The upcomming Dead of EOS DSLR / EF-line

[JonSnow]

At some point, everyone currently posting on this forum will be dead. At some point, the sun will expand to a red giant and destroy the earth. I'm sure EF lenses will be discontinued by the time of the latter, but not necessarily the former.

well when the sales curves don´t make strange things canon will come to that conclusion much faster than the sun begins to burn helium.


one thing i noticed is that old DSLR users are clinging to the OVF way more than younger customers.
older DSLR users have a greater resistance to accept an EVF.

but that problem will go ayway.

i too hated EVF until this year and the latest generation of EVF. the EVF in my a6000 is far from perfect.
and of course i prefer the viewfinder of my 5D MK4 over the EVF in the a6000.

but EVF will not get worse, they will become better and better.

AF is only a matter of readout and processing speed.
the mirror is already a limiting factor when it comes to speed i guess.

why would you make a 30 times a second flapping mirror if you don´t have to?
get rid of the mechanics. should be more reliable. cheaper to produce/assemble anyway.

sure you can´t use your camera as a spoting scope anymore with an EVF. at least not without draining power.

 

[Ah-Keong]

Believe soon the EF-M line that would replace the xxD series and the R line that would replace the 6D and 5D series.
DSLR would become specialized tools for action (7D, 1Dx series)....
or would it become two families like the Olympus PEN and OM-D ??

 

[Mikehit]

when canon introduced the EF mount the FD mount had a bigger marketshare.. (what a surprise ).
for some time canon produced both but in only 4-5 years the volume was equal.

today DSLR still dominates, but when you look at the curves (in a sales diagram) you can extrapolate when this will change. at least for new sales.

it depends for how long canon will suport the EF mount. at some point on the sales curve canon managers will see a need to get rid of the EF mount.
it makes no sense to produce new lenses and cameras when the majority is buying RF lenses. just as canon produced no FD mount camera after the T60 (i think?).

with better and better EVF i see the percentage of DSLR owners decrease pretty fast.

i could be wrong but why should the trend suddenly stop or reverse?

last year saw a pretty dramatic shift.
america, long a bastion of the DSLR, saw mirrorless shipments going up 46 percent.

canon and nikon slowed down mirrorless acceptance for the past years. just by ignoring the pro and prosumer market.
that seems to be over.

the future is mirrorless i have no doubt about that. just as LCD replace CRT

If you take the trend from 2012, the line for mirrorless is pretty much flat, so there is o real trend to 'reverse' and while mirrorless sales will increase with the entry of CaNikon to FF mirrorless, we have very little data on which to base a prediction of that curve. If it trundles along at the rates seen in the last 3-5 years it will take decades to wipe out DSLR and as has been said, CaNikon will react to the market - if people keep buying DSLR Canon will keep making EF lenses. Being in my mid-50s by the time that happens I will probably be too old to lugging around 500mm f4 lenses anyway and will sell up and expand my MFT kit.

 

[Keith_Reeder]

one thing i noticed is that old DSLR users are clinging to the OVF way more than younger customers.
older DSLR users have a greater resistance to accept an EVF.

Nobody is doing any such thing. It is simply a fact that right now, OVFs do a better job. Maybe these (by not-at-all-subtle implication) more "open-minded" younger customers are just lacking in the the discernment and experience to know better.

(And are you really checking the ages of posters against their apparent VF preferences? Or just making "facts" up?)

but that problem will go away.

Yeah, thanks for that insight: your diligent research will have noted that many of the older DSLR users have said the same thing...

i too hated EVF until this year and the latest generation of EVF. the EVF in my a6000 is far from perfect.
and of course i prefer the viewfinder of my 5D MK4 over the EVF in the a6000.

So you actually agree with the Old Guys then...

but EVF will not get worse, they will become better and better.

Again - not in dispute.

AF is only a matter of readout and processing speed.

Is that "all"? I suspect it's rather more than that.

 

[Keith_Reeder]

Being in my mid-50s by the time that happens I will probably be too old to lugging around 500mm f4 lenses anyway and will sell up and expand my MFT kit.

Naah...

I'm 58, and I've just come back from a week of lugging my 500mm f4/7D Mk II/converters/everything else I've needed for days in the hills, up and down the Cairngorms in Scotland. And this is walking into and out of the sites I was shooting - not driving to a venue and back.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Here are some actual data for all the Chicken Littles out there...

MILC shipments to Asia outnumber those to the rest of the world. In Japan, Canon's top selling ILC are (in descending order): Kiss X9i (Rebel T7i/800D) > Kiss X9 (Rebel SL2/200D) > Kiss M (M50) > 80D > M100. In other words, of Canon's top five domestic ILCs, three are DSLRs...including the top two. Across brands, 4 of the top 5 best-selling ILCs in Japan are DSLRs...in a market where MILCs are more popular than other markets. And for those who think that somehow the FF MILCs from Canon and Nikon will change that dynamic, there's not a single FF ILC among the top 20 ILCs in Japan.

