Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]

[hmmm]

Can's Recent prices don't suggest a bargain FF, alas

Everything lately from Canon -- from the G1X to the 24 and 28 USM IS -- to the 5DmkIII has been much more expensive than one might have expected. If there is new "entry level" FF I would be very surprised if it broke that pricing trend. Expect an 18MP ff with 9pt AF and digic V at $2.5K. Expect the new mirrorless -- if it has a G1X size sensor -- to be at $899 for body only. And expect the EF/ef-s adapter for it to be about $300.

That is just the way Canon pricing seems to be headed. I think the wish for a ff price breakthrough from Canon is bound for disappointment. Sure hope I'm wrong about it though...

 

[stabmasterasron]

I believe it will be almost a stripped down version of the 5D III for studio/landscape.

Well, then it will be very important that the camera can produce a wide amount of DR. Preferably as good as the D800 DR.

I dont think Canon has the tech for this right now.

I agree about the DR. I don't believe the 5DIII is a true competitor for the D800 and I think this new one will be. I don't understand why you think Canon doesn't have the tech to build a high mp sensor with good DR. For all we know, they may have been working on one for quite some time and waiting to release it.

People are getting too hung up on the term entry level. Think of it as a lower cost FF rather than entry level. A plasticky rebel type FF isn't going to make it into the xD line. This is their "Pro" line not consumer line. I believe this will be a direct D800 competitor and they will under cut Nikon's pricing and piss in their cornflakes. Their timing kind of sucks though.

"A plasticky rebel type FF isn't going to make it into the xD line" - No, a rebel will not be called an xD, but that doesn't mean that Canon will not put a FF sensor in a Rebel, in fact I see it as inevitable. The Rebel is getting it's lunch eaten by compact mirrorless systems. Because those systems have equal IQ and smart looking compact bodies. The Rebels will have to try much harder if it is to survive as a dslr. One way to do this is to up the IQ with a FF sensor. The other would be to put a more sophisticated focus system in it and/or make it much faster. Either way, consumers win as better tech trickles down to the masses.

I am not suggesting that this next "entry level" FF camera will be a Rebel. It might be an xxD series camera. Either way, it is an exciting time to be a photographer hobbyist, as technology is evolving quickly and becoming more affordable.

 

[tron]

This comes from someone that is probably the most accurate of any source with stuff months off from coming to market. Specs and the like are never decided this far in advance. I have heard there are multiple camera configurations in the wild right now.

If I had to wager, a 5D3 minus the AF, frame rate and build quality. $1999 anyone?

5D3 minus the AF, frame rate and build quality = 5D2.

 

[D_Rochat]

I agree about the DR. I don't believe the 5DIII is a true competitor for the D800 and I think this new one will be. I don't understand why you think Canon doesn't have the tech to build a high mp sensor with good DR. For all we know, they may have been working on one for quite some time and waiting to release it.

People are getting too hung up on the term entry level. Think of it as a lower cost FF rather than entry level. A plasticky rebel type FF isn't going to make it into the xD line. This is their "Pro" line not consumer line. I believe this will be a direct D800 competitor and they will under cut Nikon's pricing and piss in their cornflakes. Their timing kind of sucks though.

If the 5D3 isn't the true competitor for the D800 then which product from Nikon is it meant to compete against?

I think they made the D800 as a 5D competitor, but Canon took a slightly different path with the Mark III. I see the mk III as a do it all work horse, not just a studio or landscape camera. I think this upcoming body will be the answer to the D800 and the MP hungry crowd. I also think it will be closely price but under the D800. Under 2k is a dream.

 

[D_Rochat]

I believe it will be almost a stripped down version of the 5D III for studio/landscape.

Well, then it will be very important that the camera can produce a wide amount of DR. Preferably as good as the D800 DR.

I dont think Canon has the tech for this right now.

I agree about the DR. I don't believe the 5DIII is a true competitor for the D800 and I think this new one will be. I don't understand why you think Canon doesn't have the tech to build a high mp sensor with good DR. For all we know, they may have been working on one for quite some time and waiting to release it.

People are getting too hung up on the term entry level. Think of it as a lower cost FF rather than entry level. A plasticky rebel type FF isn't going to make it into the xD line. This is their "Pro" line not consumer line. I believe this will be a direct D800 competitor and they will under cut Nikon's pricing and piss in their cornflakes. Their timing kind of sucks though.

"A plasticky rebel type FF isn't going to make it into the xD line" - No, a rebel will not be called an xD, but that doesn't mean that Canon will not put a FF sensor in a Rebel, in fact I see it as inevitable. The Rebel is getting it's lunch eaten by compact mirrorless systems. Because those systems have equal IQ and smart looking compact bodies. The Rebels will have to try much harder if it is to survive as a dslr. One way to do this is to up the IQ with a FF sensor. The other would be to put a more sophisticated focus system in it and/or make it much faster. Either way, consumers win as better tech trickles down to the masses.

