Canon Hong Kong confirms September 14, 2021 announcement date for the Canon EOS R3

I agree with all your points. On the R1, I also believe that Canon is in no rush. In fact, other than dual CFExpress card slots, I'm not even sure what Canon might add to an R1 to distinguish it from the R3 and justify a higher price. It seems that with the 1DxIII and the R3 (if it delivers as promised) Canon has the sports and photojournalism market very well covered.

For me, that raises the question of what niche would an R1 target. An R1 might be compared to a Leica. Built to professional standards, but actually marketed to enthusiasts who are willing to spend top dollar to have the best camera Canon makes. To further argue this, I look at the traditional market for the 1series bodies and there is no doubt that the professional market is shrinking fast and those that remain are being squeezed financially, making a lower cost R3 more appealing.

That means we can throw out all the old assumptions about the 1 series and possibly see specifications that will appeal to high income buyers more than professionals (such as a 45+ mp sensor).

It's also possible that with the R3 and 1Dx III available, Canon would like to get back on the four-year schedule for the 1 series, pushing a development announcement out to 2023 and actual release early in 2024. This would also give them time to perfect any new technologies that could separate the R1 from the R3. That might mean that the R3 will be a one and done series.

Canon does seem to be on an aggressive development cycle for the R series, building out their lens selection by replacing EF lenses with RF counterparts and adding new RF lenses at a rapid pace. They already offer more R bodies than they ever had in full frame DSLRs, with more rumored to be on the way. I'm guessing that the other rumored R bodies (low cost or high megapixel) offer greater return on investment than an R1.
An R1 which is the form factor of the 1DX would get more shots per charge, to start. Global shutter would be a differentiator. Quad pixel AF another. If the R3 is getting effectively the same IBIS as the R5, Canon's v.2 IBIS. R3's eye control v.2. Increased processing power for crunching through high-res video, as well as photo processing to make the cache effectively limitless. There's a lot an R1 could have.
 
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My random thoughts for the day...

1) Folks are putting too much credence on Canon's words of the R3 not being a flagship. They also said the R5 wasn't a replacement to the 5D4 yet there's been zero chatter about a 5D5, and likely won't be one. Canon still has 1DX3's to sell, they're not stupid, and they don't know the success (or failure) of the R3. I'll say it here, if the R3 is a huge success amongst the 1DX community, an R1 will not be rushed out in any sort of hurry whatsoever.

2) Canon's batting average is not 1.000. Just because Canon makes a decision on something doesn't mean they're going to knock it out the park. This notion that because a decision was made means there's data to back up it's success is foolish. Data helps make a calculated decision but there's no way to know if something will achieve maximum success until...well...until the product hits the market and actual sales metrics can be analyzed.

3) Canon, to some degree, is swayed by the market and what the likes of Sony are doing. We likely wouldn't have seen the EOS R when we did if Sony (and the mirrorless market) wasn't taking a meaningful chunk of the marketshare. Yes, Canon doesn't immediately respond to the market and customer the way Sony does, but let's not pretend Canon is in their own world doing what they deem appropriate regardless of what's going on around them.

4) Speaking of Sony, people need to understand that Canon can't afford to take the risks that Sony does. Canon is a brand known for it's reliability, durability, and function. Sony, until recently, wasn't a camera-world juggernaut (market share clearly tells this story); they're in a much better position to constantly change their products, try new things, and give their loudest customers what they're asking for because if a product fails, it won't be a major PR loss for them. Imagine Canon being experimental with a 1DX3 and it falling on its face at the Olympics, that would be devastating for a company like Canon.

Ahhh, I feel better now. Back to work :-D

P.S. It's fine if you don't agree, these are just my thoughts anyway. ;-)
A well written piece Anthony. I'd agree with most of what you say but I personally do find the R3 an odd move by Canon.
I can't see Canon rushing out an R1 soon and find it odd in the sense that at least in my opinion the Sony A1 is the best full frame camera (mirrored or mirrorless). It appears both reliable and durable and users and reviewers are extremely happy with it.s performance and focusing abilities. It's unusual for Canon to surrender that position and it could be a long time before they regain it. The R1 may not exceed it and Sony may up the ante too. It wasn't a strategy that Canon adopted up to the 1DXIII. It maybe Canon were caught off guard by the progress Sony made and how far Sony were going to push the A1. Hence probably the naming, they wanted to avoid comparison the A1. Did they spend years developing to make the second best camera in the full frame department? A number of prominent press agencies have switched to Sony. I would have thought that would be a very expensive switch and a big decision to move brands on that scale. It's a competitive area, I'm sure the agencies play one off the other. I hope the R3 is impressive in the field, escpecially in terms of focusing and tracking.
 