Back in 2012, some pundits of the day predicted the death of the DSLR in 5 years. Today's Chicken Littles are predicting it even sooner, and time will prove them just as foolish as the pundits from 2012. Unlike rational people with the intelligence to comprehend the above facts, some folks on these boards will go on predicting imminent doom for the DSLR.

 

[JonSnow]

Nobody is doing any such thing. It is simply a fact that right now, OVFs do a better job. Maybe these (by not-at-all-subtle implication) more "open-minded" younger customers are just lacking in the the discernment and experience to know better.

(And are you really checking the ages of posters against their apparent VF preferences? Or just making "facts" up?)

actually there are companys and universitys who do that.
it´s called market research.

they can even tell you which fruits are more liked by the older generation.
i work for a company called qioptiq. we get such researches.

 

[JonSnow]

Here are some actual data for all the Chicken Littles out there...

MILC shipments to Asia outnumber those to the rest of the world. In Japan, Canon's top selling ILC are (in descending order): Kiss X9i (Rebel T7i/800D) > Kiss X9 (Rebel SL2/200D) > Kiss M (M50) > 80D > M100. In other words, of Canon's top five domestic ILCs, three are DSLRs...including the top two. Across brands, 4 of the top 5 best-selling ILCs in Japan are DSLRs...in a market where MILCs are more popular than other markets. And for those who think that somehow the FF MILCs from Canon and Nikon will change that dynamic, there's not a single FF ILC among the top 20 ILCs in Japan.

Back in 2012, some pundits of the day predicted the death of the DSLR in 5 years.

how many pro or prosumer mirrorless camera models did canon and nikon produce during this time?

that when both big player basically only offer DSLR cameras these DSLR cameras will dominate the market is nothing that would surprise me.
the numbers in 2017 show that things change. and with canon and nikon going mirrorless FF, change will only gain traction.

who would have thought in 2012 that canon (and nikon) drags it´s feet for so long?

if the DSLR survives it is because canon does everything to protect it not because people prefer the DSLR.

 

[Mikehit]

how many pro or prosumer mirrorless cameras models did canon and nikon produce during this time?

that when both big player basically only offer DSLR´s camers that these DSLR cameras will dominate the market is nothing that would surprise me.
the numbers in 2017 show that things change. and with canon and nikon going mirrorless the change will only gain traction.

who would have thought in 2012 that canon drags it´s feet for so long?

Has Canon dragged their feet? They joined mirrorless manufacturers in 2012 - why do you always assume the only mirrorless that matter are full frame? And between Canon, Panasonic, Sony and Canon mirrorless has NOT significantly increased market share in all that time.
For someone who gives the impression they understand market research, it seems your powers of analysis are very much lacking.

 

[JonSnow]

Has Canon dragged their feet? They joined mirrorless manufacturers in 2012 - why do you always assume the only mirrorless that matter are full frame? And between Canon, Panasonic, Sony and Canon mirrorless has NOT significantly increased market share in all that time.
For someone who gives the impression they understand market research, it seems your powers of analysis are very much lacking.

canon has produced mirrorless aps-c yes.... with sub par specs to protect the DSLR line.
bad or no EVF. point and shoot ergonomics.
i tried the EOS-M cameras and the AF was bad. until the EOS M5 i would never think about buying into that line. and the M5 is still not 100% there.

canon has to thank it´s reputation and low price that the EOS-M line sold so well.

but if i was in the market for an aps-c camera during that time, i would have sure bought a DSLR too.

today there are basically nikon and canon clinging to the OVF (pentax has no influence on the market).
all other brands have gone mirrorless. many of the old canikon customer and many of the new customer will decide to buy mirrroless in the future.
it´s only logical that EVF market share will rise and DSLR markt share will drop (as it has constantly over the last years).

For someone who gives the impression they understand market research, it seems your powers of analysis are very much lacking.

i never said im into market research... just that i read their results.

i think that some people underestimate what it means that canon and nikon are now introducing FF mirrorless.
it´s a sign that mirrorless is "here" now. the technology (EVF, AF etc) is now good enough to be in canikon pro cameras.
that will also push entry level mirrorless to be more "accepted" by soccer moms and dads who bought a KISS DSLR before.

 

[scyrene]

when you look at the curves (in a sales diagram) you can extrapolate when this will change. at least for new sales.

my guess is as good as everyones.

So which is it, an extrapolation or a guess? The problem is, people have been looking at the limited sales data and coming up with wildly different predictions - mostly based on their personal preferences. None of us - and I agree with what someone said above, not even the manufacturers - really knows.

 

[JonSnow]

So which is it, an extrapolation or a guess? The problem is, people have been looking at the limited sales data and coming up with wildly different predictions - mostly based on their personal preferences. None of us - and I agree with what someone said above, not even the manufacturers - really knows.

as i said i don´t know for sure. same as you don´t know for sure or anyone here.

but for me the arguments that DSLR sales will decline even faster are more plausible than the arguments against it.
especially when the arguments are only current and past sales numbers.

i mean i could have argue about vinyl in the same way at some point in time.... but i would have been wrong.

