Prosumer Level Canon Mirrorless Camera to Have 4K [CR2]

[takesome1]

However, in my opinion thet underestimated the potential and (even more) the appeal of mirrorless cameras (and 4k Video), and I hope that they are not going to be the Nokia of the camera business in a couple of years. The iPhone was a disruptive force in the smartphone market, and some Nokia managers still wonder, what went wrong.

I think your off with this statement.
It is probably more proper timing and technical level than being late.

From an interview of Mr. Go Tokura

Dual Pixel AF is a technology which has huge potential for mirrorless cameras. A lot of our readers are still very hopeful for future Canon enthusiast mirrorless models. Is there anything that you would like to say to them?

Obviously I can’t be particularly concrete when talking about our future product planning, but this is something that we are looking at. Something that is under consideration. There are some features, such as AF, which have not yet caught up with DSLRs, so given the current state of affairs it would be a little unrealistic to say that we will suddenly start offering a professional mirrorless camera. There’s still a performance gap that needs to be addressed.

If we assume that at some point in the future Canon will create an enthusiast or professional mirrorless camera, what are your benchmarks?

This is just my personal opinion. In my view there are two key features that have to be addressed. The first is autofocus, particularly tracking of moving subjects. The other is the viewfinder. The electronic viewfinder would have to offer a certain standard. If those two functions were to match the performance of EOS DSLR camera performance, we might make the switch.

Tremendous progress has been made in electronic systems. However in terms of AF, pro-level AF functions, and the range of shooting situations that professional photographers can respond to, there’s still a gap between DSLRs and mirrorless systems.
http://www.dpreview.com/interviews/0533836703/cp-plus-canon-interview-important-to-increase-development-speed

 

[Diltiazem]

Canon's sales are shrinking, their market share is shrinking, too, just like the whole camera market is shrinking. The only segment that is growing is the segment of mirrorless cameras. Add that about 1-2 years ago we heard (I think it was here, at CR) that Canon wasn*t too happy with 6D sales. Now, as business man; what would you conclude?

[CITATION NEEDED]

Of course::

Canon Releases Q3 2015 Results (10/2015)
http://www.canonrumors.com/page/40/

CANON ANNUAL REPORT 2014, page 14f.
http://www.canon.com/ir/annual/2014/canon-annual-report-2014.pdf


And a few unauthorized sources:

REFILE-UPDATE 1-Canon Q3 profit slides on weak camera demand but full-year forecast lifted (10/2014)
http://www.reuters.com/article/canon-results-idUSL4N0SM25K20141027

Canon destroys Nikon in DSLR marketshare for 2010 (4/2011)
http://www.canonrumors.com/canon-destroys-nikon-in-dslr-marketshare/

Canon and Nikon Japanese market share declines (9/2011)
http://www.techradar.com/news/photography-video-capture/cameras/canon-and-nikon-japanese-market-share-declines-1019035

The Market for Interchangeable Lens Cameras (2/2015)
http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/the-market-for-interchangea.html

What is the market share between Canon and Nikon in the US? (5/2013)
http://photo.stackexchange.com/questions/39351/what-is-the-market-share-between-canon-and-nikon-in-the-us

Report Claims Only Nikon, Canon and Sony Will Survive the Smartphone Revolution (12/2013)
http://petapixel.com/2013/12/30/report-claims-nikon-canon-sony-will-survive-smartphone-revolution/

gargamel

You made few claims.
1. Canon's sales are falling.
2. Canon's market share is falling.
3. 6D isn't selling well.
4. Mirrorless market is growing.

#1 is true.

#2 is false.
Worldwide data for 2015 isn't available yet, but data for Japan market is available.
DSLR: http://www.bcnranking.jp/award/section/hard/hard102.html
You can see Canon's market share has grown

Mirrorless: http://www.bcnranking.jp/award/section/hard/hard94.html
Again Canon's market share has grown and for the first time they are in #3 position.

#3. Your claim is based on a CR1 rumor. It is hard to know how many 6D Canon is selling. But if you look at the best sellers at Amazon and B&H you will see that it is among the best sellers. It is possible that Canon sold less 6D than they hoped for, but it is still selling very well.

#4
The best year for mirrorless was 2012, 4 million cameras were shipped according to CIPA figures. According to the same source 3.2 million mirrorless cameras were shipped last year (better than 3.1 million shipped in 2014). Would you say mirrorless market is growing? It actually has become stagnant.

A lot of people including leading industry analysts have been wrong about mirrorless cameras potential. For example, in 2012 IDC predicted that by 2014 mirrorless sales volume will reach 14 million. How wrong they were!

 

[rrcphoto]

Canon's sales are shrinking, their market share is shrinking, too, just like the whole camera market is shrinking. The only segment that is growing is the segment of mirrorless cameras. Add that about 1-2 years ago we heard (I think it was here, at CR) that Canon wasn*t too happy with 6D sales. Now, as business man; what would you conclude?