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A well written piece Anthony. I'd agree with most of what you say but I personally do find the R3 an odd move by Canon.
I can't see Canon rushing out an R1 soon and find it odd in the sense that at least in my opinion the Sony A1 is the best full frame camera (mirrored or mirrorless). It appears both reliable and durable and users and reviewers are extremely happy with it.s performance and focusing abilities. It's unusual for Canon to surrender that position and it could be a long time before they regain it. The R1 may not exceed it and Sony may up the ante too. It wasn't a strategy that Canon adopted up to the 1DXIII. It maybe Canon were caught off guard by the progress Sony made and how far Sony were going to push the A1. Hence probably the naming, they wanted to avoid comparison the A1. Did they spend years developing to make the second best camera in the full frame department? A number of prominent press agencies have switched to Sony. I would have thought that would be a very expensive switch and a big decision to move brands on that scale. It's a competitive area, I'm sure the agencies play one off the other. I hope the R3 is impressive in the field, escpecially in terms of focusing and tracking.
I agree that the R3 is an odd move, but at the same time it may be a move to shore up the lower end of the professional market. We're talking wedding photographers, entry level sports shooters, freelance photojournalists, etc... that might not be able to justify the 7k that they're getting ready to charge for the R1, but could afford the jump to the R3. I feel like it's been a hole in the Canon lineup for some time. For most part that range was (poorly) served with the 5D IV or used 1 Series cameras from the previous generation.

As far as the agencies undergoing high costs to move to Sony, I would say it's unlikely. Sony likely either gave them severely discounted equipment or even paid them to make the change. In the end, it would be cheap marketing. I believe that those large agencies that switched did it for purely economic reasons more than any technical advantage the A1 may have had. The bean counters don't have to use the cameras, just manage their budgets.
 
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Canon’s FF MILC path started with the EOS R at $2300, then 5 months later the RP which is the low-cost entry at $1299, then over a year later the R5/R6. That doesn’t seem ‘top down’.
Right. I forgot about razed the R & RP from my mind the moment I tried them in a shop. So bottom-up with RP/R -> R6/R5 -> R3 -> R1(?). Conservative as ever.
 
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You know what? I am going to drop a little bomb here..
I think that Canon actually might consider competitive pricing on the R3.

R6 costs 2500 euro's, R5 costs 4500 euro's .. I seriously think Canon will make the R3 around 4900 euro's.
Why? Because of the enormous fuss and negative vibe around the 24 mpix. This competitive pricing is an insurance that people will actually buy this camera.
And marketing wise also a good idea, because once you've got the camera, you're eventually going buy the (RF)lenses. :)

So... Two scenarios:

1. Canon listens to the market (=people like us*) and applies a reasonable price somewere between 4000 - 4999,- euro's.
2. Canon won't listen to anyone, says **** them and puts on a Canon pricetag ... 5999,- euro's or even more.

This 1000-2000 euro's will make a huge difference, I might even consider buying one or two if the price is ok.
Makes me feel less sick if I have to sell these camera's after a year or two, when the real 'flagship' comes out. :ROFLMAO:


Canon has made it difficult for themselves now, if the price is high, as we know from Canon, they might risk a massive hate-campaign.
First the 24 mpix debate, now the pricing gone (stays) crazy.. what to like about Canon anymore?

They themselves stated the R3 is NOT ... I repeat: THE R3 IS NOT THE FLAGSHIP CAMERA.
So that means the pricing will not be flagship either. We'll see...

3999 euro's is a good price for a non flagship.
If they do this, I will buy two and trade all my EF lenses for RF.
And I will definitely not be the only one.

.
 
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If it's 4000$, I guess no one will be able to buy it for the next 12 months.
So it would be dumb of they, since they can milk out 2000$ more of profit.
They don't have unlimited inventory.
Like apple, canon must raise the prices to match it's production capabilities, with actual lower supply of components, and consummer demand ;).
 
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You know what? I am going to drop a little bomb here..
I think that Canon actually might consider competitive pricing on the R3.

R6 costs 2500 euro's, R5 costs 4500 euro's .. I seriously think Canon will make the R3 around 4900 euro's.
Why? Because of the enormous fuss and negative vibe around the 24 mpix. This competitive pricing is an insurance that people will actually buy this camera.
And marketing wise also a good idea, because once you've got the camera, you're eventually going buy the (RF)lenses. :)

So... Two scenarios:

1. Canon listens to the market (=people like us*) and applies a reasonable price somewere between 4000 - 4999,- euro's.
2. Canon won't listen to anyone, says **** them and puts on a Canon pricetag ... 5999,- euro's or even more.