I am not suggesting that this next "entry level" FF camera will be a Rebel. It might be an xxD series camera. Either way, it is an exciting time to be a photographer hobbyist, as technology is evolving quickly and becoming more affordable.

Maybe, maybe not. I don't see the APS-C leaving the xxD line. I do see the APS-C leaving the xD line though. As long as they weather seal the 70D, there will be demand for a crop in that form. The APS-C isn't dead yet.

 

[Stu_bert]

1DX Sensor 18MP
7D AF
7D Body
Digic V not+
<$1999K

I would guess Canon will see how the market responds. Sub $2K vs high MP. Higher volume and Canon's own response to Nikon's disruptive 36MP, while they develop their own MP monster for 2013.

They've already shown they will encroach on the 1DX by putting the AF into the 5D MK III, so I don't think they will worry about using the sensor in a cheaper body. But I think they will want to protect their MK III sales. So it will have a lower MP than the MK III

I think this will mark the end of the APS-C with a xD numbering and there will be no 7D MK II, this will be handled by a 70D in 2013. With Canon shifting their prices up, then the xxD range will come in at the old price of the xD.

 

[stabmasterasron]

I believe it will be almost a stripped down version of the 5D III for studio/landscape.

Well, then it will be very important that the camera can produce a wide amount of DR. Preferably as good as the D800 DR.

I dont think Canon has the tech for this right now.

I agree about the DR. I don't believe the 5DIII is a true competitor for the D800 and I think this new one will be. I don't understand why you think Canon doesn't have the tech to build a high mp sensor with good DR. For all we know, they may have been working on one for quite some time and waiting to release it.

People are getting too hung up on the term entry level. Think of it as a lower cost FF rather than entry level. A plasticky rebel type FF isn't going to make it into the xD line. This is their "Pro" line not consumer line. I believe this will be a direct D800 competitor and they will under cut Nikon's pricing and piss in their cornflakes. Their timing kind of sucks though.

"A plasticky rebel type FF isn't going to make it into the xD line" - No, a rebel will not be called an xD, but that doesn't mean that Canon will not put a FF sensor in a Rebel, in fact I see it as inevitable. The Rebel is getting it's lunch eaten by compact mirrorless systems. Because those systems have equal IQ and smart looking compact bodies. The Rebels will have to try much harder if it is to survive as a dslr. One way to do this is to up the IQ with a FF sensor. The other would be to put a more sophisticated focus system in it and/or make it much faster. Either way, consumers win as better tech trickles down to the masses.

I am not suggesting that this next "entry level" FF camera will be a Rebel. It might be an xxD series camera. Either way, it is an exciting time to be a photographer hobbyist, as technology is evolving quickly and becoming more affordable.

Maybe, maybe not. I don't see the APS-C leaving the xxD line. I do see the APS-C leaving the xD line though. As long as they weather seal the 70D, there will be demand for a crop in that form. The APS-C isn't dead yet.

Only reasons for crop that i know of are:
-lower cost
-able to shoot with smaller, lighter lenses

Some people have suggested that APS-C has more reach. But why could this not be accomplished with cropping in post, or in camera. In fact, when EVF become good enough to displace optical view finders, maybe there will be a switch to switch between a full view and a more "zoomed in", aps-c type of view. You could even flange up an ef-s lens if you wanted to.
But as mirrorless become more capable, I see no reason for aps-c in full sized dslr bodies. I don't think that FF is the answer to all problems in dslrs. In fact, if given the choice between a 5dmkii and a 7d, for the way I shoot, i think a 7d is more useful - simply because of its speed. But now that a 5dmkiii is available, that camera is superior to either of the other two.

As far as the people who are saying that canon is moving up in price on the 5d line - if I am not mistaken I believe the orginal 5d introd at somewhere around $3300 - in 2005! Now taking into account inflation, and the big improvements in noise, AF, speed, video - the fact that the 5d mk iii is "only" $3499 is a miracle. OK, maybe not a miracle, but certainly not an affront to humanity.

 

[EOBeav]

My 2/5 of a nickel: The new FF they are speaking of will be a 7DmkII with Digic 5-ish and ~$1999USD. After that point, I see the Rebel and xxD lines being merged into one. There might not be a point anymore to have both. Only time will tell.

I picked up my 5DmkII over the holidays when it was <~$2kUSD and came included with a couple of nice freebies. I don't know how many of those were sold, but my guess is that, like me, many people were waiting for that price point.