 

[scyrene]

as i said i don´t know for sure. same as you don´t know for sure or anyone here.

but for me the arguments that DSLR sales will decline even faster is bigger than the arguments against it.

Okay. Remind me what those arguments are please, I'm a bit hazy.

The graph you posted above shows a significant, sustained drop of DSLR sales. But the mirrorless line went down and only just returned to the 2012 level after five years. Mirrorless doesn't seem to be the reason (from that data) for the decline of DSLRs. So what is causing it, and what relevance do these factors have to the discussion of mirrorless?

 

[neuroanatomist]

it´s only logical that EVF market share will rise and DSLR markt share will drop (as it has constantly over the last years).

i never said im into market research... just that i read their results

Reading is not the same as understanding, and you are clearly deficient in the latter if you believe that plot shows the EVF market share rising over the last five years.

 

[JonSnow]

Reading is not the same as understanding, and you are clearly deficient in the latter if you believe that plot shows the EVF market share rising over the last five years.

i said in 2017, you may need to read that again (to understand it).

what i wrote in brackets is about DSLR sales constantly declining. just in case you did not get that.

the numbers in 2017 show that things change.
...
last year saw a pretty dramatic shift.
america, long a bastion of the DSLR, saw mirrorless shipments going up 46 percent.

so don´t put words into my mouth to make your own non arguments look valid.
if you say that´s only one year back and does not provide enough data to show a trend..... yeah well we can talk again at the end of 2019.

wait until most mirrorless sensor can AF and track as fast and accurate as sonys A9.
who will then stick to a DSLR?

 

[docsmith]

Believe soon the EF-M line that would replace the xxD series and the R line that would replace the 6D and 5D series.
DSLR would become specialized tools for action (7D, 1Dx series)....
or would it become two families like the Olympus PEN and OM-D ??

It is possible, if they release a crop sensor R camera and a series of smaller lenses. But, I think you are missing out on something, which is that the M is positioned in a distinctive market that R cannot: Small.

I would hope we are past thinking that camera size is simply about the mirror. Rather, it seems to be about, listed in general order of importance:

1. Sensor size
2. Mount diameter
3. MILC vs DSLR

Just to name three. The FF R will always have a large sensor and will always need larger lenses (except for a few pancakes here or there). You could go for a APS-C sensor, but then you still have the 54 mm mount diameter.

The M has a smaller sensor (APS-C), smaller mount diameter, and is MILC. So the M-line will always be smaller compared to the R. I think small is a distinctive market for adventure, travel, hiking, and much of the population that just wants a small yet highly featured camera. Thus, I am expecting a "consumer" level existence for the M for years to come.

 

[JonSnow]

Okay. Remind me what those arguments are please, I'm a bit hazy.

what are the arguments that the DSLR will stay dominant or relevant... remind me.
in the past it was the superior quality of the OVF. i don´t see that anymore, not for the majority of cases.
the better tracking capabilities. i see that argument completely gone in 1-2 generations (if not today already).

you can sure find plenty of arguments here why mirrorless will take over (if your not lazy).

 

[scyrene]

what are the arguments that the DSLR will stay dominant or relevant... remind me.
in the past it was the superior quality of the OVF. i dont see that anymore for the majority of cases.

you can sure find plenty of arguements here why mirrorless will take over (if your not lazy).

Weak.

 

[JonSnow]

Weak.

well not as weak as your try.
if your unable to find arguments pro and contra and make up your mind i pity you.. but i am sure not supporting your lazyness.

past sales numbers are sure not more convincing arguments for future developments than the extrapolation of current developments.
if that would be the case you would be the guy that predicted DVD would never replaced VHS and we would still all listen to vinyl in 2018.


ps:

its´ strange that some peope here can´t have a discussion without making it personal on some levels. it´s a bad character trait.
if you want to talk about some points you don´t agree with, mention them.

 

[neuroanatomist]

i said in 2017, you may need to read that again (to understand it).

so don´t put words into my mouth to make your own non arguments look valid.

if you say that´s only one year back and does not provide enough data show a trend..... yeah well we can talk again at the end of 2019

Lol. Sure, quoting yourself out of context really makes your case.

Fine...2017. In 2017, MILC shipments managed to struggle back to 2012 levels, helped by the recovery boost after the 2016 earthquake.

But you're right, MILC market share appears to be increasing. For 2016 it was 27%, and 2017 it was 35%. However, after the first 7 months of 2018 it's 37%. Oops, there goes your trend (remember that earthquake boost I mentioned?). If that YTD rate continues, MILC share should equal DSLR share in 2021 or so. That's equal market share, not the end of the DSLR.

As your namesake says, Winter is Coming. Just not very soon. As was said to your namesake, "You know nothing, Jon Snow."