This 1000-2000 euro's will make a huge difference, I might even consider buying one or two if the price is ok.
Makes me feel less sick if I have to sell these camera's after a year or two, when the real 'flagship' comes out. :ROFLMAO:


Canon has made it difficult for themselves now, if the price is high, as we know from Canon, they might risk a massive hate-campaign.
First the 24 mpix debate, now the pricing gone (stays) crazy.. what to like about Canon anymore?

They themselves stated the R3 is NOT ... I repeat: THE R3 IS NOT THE FLAGSHIP CAMERA.
So that means the pricing will not be flagship either. We'll see...

3999 euro's is a good price for a non flagship.
If they do this, I will buy two and trade all my EF lenses for RF.
And I will definitely not be the only one.

.
The pricing will be competitive for a camera with the capabilities of the R3. $4000/4000 Euros is too cheap. It won't happen. Do you really expect the price difference to an R5 to be only a couple of hundred? 24mp isn't that big of a disability if this camera does everything else massively better. People are way too hung up on the possible 24mp resolution of this camera. It will be at least 1000 more than the R5. I don't expect it to be over 5500, but it will definitely be a more capable camera than the R5 in every way except perhaps resolution. For that, get an R5 as a 2nd body.
 
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The pricing will be competitive for a camera with the capabilities of the R3. $4000/4000 Euros is too cheap. It won't happen. Do you really expect the price difference to an R5 to be only a couple of hundred? 24mp isn't that big of a disability if this camera does everything else massively better. People are way too hung up on the possible 24mp resolution of this camera. It will be at least 1000 more than the R5. I don't expect it to be over 5500, but it will definitely be a more capable camera than the R5 in every way except perhaps resolution. For that, get an R5 as a 2nd body.
All you have to do is look at the price of the A9II and it should be a good indicator of pricing for the R3.
 
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I agree with all your points. On the R1, I also believe that Canon is in no rush. In fact, other than dual CFExpress card slots, I'm not even sure what Canon might add to an R1 to distinguish it from the R3 and justify a higher price. It seems that with the 1DxIII and the R3 (if it delivers as promised) Canon has the sports and photojournalism market very well covered.

For me, that raises the question of what niche would an R1 target. An R1 might be compared to a Leica. Built to professional standards, but actually marketed to enthusiasts who are willing to spend top dollar to have the best camera Canon makes. To further argue this, I look at the traditional market for the 1series bodies and there is no doubt that the professional market is shrinking fast and those that remain are being squeezed financially, making a lower cost R3 more appealing.

That means we can throw out all the old assumptions about the 1 series and possibly see specifications that will appeal to high income buyers more than professionals (such as a 45+ mp sensor).

It's also possible that with the R3 and 1Dx III available, Canon would like to get back on the four-year schedule for the 1 series, pushing a development announcement out to 2023 and actual release early in 2024. This would also give them time to perfect any new technologies that could separate the R1 from the R3. That might mean that the R3 will be a one and done series.

Canon does seem to be on an aggressive development cycle for the R series, building out their lens selection by replacing EF lenses with RF counterparts and adding new RF lenses at a rapid pace. They already offer more R bodies than they ever had in full frame DSLRs, with more rumored to be on the way. I'm guessing that the other rumored R bodies (low cost or high megapixel) offer greater return on investment than an R1.
I am starting to think that the R1 will be the 'everything' camera rather than a 'pro' flagship or a 'landscape' camera etc. I think they will pack absolutely everything they have that is the biggest and best of the available features. Megapickles, speed, battery life, EVF. EVERYTHING. I don't think a single feature it has will be topped by any other Canon Camera and it will be priced accordingly.
 
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Pricing will be interesting. They keep saying it is NOT their flagship....but I think there is a chance it will be more expensive than the 1DXIII. The R1 I think has a chance to be $8k USD, which gives a lot of room between there and the R5 to slot this. Canon has been pushing pricing a lot (e.g. 20%, or sometimes more), so that is how you get a $6500 1DXIII up to an $8k R1. Could they then put the R3 at $6600? I think its at least possible.

I hope its more like $4k, but I think that makes it too close to the R5. SO I'm guessing the floor for pricing will be $4500. In my purely speculative math here, that's a range of probability between $4500 and $6700USD. All too much for me. But I'm still waiting with excitement to see what the final answer is.

Brian
I think the R5 launched at about $4500, so my guess is that the R3 will be about $5500-6000, i.e about halfway between the R5 and 1Dxiii. Canon should be able to sell thousands at that price. Heaven only knows how much the R1 will cost - I think we can safely assume that Canon will wait to see what Nikon charge for the Z9, and then add at least another $1000...

Way too expensive for me, I'll stick with my R5 and add a battery grip and a couple more lenses instead.
 
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