[CITATION NEEDED]

Of course::

Canon Releases Q3 2015 Results (10/2015)
http://www.canonrumors.com/page/40/

CANON ANNUAL REPORT 2014, page 14f.
http://www.canon.com/ir/annual/2014/canon-annual-report-2014.pdf


And a few unauthorized sources:

REFILE-UPDATE 1-Canon Q3 profit slides on weak camera demand but full-year forecast lifted (10/2014)
http://www.reuters.com/article/canon-results-idUSL4N0SM25K20141027

Canon destroys Nikon in DSLR marketshare for 2010 (4/2011)
http://www.canonrumors.com/canon-destroys-nikon-in-dslr-marketshare/

Canon and Nikon Japanese market share declines (9/2011)
http://www.techradar.com/news/photography-video-capture/cameras/canon-and-nikon-japanese-market-share-declines-1019035

The Market for Interchangeable Lens Cameras (2/2015)
http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/the-market-for-interchangea.html

What is the market share between Canon and Nikon in the US? (5/2013)
http://photo.stackexchange.com/questions/39351/what-is-the-market-share-between-canon-and-nikon-in-the-us

Report Claims Only Nikon, Canon and Sony Will Survive the Smartphone Revolution (12/2013)
http://petapixel.com/2013/12/30/report-claims-nikon-canon-sony-will-survive-smartphone-revolution/

gargamel

You made few claims.
1. Canon's sales are falling.
2. Canon's market share is falling.
3. 6D isn't selling well.
4. Mirrorless market is growing.

#1 is true.

#2 is false.
Worldwide data for 2015 isn't available yet, but data for Japan market is available.
DSLR: http://www.bcnranking.jp/award/section/hard/hard102.html
You can see Canon's market share has grown

Mirrorless: http://www.bcnranking.jp/award/section/hard/hard94.html
Again Canon's market share has grown and for the first time they are in #3 position.

#3. Your claim is based on a CR1 rumor. It is hard to know how many 6D Canon is selling. But if you look at the best sellers at Amazon and B&H you will see that it is among the best sellers. It is possible that Canon sold less 6D than they hoped for, but it is still selling very well.

#4
The best year for mirrorless was 2012, 4 million cameras were shipped according to CIPA figures. According to the same source 3.2 million mirrorless cameras were shipped last year (better than 3.1 million shipped in 2014). Would you say mirrorless market is growing? It actually has become stagnant.

A lot of people including leading industry analysts have been wrong about mirrorless cameras potential. For example, in 2012 IDC predicted that by 2014 mirrorless sales volume will reach 14 million. How wrong they were!

also to add to this.

in 2012-14 Sony scaled down and stopped shipping somewhere around 2 million SLT's.

from 2012 to 2015, CIPA shows a less than 5% growth rate in marketshare in Mirrorless versus DSLR's.

however that does not take into account Sony scaling back SLT shipments. at their highest point they had around a 13% marketshare.

just taken into account the scale back of SLT shipments is around 6% shift of marketshare. which is MORE than mirrorless has grown in that same period of time.

predominantly, what seems to be happening based up the above - is that the people that are purchasing mirrorless are continuing to purchase mirrorless, and for the most part the leakage from DSLR's to Mirrorless is pretty low.

another thing that people don't consider is that there is approximately three times the vendors for mirrorless as there is for DSLR. On average there are 3-4 times the releases of Mirrorless versus SLR's.

CIPA is reporting shipments, it's nothing unusual for vendors to mass ship initially and then dwindle off after that. if that is the case, then it's stands to reason that mirrorless shipments "appear" more consistent.

 

[Schwingi]

Finally Canon will enter the mirrorless market. I hope they do it with a bang!!! Nice specs and good battery capacity/performance.

 

[slclick]

Finally Canon will enter the mirrorless market. I hope they do it with a bang!!! Nice specs and good battery capacity/performance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canon_EOS_M

 

[Nininini]

that makes no sense, I shoot 4k on my panasonic all....the..... time

being able to grab 8k stills is amazing

It's like having an 8k camera doing NON-STOP 30fps burst

People dimissing 4k, have never used it.

What sort of display are you using to view those 8K images and those 4K videos?

My Benq monitor, IPS 1080P screen.

You don't need a 4k screen to grab stills from a 4k video. It's going to be a 8 megapixel still regardless of your screen resolution.

All you need is a cheap video program that allows you to take a snapshot of a video.

In Corel Video Studio go to Edit..Take a Snapshot.

In Adobe Premiere Elements go to Tools....Freeze Frame.


you can also adjust the settings:

4k video is powerful for several reasons:

video:
-it's 4k, duh, video will look nicer
-video downsampled to 1080P also looks nicer since the 4k source has more detail
-you can easily stabilize 4k video into 1080P video, since you have a massive border to work with
-you can use 4k as a zoom for 1080P video

stills:
-taking snapshots from 4k video is great, it results in 8 megapixel pictures that are full of detail
-it's like shooting non-stop 30FPS burst in 8 megapixel, you no longer miss the moment you wanted
-unlike shooting burst stills, it doesn't tax your mirror or curtain, eventually a cameras mirror and curtain gives up, shooting burst all the time will eventually break either your mirror or curtain, video will not do that because both the mirror and curtain are open as long as you do video
-it's completely quiet, you're not scaring animals or people, unlike with a 15FPS mirror slap that scares away everyone, draws massive attention and sounds like a machine gun

 

[Haydn1971]

Three new mirrorless ?

