What's Next From Canon?

[Kit.]

Personally, I don't see a problem.

When Live View becomes at least as good as mirror slapping, the mirror will die out due to production cost reasons alone.

 

[Mikehit]

that's were I see things differently. Yes, currently available mirrorless cameras today are not yet "solid state" with all the benefits i listed. But the latest "top-level" FF mirrorless camera - Sony A9 - objectively outperforms Canon EOS 1DX-II and Nikon D5 in a number of areas [e.g. sensor/resolution, 20 fps continuous shooting, eye tracking AF, etc.] and is in no aspect objectively behind those top level DSLRs - except shot reach per battery charge.

Everything else is subjective preferences - which are perfectly fine to have, but not "objectively worse", eg some people prefer OVFs over a WYSIWIG EVF without blackout. Some people - mainly those who frequently use large lenses - prefer a chunkier grip/bigger camera. Some people also love to hear a good, solid, mechanical mirrorslap and shutter actuation. But - personal preferences. Nothing to do with "outperform".

If I recall correctly, the 20fps is only available with focus fixed on the first shot. Fat lot of good for birds in flight....or any other movement for that matter.
And focus tracking is not yet as good as 1Dx2/D5.

So when you say " is in no aspect objectively behind those top level DSLRs" what did you mean exactly?

Then again, given that you admit these uses are not ones you are interested in, how would you possibly know what is expected when people buy these cameras?

 

[fullstop]

BIF, sports and wildlife shooters are small minority niches. For those users (top level) DSLRs may still hold some advantages. For the vast majority of cameras and camera users all the way up to and including EOS 5D 4 level, mirrorless cameras already outperform DSLRs.

But it does not matter what i write. You will see soon enough how mirrorless takes over and DSLRs will become as exotic and small a niche as film shooters today are.

 

[3kramd5]

BIF, sports and wildlife shooters are small minority niches. For those users (top level) DSLRs may still hold some advantages. For the vast majority of cameras and camera users all the way up to and including EOS 5D 4 level, mirrorless cameras already outperform DSLRs.

But it does not matter what i write. You will see soon enough how mirrorless takes over and DSLRs will become as exotic and small a niche as film shooters today are.

DLSR and MILC are niches within a niche.

 

[fullstop]

BIF, sports and wildlife shooters are small minority niches. For those users (top level) DSLRs may still hold some advantages. For the vast majority of cameras and camera users all the way up to and including EOS 5D 4 level, mirrorless cameras already outperform DSLRs.

But it does not matter what i write. You will see soon enough how mirrorless takes over and DSLRs will become as exotic and small a niche as film shooters today are.

DLSR and MILC are niches within a niche.

yes. And the uses so dear to many here are extra small sub-niches.

 

[Deleted member 379512]

that's were I see things differently. Yes, currently available mirrorless cameras today are not yet "solid state" with all the benefits i listed. But the latest "top-level" FF mirrorless camera - Sony A9 - objectively outperforms Canon EOS 1DX-II and Nikon D5 in a number of areas [e.g. sensor/resolution, 20 fps continuous shooting, eye tracking AF, etc.] and is in no aspect objectively behind those top level DSLRs - except shot reach per battery charge.

Everything else is subjective preferences - which are perfectly fine to have, but not "objectively worse", eg some people prefer OVFs over a WYSIWIG EVF without blackout. Some people - mainly those who frequently use large lenses - prefer a chunkier grip/bigger camera. Some people also love to hear a good, solid, mechanical mirrorslap and shutter actuation. But - personal preferences. Nothing to do with "outperform".

If I recall correctly, the 20fps is only available with focus fixed on the first shot. Fat lot of good for birds in flight....or any other movement for that matter.
And focus tracking is not yet as good as 1Dx2/D5.

So when you say " is in no aspect objectively behind those top level DSLRs" what did you mean exactly?

Then again, given that you admit these uses are not ones you are interested in, how would you possibly know what is expected when people buy these cameras?

Can't speak to the tracking performance vs canon/Nikon, but I was under the impression the a9 can af at 20 fps, but it's dependent on which lens - the top level ones can while many of the cheaper options are limited to 15fps?

I had a brief play around with an a9 and 100-400 gm when they were first introduced and that combo seemed to track at full speed

 

[3kramd5]

BIF, sports and wildlife shooters are small minority niches. For those users (top level) DSLRs may still hold some advantages. For the vast majority of cameras and camera users all the way up to and including EOS 5D 4 level, mirrorless cameras already outperform DSLRs.

