It looks like Nikon is targeting the Canon EOS R5 with the upcoming Nikon Z 8

[mimbu]

Thank you me lord....

You may be right on the broad stats. The d850 was the best all around dslr, that is pretty much an acknowledged fact. The z8 goes way beyond the r5, that will become a fact in about a week. Some people will move from Canon and Sony to nikon. Whether it changes market share at that end of the market remains to be seen.

Z8 is unlikely to make very many people jump from Canon or Sony mirrorless to Nikon, unless they were already very much on the fence. The only thing new about the Z8 is the price, and it comes at the cost of a plastic body and a much smaller battery. Everything else about it (the good stuff and the bad) is already ~18 months old as it is just a copy/paste from the Z9.

Also, the Z8 is not a competitor to the R5. It is a competitor to the R3, and to the A9ii on the Sony side of things. Both companies now need to step up with more equal competitors in the #2 spot of their lineups. (And Canon needs to hurry up and release an actual flagship!)

 

[neuroanatomist]

The R3 is Canon's competitor to the Z8. The R3ii, if Canon ever releases one, should be a more equally spec'd competitor.

There is not a one to one correspondence between models up and down each manufacturer’s line.

The most reasonable way to view the Z8 is as the successor to the D850. Historically, that line competes with Canon’s 5-series. Given that, comparing the Z8 with the R5 is the most logical pairing.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Z8 is unlikely to make very many people jump from Canon or Sony mirrorless to Nikon, unless they were already very much on the fence.

In general, people don’t jump from one brand to another. Period.

Also, the Z8 is not a competitor to the R5. It is a competitor to the R3, and to the A9ii on the Sony side of things. Both companies now need to step up with more equal competitors in the #2 spot of their lineups. (And Canon needs to hurry up and release an actual flagship!)

You were on the right track, then you veered off and fell into the trap that many people on this forum fall into. Switching brands is not as common as people on this forum seem to think. The market share numbers show that quite clearly, change happens, but it’s slow. More importantly, it typically occurs in a vacuum i.e. when one brand does not have anything to offer in a given space. That’s where Sony’s full frame mirrorless share came from – Canon and Nikon shooters wanting to move to mirrorless when Sony was the only game in town.

Nikon has hemorrhaged market share in the past few years, but the market share numbers represent current year sales. The point of the Z8 is not to entice Canon or Sony users to switch (well, perhaps they’re hoping to gain some users back from Sony). The main point is to entice Nikon DSLR owners to switch to mirrorless.

Likewise, Canon doesn’t need to hurry and release an R1. Most buyers of the R1 will be owners of the 1D X II and 1D X III. They’ll likely release the R1 next year, on schedule for the 4-year cycle of the 1D X series.

 

[mimbu]

In general, people don’t jump from one brand to another. Period.

It's more common than you think. I've had Canon, Nikon, and now Sony as my main kit over the years. On the side I have also owned Minolta, Pentax, Contax N, Contax 645, and some Hasselblad stuff. Oh, and I had some Olympus mirrorless kit for a while, too. I like to try different things.

You were on the right track, then you veered off and fell into the trap that many people on this forum fall into.

You misunderstood my comment. I'm not saying people are going to immediately jump from the R3 or A9ii to the Z8. I'm simply saying those are the cameras that compete with the Z8 in today's market. They are the tier 2 cameras from each maker. Right now the Z8 is better spec'd overall than either of the other two #2 cameras, and that behooves Canon and Sony to release something better.

More importantly, it typically occurs in a vacuum i.e. when one brand does not have anything to offer in a given space. That’s where Sony’s full frame mirrorless share came from – Canon and Nikon shooters wanting to move to mirrorless when Sony was the only game in town.

Yes, Sony had a unique opportunity and they made the best of it. I moved to Sony from Nikon for that reason. The Z6 and Z7 (not the later ii versions) both sucked and had serious limitations that I was not willing to accept. I also wasn't willing to wait any longer as I wanted to shoot more video. Buying another DSLR seemed like a really bad idea. So, Sony it was.

The main point is to entice Nikon DSLR owners to switch to mirrorless.

No disagreement there.

Likewise, Canon doesn’t need to hurry and release an R1. Most buyers of the R1 will be owners of the 1D X II and 1D X III. They’ll likely release the R1 next year, on schedule for the 4-year cycle of the 1D X series.

