What's Next?

[unfocused]

Canon can do a $2000 FF DSLR if they want to. Just look at the price of 7D. The difference in FF sensor and APS-C is about $200.

That's the first time I've seen that figure. Can you document it?

 

[x-vision]

I also expect that the 5D successor will have a different, higher mp sensor. It seems as though the sensor is the real differentiating factor in the 1DX and I don't see Canon devaluing the line by using the sensor in other bodies – at least not in the near term.

My thinking exactly.

They may end up splitting the 7D into two lines, an enthusiast model and a pro model for sports and wildlife photographers who want the extra reach they are losing with the end of the APS-H sensor.

Canon already split the former xxD line into the 7D and the 60D. Will they further split the 7D?
It seems to me that the 60D successor will need to be "re-imagined" again to be more competitive.
Can't tell how this will affect the 7DII.

Contrary to what many on this forum wish for, I don't think we will see an under $2,000 full frame model. I'm not even sure it's possible to produce a full frame body at that price point.

Agree again. That would only devalue FF as a premium offering.
The 5DII is "affordable" enough already and I'm hoping that the 5DIII will stay at the same price point.

 

[Doodah]

I thought that the 200-400 1.4X was a reality?

Yes, I am confused too. It's a lens that was announced some time ago, just that the release date is delayed (much like what happened with the 8-15 fisheye).

What I want to see: 24-70 f/2.8L with better optics and 14-24 f/2.8L

What I personally wish to have: FF with pentamirror or mirrorless. Just want to have a cheap, low weight Rebel type FF camera. That's just me.

 

[Cetalis]

Don't wanna be too pessimistic, but a high res FF probably isn't happening for a while, if any at all; the 1DX is their flagship and their marketing constantly tells us that the lower MP is better. I highly doubt they'd contradict themselves that fast. Also, maintaining the infrastructure to make different sensors seems to be quite a pain if they insist on having 4 APS-Cs use the same sensor. My guess is that the 5Dmk3 will borrow the 1DX sensor and come out after the sensor production stabilizes, and late enough to not cannibalize 1DX sales.

The 7Dmk2 is also overdue and so far they've thrown out a new xxxD every year, and the current APS-C lineup doesnt match their new low MP strategy; this will drive their marketing department crazy. I'd expect a new APS-C coming out before any other FF so they don't cut out of each others' sales, while making it seem like they're refreshing everything.

I'm guessing that new lenses will be coming out first since they just announced a camera, but it's just a guess.

 

[Meh]

I thought that the 200-400 1.4X was a reality?

Yes, I am confused too. It's a lens that was announced some time ago, just that the release date is delayed (much like what happened with the 8-15 fisheye).

What I want to see: 24-70 f/2.8L with better optics and 14-24 f/2.8L

What I personally wish to have: FF with pentamirror or mirrorless. Just want to have a cheap, low weight Rebel type FF camera. That's just me.

I believe the 200-400 was announced to be "in development" and as yet not an officially announced product.

 

[Rocky]

Canon can do a $2000 FF DSLR if they want to. Just look at the price of 7D. The difference in FF sensor and APS-C is about $200.

That's the first time I've seen that figure. Can you document it?

I read couple articles in the web. I was trying to find it for you. Unfortunately, I cannot find them. I am going to explain why I agree with their number based on my knowlege from wafer fab and cost of CMOS wafer. For 8 in wafer, the cost of a processed wafer is about $1000, throw in the micro lenses and AA fiter for extra $300 (my guestimate) So each wafer is $1300. My estimate is that there may be only 75 sites for the 8 inch wafer for APS-C sensor. Let us assume the yield for APS-C is 75 %, then we will have 56 sensor per wafer, $1300 per wafer, that will be $23 per sensor. There are 24 FF sensor site for 8 in wafer. Assuming the yield for FF is 25% (1/3 of the yield of APS-C, being pressimistic ). then each wafer will yield 6 FF sensor. that will be $210 per sensor.
So the difference between FF and APS-C is $193. I said about $200 is just a rough number in case my guestimate on the micro lens and AA filter is wrong. IF Canon have moved the sensor production to 12 in (300mm) wafer, the difference is even smaller. However, Canon white paper mention that there are 200 site of APS-C sensor in a 8 in wafer. That is totally wrong. Anybody can prove it by drawing it out on a peice of paper.

 

[scokar]

Canon can do a $2000 FF DSLR if they want to
[....]