 

[stabmasterasron]

[/quote]

Maybe, maybe not. I don't see the APS-C leaving the xxD line. I do see the APS-C leaving the xD line though. As long as they weather seal the 70D, there will be demand for a crop in that form. The APS-C isn't dead yet.
[/quote]

By the way, I don't think the demand is for aps-c, I think the demand is for a capable camera at a reasonable cost. If you dropped a FF sensor in a weather sealed 70D, i don't think the sensor size would impede sales.

 

[squarebox]

I think I'll jump in with my two cents.

My entry lvl full frame would be...

5dmkii sensor (to cut costs as I'm sure they have decreased manufacturing costs over the years and it's still a wonderful sensor). Alternatively, 1dx or 5d3 sensor, which ever is less expensive to manufacture. Though I think the lower MP 1dx sensor would be more forgiving to cheap lenses.
Rebel quality body with an articulating screen.
Rebel quality AF system
3-4 fps
~96% view finder
EF 28-135mm f/3.5-5.6 IS kit lens; or a new, inexpensive 28 - 85ish mm f3.5 - 5.6 IS lens with silent autofocus
Digic V
Single SD slot
Small rebel level image buffer
pop up flash (with speedlight control)

If all that could be priced for $1600 (or $1250 body only), I suspect consumers would be blown away by the image quality and low light ability as compared to current rebels.

In my opinion, such a camera would place the full frame digital world into the hands of the masses. I have no doubt Best Buy sales people could be instructed to sell all the advantages full frame offers over a crop sensor.

My only problem with this is that it would totally destroy the EF-S lens market. Which is what they may want to do to stem the tide of losing customers to mirrorless cameras. Unless, they are making a mirrorless camera that takes EF-S lenses. If that is the case, then you could see Canon being a leader in the market.

 

[stabmasterasron]

I think I'll jump in with my two cents.

My entry lvl full frame would be...

5dmkii sensor (to cut costs as I'm sure they have decreased manufacturing costs over the years and it's still a wonderful sensor). Alternatively, 1dx or 5d3 sensor, which ever is less expensive to manufacture. Though I think the lower MP 1dx sensor would be more forgiving to cheap lenses.
Rebel quality body with an articulating screen.
Rebel quality AF system
3-4 fps
~96% view finder
EF 28-135mm f/3.5-5.6 IS kit lens; or a new, inexpensive 28 - 85ish mm f3.5 - 5.6 IS lens with silent autofocus
Digic V
Single SD slot
Small rebel level image buffer
pop up flash (with speedlight control)

If all that could be priced for $1600 (or $1250 body only), I suspect consumers would be blown away by the image quality and low light ability as compared to current rebels.

In my opinion, such a camera would place the full frame digital world into the hands of the masses. I have no doubt Best Buy sales people could be instructed to sell all the advantages full frame offers over a crop sensor.

My only problem with this is that it would totally destroy the EF-S lens market. Which is what they may want to do to stem the tide of losing customers to mirrorless cameras. Unless, they are making a mirrorless camera that takes EF-S lenses. If that is the case, then you could see Canon being a leader in the market.

As far as I know there were only 2 really high quality ef-s lenses made. The 17-55 2.8 and the 10-22 WA. All others were of lesser quality - not saying bad, just not L quality type lenses. So, yes, if Canon abandons aps-c, then these lenses will be lost. But I don't think aps-c is going anywhere. It will be in at least the next generation of Rebels (most likely). And possibly in a Canon mirrorless system.

But I do think that in the long run, aps-c will become extinct in dslr bodies. Just no reason for it. Mirrorless aps-c systems have same IQ and are much more compact. To really have product differentiation, dslr's have to offer something different. Some compelling reason to take on the extra weight and bulk of a larger body. Right now, that argument is ruggedness and speed. But mirrorless will close that gap. Only place left to go is larger sensor. Compacts can't go full frame because then they would have to have much larger lenses, negating any gains in body compactness. Imagine 70-200 2.8 IS on a nex type camera. No way that would work out.

 

[D_Rochat]

By the way, I don't think the demand is for aps-c, I think the demand is for a capable camera at a reasonable cost. If you dropped a FF sensor in a weather sealed 70D, i don't think the sensor size would impede sales.

People still want the APS-C for many reasons. Cost is definatley one of them, but reach is the big one. Bird and other wildlife types like the extra reach at no extra cost. They can effectively turn a 400mm to a 640mm with the APS-C. Add a 1.4 converter and you have a 896mm reach or 1280 with a 2X.

The APS-C brigade have explained why they still want and need one on this very forum many times. Then there is also the EF-S argument mentioned above. My heart won't be broken if they do away with that sensor, I just don't think it's going to happen yet. At least not on the xxD line.

 

[XanuFoto]

The 5D MK II is still selling well. The 5D MK III has sold very well right out of the gates. So tell me why Canon needs to make a 36 mega pixel camera???

