The State of the Canon Full Frame Mirrorless Development

[Diltiazem]

I don't know what is the fuss about Canon FF mirrorless.
Canon and Nikon sells 6 times more APSC than FF. Sony sells significantly more APSC than FF. And Canon and Nikon sells more FF DSLR than Sony sells FF mirrorless. I mean significantly more, no competition, not even close third. FF mirrorless is a niche market.

With FF cameras and lenses weight and size advantage is virtually lost and this combination is the main draw for mirrorless. One may argue that smaller camera size is actually a disadvantage with bigger lenses. I think overwhelming majority who use FF camera don't worry about size. I know that MILC is not just about size. It's other advantage is EVF, particularly the ability to see the image before it is captured. I doubt that it's really is an advantage when you are able to see the image in less than a second after you have captured it.

There obviously are other advantages of mirrorless, but they have nothing to do with mirrorless FF. They actually have nothing to do with some APSC users, such as 7DII or D500 users. Imagine a 7DII user handling a 100-400 lens with a miniature body.

I think Canon should release an APS-H mirrorless and totally ignore FF mirrorless for the time being. This will have smaller cameras and lenses than FF mirrorless. it will be much easier to cover 100% of the frame with DPAF. It will be much easier to do 4K or 8K without producing as much heat as FF.

Canon can make a mirrorless 6D. But I don't see any reason they should make 5D, 1Dx or 7D mirrorless. Mirrorless is for M mount and smaller cameras. Rest is just hype.

 

[C-A430]

I just want to know if it's the EF mount or not. Because as soon as they announce EF is dead, it'll be the Canopolypse. Can you imagine the value of everyone's gear dropping overnight?

So you're saying that announcing a new mount for a FF MILC camera is synonymous with announcing the end of EF lens production? There are some effective antipsychotic pharmaceutical agents available, perhaps you should consult a physician.

Neuro, I am afraid YOU might be the one living in a dream, not him. Since they started EF-M lens line-up Canon hasn't made any EF-S lenses (actually they released new kit lenses and a f3.5 macro)

Canon will not stop making EF lenses right away, but they will likely release fewer new lens releases starting 2020. They can make a nice profit selling current lens line-up and update only bodies and holy-trinity-zooms. They will release few more before 5DV, to impove 5D/1D sales by hiding the fact that they cant maintain 4 lens mounts in declining market as good as they did 1-and-a-half (EF+EF-s) back in the 2000s. And then? Who says EF will keep getting new lenses and not just updates for high-sales zooms and telephoto zooms?

Also...

I predicted that Canons next mount will either be for curved sensors mirrorless, medium-format mirrorless or FF/mirrorless/DPAF/global-shutter.

If new Canon cameras have sensors that are curved or DPAF + global-shutter or EF-S mount (to use the extra space for special wide lenses) than I made an incredible prophecy.

I was probably just plain wrong. If this was mount for lenses for curved sensors, we would know by now. Confusion about how does the mount work supports the EF-S + FF + mirrorless idea, but...

 

[AvTvM]

Re: Mount logic

While it is conceivable that APS-C DSLRs could someday disappear, I doubt it will be in my lifetime.

ouch! I sincerely hope you will live and prosper many, many years after the last new APS-C DSLR is made by one of the remaining last 3 manufacturers (Canon, Nikon, Ricoh/Pentax). It will happen rather soon. Mirrorslappers are in their terminal stage, especially those with crop sensors.

After that your only hope for APS-C mirrorslappers will be the likes of Yongnuo and assorted Chinese copycats or the usual kickstarter rip-offs, quite possibly even branded "Polaroid", "Kodak" or "Nokia" ;D

 

[AvTvM]

Neuro, I am afraid YOU might be the one living in a dream, not him. Since they started EF-M lens line-up Canon hasn't made any EF-S lenses other than a few minor updates to basic kit lenses and a macro lens.

