Lee Jay said:
keithcooper said:
Solid rumours I'd put any money on come along very rarely. I personally discount almost anything that's more than 4 months out from an announcement.
I still can't fathom why the camera makers are so secretive, when companies like Intel and Microsoft provide roadmaps into future announcements.
Because these are two very different industries when you look at their markets;
Intel (especially)
The regular customer doesn't buy much direct from them. Have you ever bought just a CPU or SSD directly from Intel? (you might have, I don't think I'm much mistaken when I say that a very minor minority do..) Compare that with the companies that Intel sell their stuff to: HP, Dell, Apple, IBM, Lenovo, etc.etc.. they design and build solution around the "raw materials" that Intel provide. Your laptop; a small number of parts are from Intel, the integration of all the components is done by makers of motherboards, software etc. etc.
Low margins, but MASSIVE volume is their game.
Microsoft, much the same; their software enables design possibilities for HW and SW makers. (it is only recently that Microsoft moved into the HW space, for various reasons (such as providing a blueprint/best practice implementation, larger control of end product (like apple) etc. etc.
The products that Intel and Microsoft define in their road maps are coming years down the line, when the products are ready they need all their partners to have finished solutions in place to act as a market for them.
Compare these models, where the companies you mention are producers of raw materials. (abstracted to the essential IMHO) to Canon or Nikon; they integrate technology acquired either inhouse or from third parties (memory, ARM cores, materials etc.etc.) and sell an end-user ready product.
Canon and Nikon also have such large product bases where they cover almost everything; from camera bodies, lenses, flashes etc. and they provide this to the end user in a readily integrated and assembled form.
They don't necessarily need to publish a road map, for them I would believe it to be a competitive disadvantage; you have less of a chance to surprise the market and upend your competitors. And I'm sure too that from a financial point of view if you don't deliver on your road map then investors and markets will punish you.
Canon/Nikon do not need to provide a road map, like smaller vendors, they don't need to convince the market that they have a plan and are in it for the long run. They do not need to convince potential customers in order to create a market; they already have one. (And yes there are various angles that could be debated here; for instance a road map for EOS-M, IMHO that could possibly be nice, because the system might need a clear direction to get most people to come on board and make an investment apart from the body and kit lens (though that might not be desired target demographic for them..))
If Canon/Nikon published a road map for bodies, features, lenses that would be helping their competitors who could upend the road map by providing better/cheaper/more attractive features than the stated road map. So far Canon and Nikon's competitors are playing catch-up to the big two. But in order to do that they need to provide system road maps that says that we will provide you with the tools you need in the future. Were there a road map from Sony saying: "we'll introduce full-frame mirrorless cameras in tiny tiny bodies soon?" I don't think so, but once there they needed to provide assurance that there is a plan for creating a viable set of tools.
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