But it does not matter what i write. You will see soon enough how mirrorless takes over and DSLRs will become as exotic and small a niche as film shooters today are.

DLSR and MILC are niches within a niche.

yes. And the uses so dear to many here are extra small sub-niches.

No doubt. 135 format and wide aperture lenses to cover that format probably lead that charge for nicheniche.

 

[neuroanatomist]

soon

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

 

[3kramd5]

soon

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Soon isna relative term. In this case it’s relative to when harry film sells a codec.

 

[Ozarker]

Here's what's coming next from my MULTIPLE Euro-sources:

I have access to corporate and other intelligence systems that have been rather reliable for me in the past. I don't ask for nor discuss personal identification with my sources since they want to keep themselves anonymous, but I can say that their technical and educational credentials are at such a high-level that they CANNOT be dismissed easily! (i.e. I can't really argue with actual CPU/GPU/DSP chip designers!)

1) Canon is is coming with a short flange distance mirrorless camera.
It will look very much like the M5 and may actually be intended to replace it!
A Canon corporate decision has NOT YET BEEN MADE as to whether to sell the currently in-testing APS-C or Full Frame versions OR BOTH !!! An adapter of some kind will be made available for EITHER or BOTH cameras to allow OTHER Canon lenses to have full functionality!

2) An up-to-65mm Very Large Sensor Medium Format Camera having 50 megapixels at a greater than Sony's 20 fps burst rate has been in-the-wild-testing for almost two years at various levels of refinement.

A large-format specialty EF mount has been designed along with a decent range of lenses created to appeal to sports/action/wildlife (200mm, 400mm, 600mm) plus portraiture (16mm, 35mm, 50mm, 85mm and 135 primes) and ONE stabilized 70-to-200mm zoom will be introduced. One Tilt Shift and Macro lens are also on the table but I don't know what focal length they are. The lenses are so large that focus-by-wire has been implemented BUT there is STILL a MANUAL focus and iris ring on these lenses but they are TRULY drive-by-wire designs.

These new lenses will all be PREMIUM L-series being very large and heavy but WELL PRICED compared to the higher end Leica, Zeiss, Fujinon lenses. This is a system that is DESIGNED for very low-light and very low noise photography at 50 megapixels (i.e. at around 8k by 6.xx k-pixels).

From what I understand, the DSP processing onboard is 20-bits per channel digitizing down to 16-bits per colour channel at 4:4:4/4:2:2 wavelet-based stills AND 4:4:4/4:2:2 INTERFRAME and INTRAFRAME encoded full-sensor downsampled 4k video at 60 fps! The consistent story I am getting from ALL my sources is this is to be Canon's FLAGSHIP STILLS camera being faster, higher resolution, lower noise and MUCH BETTER IMAGE/VIDEO QUALITY than the 1Dx Mk2....the biggest issue is that you will be paying a pretty penny for both the camera and lenses and that Canon expects 200,000+ of them to be sold within it's first 6 months of introduction! (that seems a bit low to me), but anyways, that's still up to 3.2 BILLION EUROS if it stays at the 12000 to 16000 Euros mark for just the body that I have been told it will be sold at!

Add on the lenses and Canon could be on the mark for 5 BILLION+ Euros in just Six Months! For the 350 Million Euros of Research and Development it was estimated/rumoured to cost for this camera, I would say that is a pretty good return on investment!

3) SOME sort of agreement between Apple and Canon is on the table RIGHT NOW!!!
It might be either a joint-venture agreement OR a straight-up takeover of Canon by Apple...BUT...the rumour mill is so hot right now on this, that I am getting well- bombarded by conflicting stories as to which it is! Joint Venture or Takeover?
I can't be truly confident yet as to which it is but I will let you know!

ONE THING that is consistent though is that one or more LARGE SENSOR SMARTPHONES (one inch sensors or larger!) using Canon imaging hardware and software IS in the cards! Will it be Apple-branded or Canon-branded...WHO KNOWS ???

4) DCI 8k (8192 by 4380 pixel) 60 fps Global Shutter sensors ARE coming to the Cinema EOS line of video cameras. There absolutely WILL be Full Frame AND APS-C models! Looks like NAB 2019 is the big splash date for this!