Canon is already SELLING a sub-$2000 FF DSLR. The 5D Mark II is available NEW for CAD$1999:

http://www.photoprice.ca/product/02699/Canon-EOS-5D-Mark-II-price.html


Future Shop sold a few @ 1850, I do not recall the details, check red flag deals forums for scanned invoices.

 

[adhocphotographer]

The 7Dmk2 is also overdue and so far they've thrown out a new xxxD every year, and the current APS-C lineup doesnt match their new low MP strategy; this will drive their marketing department crazy. I'd expect a new APS-C coming out before any other FF so they don't cut out of each others' sales, while making it seem like they're refreshing everything.

I agree... with all the cropped bodies having the same sensor, it seems crazy to me for them to announce a xxxD (as seems to be the annual trend, although that might change), before a 70D or 7Dmkii. I would guess a lot of new bodies to stabalise the whole lineup in the next 12-18 months!

 

[Woody]

I feel it is conceivable for Canon to announce an xxxD body before the 70D and 7D2. For certain technologies, Canon is sometimes willing to implement them in a lower end body first: e.g., electronic axis in 7D/60D, transmissive LCD in 7D viewfinder, Digic V in compact cameras etc.

But we'll know in a few months time. Can't wait... this is an exciting time in Canon... wonder how Canon will respond (if they bother) to mirrorless cameras...

 

[necator]

Why should the 7D be overdue?
The xD-Lines normally have a updatecycle of about 3 years.
The 7D is out --- hmm, about 2 years? So, my wild guess would be: wait at least one more year.

Yes, the lower lines will overtake the 7D sensor-wise. But that happens all the time. The xxD line is constantly overtaken by the xxxD line, still the useability of the xxD line is better than that of the xxxD.

 

[Isaac]

I don't think the 5D3 will be split into two different models.

Splitting it up increases the risk of both models where consumers may not be satisfied with both and even if they are satisfied with one of the models, there can be a big loss financially on the second if it doesn't satisfy the market. It also creates confusion in market, which model would be suitable. Eg. Someone who primarily wants photo use but also needs good video usage, which one would they buy if the 5D series is split up.

Canon make their money on a model that repeatedly gets purchased time and time again over its life span. Eg. 5D2 has been one of the best selling cameras of all time. Canon have had this camera on the production line time and time again.

I think Canon should make their necessary changes such as MP increase, ST-E2 transmitter, AF focus points, Digic 5+, 3.2" clear view II screen, increased weather sealing etc.

With these changes, the 5D3 will sell itself.

 

[canonononon]

hey all, new to the forum. wrong place for intros but hello!

i am pretty sure that there is going to be a 5d or 3d announced pretty soon.

might not be one of those exactly but i would be very, very surprised it if was not an EOS camera

either way will be interesting!!

 

[moreorless]

I don't think the 5D3 will be split into two different models.

Splitting it up increases the risk of both models where consumers may not be satisfied with both and even if they are satisfied with one of the models, there can be a big loss financially on the second if it doesn't satisfy the market. It also creates confusion in market, which model would be suitable. Eg. Someone who primarily wants photo use but also needs good video usage, which one would they buy if the 5D series is split up.

Canon make their money on a model that repeatedly gets purchased time and time again over its life span. Eg. 5D2 has been one of the best selling cameras of all time. Canon have had this camera on the production line time and time again.

I think Canon should make their necessary changes such as MP increase, ST-E2 transmitter, AF focus points, Digic 5+, 3.2" clear view II screen, increased weather sealing etc.

With these changes, the 5D3 will sell itself.

The problem is though your potentially looking at a much more expensive camera with those changes, ok for the higher end of the market such as former 1Ds users but it wouldnt cater to the market the 5D mk2 selling at around $2000 has tapped into.

Spilting lines based on features might not be ideal but if Canon have say a high MP 3D with those specs in the $3500 range and a lower end 5D mk3 with say the 18 MP sensor and maybe improved AF for around $2000 then they potentially tap into both those markets. They could also open up a market for users upgrading though the lines which I'd guess at the moment is largely confined to people buying used 5D mk1's first.

I agree... with all the cropped bodies having the same sensor, it seems crazy to me for them to announce a xxxD (as seems to be the annual trend, although that might change), before a 70D or 7Dmkii. I would guess a lot of new bodies to stabalise the whole lineup in the next 12-18 months!

One possible direction they could take is introducing the new processor into the D650 next spring while keeping everything else the same then market it on high FPS.