I expect they will release the R1 next year but it's embarrassingly late. The A1ii is also likely to be released next year and the Z9ii won't be far behind.

 

[mimbu]

There is not a one to one correspondence between models up and down each manufacturer’s line.

The most reasonable way to view the Z8 is as the successor to the D850. Historically, that line competes with Canon’s 5-series. Given that, comparing the Z8 with the R5 is the most logical pairing.

While many Nikon users are calling the Z8 a replacement for the D850, I don't see it that way at all. The Z8 is so far beyond what the D850 offered it is in a totally different league and a completely different type of camera. There is no direct replacement in the Nikon lineup for the D850 but the closest camera is the Z7ii which shares the same sensor, has overall similar specs, and falls in the same price class. Likewise the Z7ii is what is closest to the R5. I expect the eventual Z7iii to be a much closer competitor in specs to the R5 (or R5ii), the Z7ii is still very much an upgraded Z7 rather than a replacement.

Currently the R5 is a considerably better camera than the Z7ii. In turn, the Z8 is overall a much better camera than the R3. Nikon is also undercutting Canon (and Sony!) on price significantly.

 

[neuroanatomist]

It's more common than you think. I've had Canon, Nikon, and now Sony as my main kit over the years. On the side I have also owned Minolta, Pentax, Contax N, Contax 645, and some Hasselblad stuff. Oh, and I had some Olympus mirrorless kit for a while, too. I like to try different things.

The fact that you personally have switched around doesn’t make it common. That’s another, even bigger trap the people on this forum fall into – they believe their own desires and choices represent those of the majority, when that’s rarely the case.

Market share changes slowly, installed base even more so. Most changes occur at the entry level, once you’re talking about full frame systems users are generally meaningfully invested in lenses, flashes, etc., and the inertia and more importantly, the cost to switch systems is very high.

You misunderstood my comment. I'm not saying people are going to immediately jump from the R3 or A9ii to the Z8. I'm simply saying those are the cameras that compete with the Z8 in today's market. They are the tier 2 cameras from each maker. Right now the Z8 is better spec'd overall than either of the other two #2 cameras, and that behooves Canon and Sony to release something better.

I understood, I just disagree. People on gearhead forums like this one like to compare cameras across brands. Some review sites mention comparisons to other brands, usually tangentially (DPR is/was an exception, but unlike most reviewers that earn money based on affiliate link sales or hawking LR plug-ins, DPR is owned by a major retailer, and manufacturers terms with retailers aren’t equal).

But most actual buyers of higher-end cameras have a bag full of lenses from Canon, Nikon or Sony. Most are not looking at the current models from each manufacturer and seriously considering which to buy. They’re mainly looking at the current offerings from the badge on their lenses and comparing that to the camera they have, deciding if now is the time to upgrade.

There are far, far more owners of Nikon D6xx, 7xx and 8xx bodies looking at the Z8 right now than owners of Canon or Sony bodies seriously considering switching systems.

I expect they will release the R1 next year but it's embarrassingly late. The A1ii is also likely to be released next year and the Z9ii won't be far behind.

Likewise, Canon’s main market for the R1 are current 1-series DSLR owners, secondarily owners of 5-series DSLRs and MILCs, then people who upgraded from one of those to an R3. At that level, owners of other brands are far enough down the list they have no meaningful impact on design priorities or timelines.

 

[AlanF]

There are far, far more owners of Nikon D6xx, 7xx and 8xx bodies looking at the Z8 right now than owners of Canon or Sony bodies seriously considering switching systems.

The general advice from Nikon Z7 and Z7II owners to those seriously interested in BIF and similar action was to stick with the D500 and D850 as they outperformed the Z7 and II in those areas. The D850 crowd can now upgrade confidently although the D850 is such a good camera that it is far less compelling for them to upgrade than for us from the 5DIV to R5.

 

[GoldWing]

Nikon is really turning up the heat on Canon. I know it's a broken record but Nikon is going to let Canon put the R1 out and then push their own 85-100MP camera out to compete with the R1. Crazy race..... But a reliable source at a major retailer that supplies agencies has stated this twice.

 

[neuroanatomist]

I know it's a broken record

and yet you keep playing it.