5) And an update to making a combined stills/video XC-15-like body with an interchangeable lens system LIKELY to be introduced at Photokina. 20 megapixels+ with 1" chip and decent 4K interframe-encoded video at 60 fps. Possibly 10-bit 4:2:2.

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST !!!!!!

Harry, go get a Brazilian as you try to wax insider.

 

[Ozarker]

Harry,

On 29th April, you said:

...BUT...

we DO have another software surprise for you which should be happening right around this coming Wednesday....

Well it's now over a week later than you indicated, and we're still waiting.

So...? Have you got anything, or not?

(I think we know the answer.)

Still waiting...

June 5. Still waiting....

June 13. Still waiting...

===

BECAUSE I CAN"T TALK ABOUT IT !!!! GET IT !!!!

When YOU design and code a 4:4:4/4:2:2/4:1:1/4:2:0 High-Frame-Rate up-to-16-bits per colour channel Codec with multichannel audio, video and metadata streaming capability and is platform-independent AND THEN sell it to a large corporation...THEN YOU CAN ASK WHAT'S UP -- Otherwise (*^$*#&^*&$*&!@&*$($(*!@$&* !!!!!!

Harry, I take a pretty good antipsychotic. Doesn't always work it's magic, but it may help you out a little. I'll give you some if you'd like.

 

[Ozarker]

No doubt. But Canon isn't losing market share, so the 'many' people you talk to aren't really relevant.

THAT'S the majority of your 50% market right there.

No $ hit? Wow. Who'd a thunk it. Imagine that. The budget end of the spectrum (where the most people live) happens to represent the largest market share and the largest profit center. Wow. Didn't take a focus group to figure that out, now did it? Everybody knows the truth is revealed at large sporting events where Sony is seen along the sidelines far more often than any other brand. : : :

 

[Ozarker]

Yes, Sony was #1 for two months in one (large) country. Last year they were #2 for two months in another (large) country. And last year, Nikon was #1 in that latter country. For one month.

The rest of the time? Canon.

The fact that Sony has made inroads this quickly and is making even bigger strides this year says it all. When this years results are released next winter will Sony be the #1 brand for 3 or 4 or 5 months? The slo-mo Canon train wreck is happening. And Sony is doing that by pushing FF bodies and lenses. Canon? Rebels.

2 or 3 years ago we laughed (I was one of the laughing ones) when someone said Sony was going to be a top tier contender. Look at them now. A buyer would be crazy to dismiss a Sony offering if they were in the market. You couldn't say that those 2 or 3 years ago. Sony is being rewarded by pushing the envelope and giving buyers what they want. Canon? They gave us the M50 and the Rebel 4000D. The 4000D was released less than 4 months ago and it's already looooooong forgotten. How the mighty fall.

Yes. Sony is making inroads. People are falling all over themselves to get a Sony. Canon is doomed.

 

[Ozarker]

I'd recommend just ignoring him. It's abundantly clear that he's fabricating all this bullish!t as a pathetic attempt to gain attention and notoriety, and responding to him merely plays into that and feeds his psychoses.

Oh, I know. I just want to remind people every chance I get that Harry has never programmed anything except the microwave in his mom's kitchen that he uses to cook his pizza rolls.

Kitchen? Ha! He's been locked in the basement for years.

 

[Ozarker]

i am sure that back in the day, when some smart folks invented the wheel, there were less smart folk standing around saying "what's it good for? why ould we not continue to just carry things on our backs and ride our oxen and horses to go places. those are good, proven mobility solutions. that darn newfangled wheel is just a fad, that will go away soon. a solution to a problem to be found. if god had wanted us to use wheels, we would have been born with them, instead of legs." yada yada ... let's just call them apologists!

and when the first photographs were taken all them portrait, landscape and still-life painters surely said: "not needed. we can do it way better!" ...

Comparing MILC to the invention of the wheel. : : :

 

[Mikehit]

BIF, sports and wildlife shooters are small minority niches. For those users (top level) DSLRs may still hold some advantages. For the vast majority of cameras and camera users all the way up to and including EOS 5D 4 level, mirrorless cameras already outperform DSLRs.

But it does not matter what i write. You will see soon enough how mirrorless takes over and DSLRs will become as exotic and small a niche as film shooters today are.