 

[D_Rochat]

The 5D MK II is still selling well. The 5D MK III has sold very well right out of the gates. So tell me why Canon needs to make a 36 mega pixel camera???

I'm with you there and I'm just waiting to get the mkIII myself, but there is a market for high mp bodies. People will buy it.

 

[XanuFoto]

There could be a market for high MP bodies. But most Nikon wedding photogs I know say they are sticking with the D700. So this market is limited to Landscape and Studio photographers. Most serious studio guys use MF and not many Landscape photographers are money owners. So I am not sure who these High Mp buyers will be.

 

[Terry Rogers]

The 5D MK II is still selling well. The 5D MK III has sold very well right out of the gates. So tell me why Canon needs to make a 36 mega pixel camera???

I'm with you there and I'm just waiting to get the mkIII myself, but there is a market for high mp bodies. People will buy it.

Agreed. I'm sure Canon will be watching Nikon eagerly to see how the d800 does. If it does extremely well, it will only be a matter of time before canon releases their own megapixel monster. If there is significant money to be made in that market, then I'm sure canon will try and get a piece of that action. Then many of those who switched systems to buy a d800 might regret their short sightedness.

If the d800 doesn't do well, Canon will be laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[CatfishSoupFTW]

as unlikely as a entry level fullframe, i couldnt see what they could do. maybe remove AF points? i dunno :S but i wouldnt mind that at the same time, as long as its more than the usual 9.

 

[stabmasterasron]

By the way, I don't think the demand is for aps-c, I think the demand is for a capable camera at a reasonable cost. If you dropped a FF sensor in a weather sealed 70D, i don't think the sensor size would impede sales.

People still want the APS-C for many reasons. Cost is definatley one of them, but reach is the big one. Bird and other wildlife types like the extra reach at no extra cost. They can effectively turn a 400mm to a 640mm with the APS-C. Add a 1.4 converter and you have a 896mm reach or 1280 with a 2X.

The APS-C brigade have explained why they still want and need one on this very forum many times. Then there is also the EF-S argument mentioned above. My heart won't be broken if they do away with that sensor, I just don't think it's going to happen yet. At least not on the xxD line.

But that "reach" is only because the sensor is smaller. And the optics of the camera are set up for that smaller sensor. As I said before, when EVF's take over optical view finders (yes this will happen eventually), you can still have your "crop" sensor for free, with a crop mode on the EVF and the image being automatically cropped in camera if you want it to.

But I understand that these changes may be a long way off. And for now, yes, the reach thing with aps-c is still valid. So for the time being, aps-c has more use than just cheapness. But when faced with the problem of differentiating dslr's from compact mirrorless, will Canon keep an aps-c around just for "reach"?

 

[D_Rochat]

There could be a market for high MP bodies. But most Nikon wedding photogs I know say they are sticking with the D700. So this market is limited to Landscape and Studio photographers. Most serious studio guys use MF and not many Landscape photographers are money owners. So I am not sure who these High Mp buyers will be.

I've heard the same and the new mkIII makes for the must have wedding body as well, but there's got to be a reason why the D800 is Amazon's top selling camera (not just DSLR) right now. I won't buy a mp monster, but there are people who want them for what ever reason.

 

[maxxevv]

My entry lvl full frame would be...

5dmkii sensor (to cut costs as I'm sure they have decreased manufacturing costs over the years and it's still a wonderful sensor). Alternatively, 1dx or 5d3 sensor, which ever is less expensive to manufacture. Though I think the lower MP 1dx sensor would be more forgiving to cheap lenses.
Rebel quality body with an articulating screen.
Rebel quality AF system
3-4 fps
~96% view finder
EF 28-135mm f/3.5-5.6 IS kit lens; or a new, inexpensive 28 - 85ish mm f3.5 - 5.6 IS lens with silent autofocus
Digic V
Single SD slot
Small rebel level image buffer
pop up flash (with speedlight control)

If all that could be priced for $1600 (or $1250 body only), I suspect consumers would be blown away by the image quality and low light ability as compared to current rebels.

In my opinion, such a camera would place the full frame digital world into the hands of the masses. I have no doubt Best Buy sales people could be instructed to sell all the advantages full frame offers over a crop sensor.

You know, I have almost exactly the same idea !!!

Give and take a few minor differences in overall specifications :

- Everything you'll find in a T4i ( AF, Buffer, SD card, pop-up flash, viewfinder specs, articulated screen etc, etc... )
- In order of probability in sensor used : 5dII, 5DIII, 1DX
- Body size of the 60D
- Limited video 1080p 30fps only (no other options)
- Digic V ( not the '+' version )
- US$1500 (body only)

And it'll turn the market on its head once again like how the original 300D or Rebel did!!!