numbers/market share does show this but Sony's ff mirrorless sales (and now installed base) came from somewhere. My assertion is based on Sony's ability to use adapted EF lenses (and personal experience of professional landscape togs that subsequently became Sony ambassadors) is that they moved mostly from Canon.
Canon (and Nikon) left the ff mirrorless segment to Sony for many years. Canon (and Nikon) watched for a long time and didn't appear to be concerned.... until it became suddenly important enough to release the R based on existing parts.

Those that moved now have significant Sony glass and are less likely to move and supported by a vocal bunch of advocates.
I don't have any specific knowledge about why Nikon now has smaller sales - in an increasingly smaller market.
I agree that Sony now has broken the Canon/Nikon duopoly and that they are all competing more-or-less equally in the same market segments now.
 
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Dragon

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I think the situation has changed one helluva lot because of the introduction of excellent narrow aperture lenses. As you say, a 40-45 Mpx sensor requires the quality lenses to go with it. Basically, they need to be f/4 or wider to take advantage of those small pixels. The 45 Mpx of the R5 become rather wasted for apertures narrower than f/7.1.
Yes, and I was referring to a 45MP APS-c sensor, which would be equivalent to a 115 MP FF sensor. That would put the pixel pitch at around 2.7 microns and the DLA just a bit over f/4, which pretty much limits long shots to Big Whites if you want to get the most out of the sensor. OTOH, the Nikon P1000 is f/8 at the long end (540mm) and has a pixel pitch of 1.3 microns. It takes remarkably good pictures considering the limitations. I find that sharpening the long reach P1000 shots works best with a radius around 2, so effectively about half the linear resolution of the sensor. As you noted the other day, more pixels never hurt, but there is a law of diminishing returns. Dense sensors also highlight the weak spots in just about any lens. It will be interesting to see if Canon does an R body follow-on to the 5DS(r) and if so, just how high they will push the resolution. Considering the P1000 has a 125x zoom (closer to 140x if you use DXO PL to process the wide shots), that is one amazing piece of glass. The VC and the AF are a little spotty at the long end, but if you nail focus and catch the VC in the right mood, the results are stunning. I usually shoot in 3 or 4 shot bursts and it seems for one or two the VC will be in range. If there is enough light, the P1000 is the closest thing I have to the 800L with a 2x TC strapped to a 90D and that is saying something for camera that cost me well under $1k. It is also very portable. The red shouldered hawk below is a 100% crop at 324mm f/7.1 (1800mm FF equiv.). The Sparrow (also a 100% crop) was at full reach of 539mm f/8 (3000mm FF equiv.). Some careful processing is required, but the results can be quite good. The bokeh isn't great, but then neither is the 800L all that fantastic in the bokeh department.  DSCN0727-Edit-Edit.jpg DSCN0467-Edit-2.jpg
 
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neuroanatomist

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The EF-m mount was an excellent call for Canon and I assume is a cash cow for them now but I was referring to the ff mirrorless market
My point was that the statements you made about Canon’s entry into the FF MILC market are near-perfect echoes of common forum posts during the Canon’s entry into the APS-C MILC market. With no judgement on the validity of those statements at the time, the fact is that 5-6 years later Canon was leading that market segment.

They’ve only been in the FF MILC game for 3.5 years.


The gross numbers/market share does show this but Sony's ff mirrorless sales (and now installed base) came from somewhere.
Indeed. In early 2018, Canon’s share of the FF MILC market was zero. It’s grown a lot since then…from where? Sony.
 
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neuroanatomist

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I think Canon will just ditch EF-M
Of the 10 best-selling camera kits in Japan, 6 are from Canon and 3 of those are EOS M series, and the other 3 are DSLRs.

In this thread, we have people claiming that Canon is going to abandon DSLRs and the EOS M line. Either Canon is out of touch with reality, or the people making those claims are. I know where I’m placing my bet.
 
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BBarn

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An RF mount APS-C mirrorless makes sense for birders, but little else. Existing mirrorless APS-C cameras sell for only a little less than their FF counterparts, and aren't much smaller or lighter when using mounts common to FF.

Catering to the birders is fine, but there exists very little advantage to APS-C in terms of size or weight when utilizing a FF mount. After having and using an RP for the last year, I wouldn't consider going back to an APS-C. Cost and weight savings would be minimal, and it would represent a step back for most uses. Saddle an APS-C camera with a FF mount and you sacrifice most of the potential advantages of a camera with the smaller sensor.
 
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David - Sydney

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Indeed. In early 2018, Canon’s share of the FF MILC market was zero. It’s grown a lot since then…from where? Sony.
Clearly I was meaning that the migration was from Canon FF DLSR.
Sony's FF DLSR volume was insignificant with their a77/a77ii but they did have a market peak around 13% for DLSRs (mostly APS) with their Minolta acquisition and development back in 2008.
I don't have the figures but the total FF mirrorless market volumes have increased since Canon/Nikon entered the market and DLSR users within their ecosystems migrated over time (like me and you). To infer that all Canon's ff mirrorless sales are at the expense of Sony would be silly. Sony's % market share has dropped appropriately in the ff mirrorless segment. I believe that the rate of migration from Canon/Nikon to Sony has now decreased dramatically but not to zero. Sony still has a unique flagship product A1 in a small form factor whereas R3/Z9 are full sized (if smaller than 1D/D6).

My original point was that Canon was slow to enter the FF mirrorless market. They had all the market data and perhaps could have slowed the migration to Sony over many years. No company has perfect forecasting ability even with the data at hand.