So having compared Sony to top level DSLRs and had someone point out the supposed superiority does not exist, you ow change tack and find another argument to use.

Again....no-one is denying that mirrorless will supplant DSLRs - I have asked before for such a quote but you have been unable to present one. What people are arguing are your fatuous claims about the urgency with which Canon needs to do it and your equally fatuous claims that Sony mirrorless are already superior to Canon DSLRs in context of the market as a whole.

 

[unfocused]

Again....no-one is denying that mirrorless will supplant DSLRs...

There might be someone.

[quote author=DSLR]
Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated [/quote]
It's way too early to assume that DSLRs are going away. They still have a lot of things going for them and I expect they will outlive me.

Mirrorless cameras might be the wave of the future, but they might also be a passing fancy. Most likely in my opinion is that the DSLR's basic design shape and form will remain and mirrorless functions and features will be incorporated into the basic design.

There is nothing about mirrorless that is so compelling that it makes the demise of DSLRs a certainty.

 

[Durf]

Again....no-one is denying that mirrorless will supplant DSLRs...

There might be someone.

[quote author=DSLR]
Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated

It's way too early to assume that DSLRs are going away. They still have a lot of things going for them and I expect they will outlive me.

Mirrorless cameras might be the wave of the future, but they might also be a passing fancy. Most likely in my opinion is that the DSLR's basic design shape and form will remain and mirrorless functions and features will be incorporated into the basic design.

There is nothing about mirrorless that is so compelling that it makes the demise of DSLRs a certainty.
[/quote]

I totally agree; Mirrorless is here to stay for sure but I think the frenzy we are seeing is somewhat a trend and will somewhat pass and fade away a bit. The big camera companies will all have both their mirrorless and DSLR lines for many years to come in my opinion.

I also believe many people that switched to mirrorless systems will return back to using DSLR systems.....and some never will go back to DSLR's. (different strokes for different folk's).

DSLR's will live on and surely out live me....

But, who knows? there may be some type of new camera invented in the future that could actually compete and or threaten to replace both the Mirrorless and DSLR's.

Personal for me and what I do, I'll keep using DSLR's, I really have no desire for the mirrorless systems nor do I feel the overwhelming excitement about them so many are displaying.

 

[Mikehit]

Again....no-one is denying that mirrorless will supplant DSLRs...

There might be someone.

[quote author=DSLR]
Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated

It's way too early to assume that DSLRs are going away. They still have a lot of things going for them and I expect they will outlive me.

Mirrorless cameras might be the wave of the future, but they might also be a passing fancy. Most likely in my opinion is that the DSLR's basic design shape and form will remain and mirrorless functions and features will be incorporated into the basic design.

There is nothing about mirrorless that is so compelling that it makes the demise of DSLRs a certainty.
[/quote]

Oh, I agree that DSLRs will still be here, but by 'supplant' I was referring to the total market and how the greater simplicity of manufacturer, theoretical lower cost of manufacturing and the fancy gizmos possible with mirrorless should give them a distinct advantage. How large a market share DSLR will keep hold of is an great unknown, but I do believe that eventually mirrorless will get the largest share of the ILC market. But we are not there yet and DSLRs will have healthy life for a good few years.

 

[jayphotoworks]

Again....no-one is denying that mirrorless will supplant DSLRs...

There might be someone.

[quote author=DSLR]
Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated

It's way too early to assume that DSLRs are going away. They still have a lot of things going for them and I expect they will outlive me.

Mirrorless cameras might be the wave of the future, but they might also be a passing fancy. Most likely in my opinion is that the DSLR's basic design shape and form will remain and mirrorless functions and features will be incorporated into the basic design.

There is nothing about mirrorless that is so compelling that it makes the demise of DSLRs a certainty.

Oh, I agree that DSLRs will still be here, but by 'supplant' I was referring to the total market and how the greater simplicity of manufacturer, theoretical lower cost of manufacturing and the fancy gizmos possible with mirrorless should give them a distinct advantage. How large a market share DSLR will keep hold of is an great unknown, but I do believe that eventually mirrorless will get the largest share of the ILC market. But we are not there yet and DSLRs will have healthy life for a good few years.
[/quote]

The interesting part about this, is that once Canon gets a stronger foothold in the MILC market, via expanding their consumer models with some prosumer and flagship models for pros and enthusiasts, I'm sure they will themselves be a major influence in ushering out the DSLR era.