Canon will not stop making EF lenses right away, but they will likely release fewer new lens releases starting 2020. They can make a nice profit selling current lens line-up and update only bodies and holy-trinity-zooms. They will release few more before 5DV, to improve 5D/1D sales by hiding the fact that they cant maintain 4 lens mounts in declining market as good as they did 1-and-a-half (EF+EF-s) back in the 2000s. And then? Who says EF will keep getting new lenses and not just updates for high-sales zooms and telephoto zooms?

+1 exactly

Canon will move from one 1 FF mount [EF] and a very limited lineup of crop lenses [EF-S] half mounts [EF + 1/2 EF-S] during the past mirrorslapper era to exactly the same setup in the mirrorless era. Full line-up of FF-capable lenses, optimized for mirrorless cameras ["EF-X"] plus limited line-up of very compact consumer/prosumer crop lenses, optimized for mirrorless camerasd [EF-M]

EF -> EF-X [coming soon]
EF-S -> EF-M [done]

everything else makes very little sense.

 

[neuroanatomist]

I just want to know if it's the EF mount or not. Because as soon as they announce EF is dead, it'll be the Canopolypse. Can you imagine the value of everyone's gear dropping overnight?

So you're saying that announcing a new mount for a FF MILC camera is synonymous with announcing the end of EF lens production? There are some effective antipsychotic pharmaceutical agents available, perhaps you should consult a physician.

Neuro, I am afraid YOU might be the one living in a dream, not him. Since they started EF-M lens line-up Canon hasn't made any EF-S lenses (actually they released new kit lenses and a f3.5 macro)

Sorry, no. I live in the real world. In that world, following the introduction of the EF-M mount, Canon has launched the:

• EF-S 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 IS STM
• EF-S 55-250mm f/4-5.6 IS STM
• EF-S 10-18mm f/4.5-5.6 IS STM
• EF-S 24mm f/2.8 STM
• EF-S 18-135mm f/3.5-5.6 IS NanoUSM
• EF-S 35mm f/2.8 Macro IS STM

So, that's 6 EF-S lenses released over a time period with 7 EF-M lenses launched. The introduced EF-S lenses are a near-perfect match to the EF-M lens counterparts, the only exception being the M15-45mm, suggesting that the EF-S lenses are just as important to the overall lineup as the EF-M lenses (which of course they are, since dSLRs still significantly outsell MILCs). Also, the EF-S 35mm macro is the most recently released APS-C format lens. Of course, all of that happened in the real world. I'm not sure which world you live in…

I've heard it sucks when facts and reality yank the rug out from underneath the feet of your argument. I hope the fall doesn't hurt too badly.

Neuro, I am afraid YOU might be the one living in a dream, not him. Since they started EF-M lens line-up Canon hasn't made any EF-S lenses other than a few minor updates to basic kit lenses and a macro lens.

+1 exactly

Utterly unsurprising that you would agree with the above statement. I know which world you live in, and it clearly has no overlap with reality. You wouldn't know a fact if it bit you on the ass.

 

[jolyonralph]

Once you go faster than f/2 and longer 50mm, stuff gets 'EF big' because physics. As Sony has shown, the rest of the lenses will be just about like for like size/lengthwise with their current EF counterparts.

You are of course forgetting one important thing that Canon's own patents have strongly hinted at. Diffractive Optics.

Still, the vast majority of the world's photos are shot between the equivalent focal lengths of 24-50mm. And you don't always need to shoot faster than f/2.8 - so why carry a huge heavy lens and camera around on those days you don't need to do that?

I don't expect an 85mm f/1.2 lens to be any lighter for the new system - in fact I don't expect to be using anything other than the existing lens with an adaptor. But just because YOU don't see a need for smaller, lighter lenses doesn't mean everyone else feels the same.

I take photos because I enjoy taking photos. And sometimes I enjoy it so much more when I have a simple lightweight camera with a good prime lens on it. If your style of photography means you need the 24-70 f/2.8 is stuck on your camera every day then I feel sorry for you.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Still, the vast majority of the world's photos are shot between the equivalent focal lengths of 24-50mm.

But, only a very tiny minority of the world's photos are shot using full frame sensors…and that is the issue under consideration here.

 

[3kramd5]

I predicted that Canons next mount will either be for curved sensors mirrorless, medium-format mirrorless or FF/mirrorless/DPAF/global-shutter.