In hindsight (and this is all about hindsight), if Canon and Nikon followed Sony's lead to introduce competitors in the FF mirrorless market - even a year behind - then would Sony have been able to invest in continued R&D to get to where they are now ie #2 behind a once formidable Nikon?
 
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sanj

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There is a huge market for an R7…

I know so many people who are holding out for one.

Thats why Canon will release an apa-c RF mount canera.
Most certainly. Time will show. And if there was not one, Canon would not make this camera. Do not let people doubt you.
 
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takesome1

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None your business Alaska
My original point was that Canon was slow to enter the FF mirrorless market. They had all the market data and perhaps could have slowed the migration to Sony over many years. No company has perfect forecasting ability even with the data at hand.

In hindsight (and this is all about hindsight), if Canon and Nikon followed Sony's lead to introduce competitors in the FF mirrorless market - even a year behind - then would Sony have been able to invest in continued R&D to get to where they are now ie #2 behind a once formidable Nikon?
Sony spent 4.9 billion on R&D last year, Canon spent 2.6 billion.
Sony's market cap is 153 billion.
Canons market cap is 29 billion.
Do you really think that Canon entering the mirrorless market sooner could slow Sony's R&D?
It could have had the opposite effect, if you are trying to take over a market you do not spend less when someone else gets in the arena. You have to spend to win.
 

neuroanatomist

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Most certainly. Time will show. And if there was not one, Canon would not make this camera. Do not let people doubt you.
Of course…no one should be deterred by a lack of data to support their opinion. :rolleyes:
 

David - Sydney

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Sony spent 4.9 billion on R&D last year, Canon spent 2.6 billion.
Sony's market cap is 153 billion.
Canons market cap is 29 billion.
Do you really think that Canon entering the mirrorless market sooner could slow Sony's R&D?
It could have had the opposite effect, if you are trying to take over a market you do not spend less when someone else gets in the arena. You have to spend to win.
Canon is predominately a imaging company including medical, scanning and printing. Cameras and lenses are core businesses for Canon but only represent ~12% of revenue as per John's analysis.

Sony is one of the most comprehensive media companies
- the largest video game console company
- the largest video game publisher
- one of the largest music companies (largest music publisher & second largest record label)
- third largest film studio
- the largest player in the premium TV market for a television of at least 55 inches (>$2,500)
- the second largest TV brand by market share
- the third largest television manufacturer in the world by annual sales figures.

Further down the list... Sony has
- 55% market share in the image sensor market and is the largest manufacturer of image sensors
- the second largest camera manufacturer
Takesome1 provided that ~12% of revenue from both these segments which would be ~ the same as canon's cameras.

Sony has probably been able to share R&D costs from their image sensor division and probably also image processing (sharing engineering between Playstation and Bionz).
Sony made a play for the camera market by buying Minolta and have built it up from there.

IF a big company tries to enter a market segment and has limited success over time whilst bleeding R&D and marketing dollars that they could use elsewhere then they will sell the business unit off to the highest bidder. The corporate world is littered with examples. For instance, I expect Sony to sell or close down their mobile phone manufacturing soon. Betamax and the many Sony proprietary memory/recording formats have died a slow death.
Sony would likely retain the image sensor business even if they sold their camera business due to their market strength (and I assume profitability)
 
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Otara

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I dont know whats coming, but a 90D equivalent would be of interest to me. I expect something in that area as a starting point, where its good for video and stills without stealing higher end R thunder too much.

I mean a 7D equivalent would be possibly great, but I suspect thats hoping for too much, I think we were probably lucky to even get the 7D2.
 

tapanit

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I doubt possible but if it is a RF Mount EF-M style camera, would be cool if you could still somehow use EF-M lenses with it.
A generic EF-M -> RF adapter would only be possible with optical elements that'd make it heavy and expensive and reduce optical quality, as well as changing the focal length (or, theoretically, losing infinity focus). Not likely to happen. Perhaps a 3rd party will make one, but don't expect miracles from the quality.

If, however, Canon were to design a new body with that in mind, they could make it work by making the sensor move outwards when the adapter is used. That would be the perfect solution for EF-M lens owners. It would, however, be a pretty complex design with fragile moving parts. Even less likely than the above.

A third possibility would be a design where the mount is removable, i.e., you could put in either RF or M mount as needed. In effect it'd be a meta-mount for mounting different mounts. Technically it should be possible, but the likelyhood of Canon doing that is far in the fantasy land.

The fourth hope is that my imagination is lacking and Canon pulls a rabbit out of their hat and makes it happen in some way I can't think of. :)
 
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TravelerNick

EOS 90D
Dec 4, 2020
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Can someone please explain why Canon would replace the EOS M line with a low-cost APS-C EOS R?

After that, explain why Toyota decided to replace the Corolla (the world's best-selling car) with a low-cost Camry. Oh wait, Toyota isn't foolish enough to do that.

If you want to use the Toyota analogy look at how they've moved hybrid down the range. It makes more sense to concentrate your R&D in one direction than to spread it out .

The better question is does a crop sensor bring anything over a cheap FF camera?
 

TravelerNick

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Dec 4, 2020
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Consider that 1) over 40% of the ILCs produced this year were DSLRs, 2) Canon and Nikon are the only major manufacturers making DSLRs, and 3) Canon has a much larger market share than Nikon. That means Canon dominates the DSLR market segment without strong competition – generally a desirable place for a company to be. What’s the incentive for Canon to try and shift that segment to one where there’s lots of competition?

Locally I can't think of one major electronics shop with a single camera on display. I don't mean a DSLR I mean ANYTHING that isn't a smartphone.

The only place you can get a DSLR is a dedicated camera shop or online. Most of those are pro level shops. The consumer shops have mostly died.

That doesn't sound like a desirable large market.
 
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