Hello all,
I was having a good think out on the deck and contemplating cameras and came up with a theory, well more of a hypothesis, as to why we may not see Sony release an A9s or A9r. And here's my thinking:
First, if Sony intends to maintain the A7 series, then an A9r and A9s would have to sit above the A7r and A7s lines. Along with the A7 line, this would mean Sony would have six full frame cameras on the market. While I applaud Sony for what it's doing, I don't know if the market can support six Sony full frame cameras all at once. The problem with this reason is that Sony already does support six full frame cameras since the original A7, A7r, and A7s can still be obtained brand new. That said, there are clear differences between the Mk I and Mk II series. This brings me to my second point.
Second, differentiation. How would Sony differentiate the A9 series from the A7 series? If the primary differences between the A7r/A9r and the A7s/A9s are the bigger battery and the dual card slots, then that doesn't give the A7 series much room to grow. It means that the improvements to the A7 series would be largely limited to the autofocus and the sensor. Again, that doesn't leave much room to grow. If the A9 autofocus system makes its way into the A7III, then presumably it will also be found in the A7rIII and A7sIII. At which point, you're kind of reaching something of a ceiling for autofocus improvements that will make a huge differences to the shooting experience. Add a dual-pixel autofocus system like Canon has, improve the hit-rate and tracking, and there's not much else you can do that'll make potential buyers go "wow" in terms of auotofocus. The sensor is also an issue, particularly for the A7r line. If the A9r has a 50+ mp sensor, where does that leave the A7rIII? Is the A7rIII just going to be an A9r with the smaller battery and no dual card slots? I don't know if that would make sense.
Perhaps the best example of this differentiation problem would be in the A7s line and the A9s. Aside from dual card slots and a bigger battery, the A7sII doesn't have much more you can improve upon. Autofocus is the only thing I can really think of, and that can only be improved so much before you start hitting that ceiling where the improved autofocus is already so good that improvements won't "wow" buyers. From a hardware perspective, a bigger battery and dual card slots are really the only place left for the A7sII to go before you're just incrementally improving the sensor. I don't really see how an A9s can exist alongside an A7sIII.
The way I see it, there are two routes Sony can take.
1) Have the A9 as the typical flagship camera most notable for its speed, similar to how Canon and Nikon both use the 1D designation and Dx designation for the flagships. Then have the A7 series not so much sit below the A9 but along side it with the A7r line as the resolution beast and the A7s line as the low light beast. This would be like how I see the 5DmkIV and D810 as not so much sitting below the 1DxmkII and the D5 respectively but rather along side them as the higher resolution and more well rounded cameras. The A7III would then be more akin to the 6DmkII and D610 as the more affordable option. In many ways, the existing line up already does this as indicated by the price differences between the various A7 cameras; the A7rII clearly sits above the A7II in terms of capability and price point.
2) Drop the A7r and A7s lines and replace them with an A9r and A9s featuring the bigger battery and dual card slots. That would leave the A7II, A7III, etc by itself as, again, the more affordable full frame option as a somewhat dumbed down version of the A9.
But any way you slice it, I don't think having an A7III, A7rIII, A7sIII, A9, A9r, and A9s makes any sense. Not only do I think the market can't support that many series, but I think it would be tough trying to make each of the A7 cameras sufficiently different from their A9 counterparts to justify both lines.
Anyway, just a hypothesis. We'll have to wait and see. I could very well be wrong. After all, I am used to Canon's way of doing things and their mindset, so it could be that my Canon-washed brain just can't see things from a non-Canon perspective.
I was having a good think out on the deck and contemplating cameras and came up with a theory, well more of a hypothesis, as to why we may not see Sony release an A9s or A9r. And here's my thinking:
First, if Sony intends to maintain the A7 series, then an A9r and A9s would have to sit above the A7r and A7s lines. Along with the A7 line, this would mean Sony would have six full frame cameras on the market. While I applaud Sony for what it's doing, I don't know if the market can support six Sony full frame cameras all at once. The problem with this reason is that Sony already does support six full frame cameras since the original A7, A7r, and A7s can still be obtained brand new. That said, there are clear differences between the Mk I and Mk II series. This brings me to my second point.
Second, differentiation. How would Sony differentiate the A9 series from the A7 series? If the primary differences between the A7r/A9r and the A7s/A9s are the bigger battery and the dual card slots, then that doesn't give the A7 series much room to grow. It means that the improvements to the A7 series would be largely limited to the autofocus and the sensor. Again, that doesn't leave much room to grow. If the A9 autofocus system makes its way into the A7III, then presumably it will also be found in the A7rIII and A7sIII. At which point, you're kind of reaching something of a ceiling for autofocus improvements that will make a huge differences to the shooting experience. Add a dual-pixel autofocus system like Canon has, improve the hit-rate and tracking, and there's not much else you can do that'll make potential buyers go "wow" in terms of auotofocus. The sensor is also an issue, particularly for the A7r line. If the A9r has a 50+ mp sensor, where does that leave the A7rIII? Is the A7rIII just going to be an A9r with the smaller battery and no dual card slots? I don't know if that would make sense.
Perhaps the best example of this differentiation problem would be in the A7s line and the A9s. Aside from dual card slots and a bigger battery, the A7sII doesn't have much more you can improve upon. Autofocus is the only thing I can really think of, and that can only be improved so much before you start hitting that ceiling where the improved autofocus is already so good that improvements won't "wow" buyers. From a hardware perspective, a bigger battery and dual card slots are really the only place left for the A7sII to go before you're just incrementally improving the sensor. I don't really see how an A9s can exist alongside an A7sIII.
The way I see it, there are two routes Sony can take.
1) Have the A9 as the typical flagship camera most notable for its speed, similar to how Canon and Nikon both use the 1D designation and Dx designation for the flagships. Then have the A7 series not so much sit below the A9 but along side it with the A7r line as the resolution beast and the A7s line as the low light beast. This would be like how I see the 5DmkIV and D810 as not so much sitting below the 1DxmkII and the D5 respectively but rather along side them as the higher resolution and more well rounded cameras. The A7III would then be more akin to the 6DmkII and D610 as the more affordable option. In many ways, the existing line up already does this as indicated by the price differences between the various A7 cameras; the A7rII clearly sits above the A7II in terms of capability and price point.
2) Drop the A7r and A7s lines and replace them with an A9r and A9s featuring the bigger battery and dual card slots. That would leave the A7II, A7III, etc by itself as, again, the more affordable full frame option as a somewhat dumbed down version of the A9.
But any way you slice it, I don't think having an A7III, A7rIII, A7sIII, A9, A9r, and A9s makes any sense. Not only do I think the market can't support that many series, but I think it would be tough trying to make each of the A7 cameras sufficiently different from their A9 counterparts to justify both lines.
Anyway, just a hypothesis. We'll have to wait and see. I could very well be wrong. After all, I am used to Canon's way of doing things and their mindset, so it could be that my Canon-washed brain just can't see things from a non-Canon perspective.