If new Canon cameras have sensors that are curved or DPAF + global-shutter or EF-S mount (to use the extra space for special wide lenses) than I made an incredible prophecy.

You predicted something about a mount which isn’t mount-specific, and will then claim victory for prophecy if new canon cameras use an old mount.

Cool cool.

 

[Canoneer]

It wouldn't hurt Canon to debut a fixed lens full-frame mirrorless like the Sony RX1R, or the Leica Q. They could conceivably undercut the competition from a pricing standpoint by a huge margin if they used the 6D II sensor and a mirrorless variant of the 40mm F/2.8 STM. It could essentially become the Canonet QL18.

 

[3kramd5]

It wouldn't hurt Canon to debut a fixed lens full-frame mirrorless like the Sony RX1R, or the Leica Q. They could conceivably undercut the competition from a pricing standpoint by a huge margin if they used the 6D II sensor and a mirrorless variant of the 40mm F/2.8 STM. It could essentially become the Canonet QL18.

Do you have information about the internal cost of sensors? Not sure why the 6D2 sensor would cost Canon significantly less than the IMX251 (presumably in the RX1R ii) costs Sony, who has been producing it since 2005. BSI might cost more for tooling, but those costs were possibly amortized.

 

[jolyonralph]

I predicted that Canons next mount will either be for curved sensors mirrorless, medium-format mirrorless or FF/mirrorless/DPAF/global-shutter.

If new Canon cameras have sensors that are curved or DPAF + global-shutter or EF-S mount (to use the extra space for special wide lenses) than I made an incredible prophecy.

I predict that Canon's next mount may be the same, or different to the current mounts. If the mount will be used to attach a lens to the camera body then I made an incredible prophecy too.

 

[AvTvM]

I predict that Canon's next mount may be the same, or different to the current mounts. If the mount will be used to attach a lens to the camera body then I made an incredible prophecy too.

LOL ;D

 

[sanj]

I was involved in the development of Aperture by Apple before it was released as a Beta to the public. There was a time when Apple worked closer with the professional community for input. This never meant that we told them what we wanted and they gave us the requests, it meant that they developed a strategy and then asked us on a professional level if it would improve our workflow.

I hope Canon has taken this approach, because from a professional point of view, Sony is dead. They make some incredible ENG capable professional video cameras, and they're slowly moving their mirrorless line into the professional realm. I've had so many positive experiences with Canon when it comes to replacing or repairing equipment. Their center in Burbank has taken huge strides in catering towards us, and it's really helping people make the decision to use Canon on their projects. Honestly, if anyone wants to create a long term relationship with professionals, they must use Canon as their model. It has become easy for us to switch platforms, especially as expensive equipment is being used on a rental basis.

There are several major features that I would love to see in the next EOS series. Things like synchronizing multiple cameras through an app (time-lapse or multicam shooting), an improved file system on the camera (similar to smart folders that organize by location or date), bringing back Eye Control AF (like on the EOS 3), a basic ability to copy camera settings to a card, and applying them to a B or C camera, even if they are a lower model, and the ability to override the EXIF data for lenses that are attached but have no readout. Most of these aren't big changes, but they're a handful of things that would save me a tremendous amount of time with the style of travel shooting that I do for work.

Super post.

 

[Canoneer]

It wouldn't hurt Canon to debut a fixed lens full-frame mirrorless like the Sony RX1R, or the Leica Q. They could conceivably undercut the competition from a pricing standpoint by a huge margin if they used the 6D II sensor and a mirrorless variant of the 40mm F/2.8 STM. It could essentially become the Canonet QL18.

Do you have information about the internal cost of sensors? Not sure why the 6D2 sensor would cost Canon significantly less than the IMX251 (presumably in the RX1R ii) costs Sony, who has been producing it since 2005. BSI might cost more for tooling, but those costs were possibly amortized.

Nope, no insider information on sensor costs, just observation of MSRP on relevant models. Canon sells the 6D II for $2000 ($1700 at promo), and the 40mm F/2.8 STM for $180; and those are sold at profit. Mirrorless cameras are less complicated and less expensive than DSLRs for manufacture because they have fewer mechanical parts and don't require expensive pentaprisms.

And if Canon were to increase the yield of the 6D II sensor because they were putting it in other models, the cost would go down even further. If they priced it at $1799, that still undercuts the RX1R II by $1500, and the Leica Q by $2500.

 

[ahsanford]

It wouldn't hurt Canon to debut a fixed lens full-frame mirrorless like the Sony RX1R, or the Leica Q. They could conceivably undercut the competition from a pricing standpoint by a huge margin if they used the 6D II sensor and a mirrorless variant of the 40mm F/2.8 STM. It could essentially become the Canonet QL18.

If Canon does this (and they may), they will go premium and chase the wealthy crowd like Sony's RX1R II and Leica's Q did.

- A

 

[ahsanford]

And if Canon were to increase the yield of the 6D II sensor because they were putting it in other models, the cost would go down even further. If they priced it at $1799, that still undercuts the RX1R II by $1500, and the Leica Q by $2500.

Sigma would do that. Canon wouldn't. They don't leave that kind of meat on the bone margins-wise. Hell, even Sony -- known to offer a ton of tech/feature/value for the price -- still had the stones to ask north of $3k for theirs.

If Canon offers one of these, expect a $3k offering. Keep in mind that they need to design a one-off FF lens with a leaf shutter that can't possibly have high volumes.

- A

 

[jolyonralph]

If Canon were to put a 6D II sensor in their flagship new mirrorless I'll happily join the "Stupid Canon" chorus.

The 6D II was a disappointment with poor dynamic range at low ISO. It's great at low-light, as the original 6D was, but it's far from competitive as a landscape photography camera for example.

Canon has to do better than that for their flagship mirrorless offering. I would think the 5DIV sensor would be the minimum they should put in it.

 

[ahsanford]

If Canon were to put a 6D II sensor in their flagship new mirrorless I'll happily join the "Stupid Canon" chorus.

The 6D II was a disappointment with poor dynamic range at low ISO. It's great at low-light, as the original 6D was, but it's far from competitive as a landscape photography camera for example.

Canon has to do better than that for their flagship mirrorless offering. I would think the 5DIV sensor would be the minimum they should put in it.

+1, but I'd say 5D4-like, not necessarily 30 MP. Canon's first FF mirrorless could simply be a market-parity 24 MP on-chip ADC sensor -- the 6D2 sensor we should have gotten, if you will.

- A

 

[neuroanatomist]

It wouldn't hurt Canon to debut a fixed lens full-frame mirrorless like the Sony RX1R, or the Leica Q. They could conceivably undercut the competition from a pricing standpoint by a huge margin if they used the 6D II sensor and a mirrorless variant of the 40mm F/2.8 STM. It could essentially become the Canonet QL18.

Give it the 5DIV sensor and an f/2 lens, and I'd be tempted.

 

[C-A430]

I predicted that Canons next mount will either be for curved sensors mirrorless, medium-format mirrorless or FF/mirrorless/DPAF/global-shutter.

If new Canon cameras have sensors that are curved or DPAF + global-shutter or EF-S mount (to use the extra space for special wide lenses) than I made an incredible prophecy.

I predict that Canon's next mount may be the same, or different to the current mounts. If the mount will be used to attach a lens to the camera body then I made an incredible prophecy too.

I was convinced Canon will not do FF mirrorless the way all you mirrorless lovers want it to (take 5DIV and pack it into 6D body with EF-X mount). I thought they will wait to add a next big technology to it. I even specified technologies I find most likely ones.

You take these technologies very lightly. Do you have any curved sensors cameras? Any cameras with global shutter? Do you own a mirrorless camera with film-era mount that can take mirrorless specific lenses?

It is harder to go wide with crop than FF, so just going mirrorless is big on its own for EF-M. Not as much for full frame, since it doesnt assist you as much when going wide. Mirrorless version of 5Dm4 is much more boring than it may appear. Also this time Sony will be ahead in sensor technology, lens line-up and marketing.