That's a lot of EOS-M product ! My guess would be a midrange replacement to the EOS-M4, plus a higher end EOS-M with hopefully some nice primes. Third one ? I'm hopeful of a full frame in a SL1 type body using EF lenses.

Bring it one... But mostly the M primes please

 

[gargamel]

However, in my opinion thet underestimated the potential and (even more) the appeal of mirrorless cameras (and 4k Video), and I hope that they are not going to be the Nokia of the camera business in a couple of years. The iPhone was a disruptive force in the smartphone market, and some Nokia managers still wonder, what went wrong.

I think your off with this statement.
It is probably more proper timing and technical level than being late.

From an interview of Mr. Go Tokura

Dual Pixel AF is a technology which has huge potential for mirrorless cameras. [...]

If f understand you correctly, you are just re-phrasing what I was going to say. So I agree with you: The right timing is key to success (combined with or based on technical level, as you put it correctly). Early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse takes the cheese.

I know this interview with Mr. Tokura you quote, and he's quite right, and said this in another post in this thread: DPAF is probably the greatest innovation from Canon in recent years, but it's highly underrated. (Ok, Canon's fault, as they don't market it that well...).
I said it in a previous post: Some folks complain about Canon's decision to stick with FHD in the 80D instead of adding 4K video capabilities. Personally I think they made the right decision. A well-implemented FHD video section with DPAF makes more sense than a half-assed 4K implementation.

gargamel

 

[gargamel]

You arbitrarily mix and match figures from various sources and market shares, i.e. percentages, with absolute sales figures. This is a bit confusing. Let's get things straight a bit, again, please.

[...]

You made few claims.
1. Canon's sales are falling.
2. Canon's market share is falling.
3. 6D isn't selling well.
4. Mirrorless market is growing.
#1 is true.

Yes, but it has become evident in this discussion that, with the exception of companies like Fujifilm, just about everyone else in this business is suffering, too.

#2 is false.
Worldwide data for 2015 isn't available yet, but data for Japan market is available.
DSLR: http://www.bcnranking.jp/award/section/hard/hard102.html
You can see Canon's market share has grown

Please provide evidence that this holds for the global markets. My "claim" may not apply to Japan. However, Japan is a very special market and all the publications you are referring to make it quite clear that Japan definitely not representative for the global markets.

Mirrorless: http://www.bcnranking.jp/award/section/hard/hard94.html
Again Canon's market share has grown and for the first time they are in #3 position.

Well, the link goes to a Japanes page, but I think I saw an English translation of it before, As far as I can tell, you are, again, mixing up things. This figure is only for the Japanese mirrorless camera market. It doesn't include DSLRs, and it's, again, only applicable for Japan, not for the global markets.

#3. Your claim is based on a CR1 rumor. It is hard to know how many 6D Canon is selling. But if you look at the best sellers at Amazon and B&H you will see that it is among the best sellers. It is possible that Canon sold less 6D than they hoped for, but it is still selling very well.

Please define "selling very well". It seems that Canon's definition of good sales is not based on rankings, but on actual sales. It's nice that you think that the 6D sells very well, but it's wishfull thinking. Canon saw it differently, a while ago. The 6D may be popular now, but only after Canon lowered the price. So they can't be all-too happy, as low sales like low prices both mean less profit.
It doesn't matter that the camera is more popular than competing products among the customers of one popular web shop, because if that shop sells just one 6D and no other cameras, it's going to be ranked #1. Right?

#4
The best year for mirrorless was 2012, 4 million cameras were shipped according to CIPA figures. According to the same source 3.2 million mirrorless cameras were shipped last year (better than 3.1 million shipped in 2014). Would you say mirrorless market is growing? It actually has become stagnant.

Well, in your response to #1 you confirmed that the mirrorless market ist growing...., and you were right with that, because: Absolute sales figures seem to have been stagnant for a while, but DSLR sales have dropped at the same time. Now, it's simple arithmetic: Abolute figures for mirrorless are stagnat, absolute figures for DSLRs decrease. I guess, it's obvious to anyone that this *must* mean, that the market share of mirrorless cameras is increasing. I cannot say, how Canon is affected by that development. Let's wait for CIPA to publish the numbers for 2015, as this will be highly interesting.

Or even better: Let's get out and shoot! It's almost spring time!

gargamel

But don't let this point stretch too far, and wait for CIPA to publish the figures for 2015.

A lot of people including leading industry analysts have been wrong about mirrorless cameras potential. For example, in 2012 IDC predicted that by 2014 mirrorless sales volume will reach 14 million. How wrong they were!

Let's see, how this all is going to go, and what Canon will come up with. Mirrorless or not: I am looking forward to the camera that will succeed the 6D. A few more cross-type AF sensors, slightly increased focus speed, a 100% view finder, plus a slighlty lighter and smaller body would be on my wishlist.

gargamel

 

[neuroanatomist]

First, I would conclude that I would fire you if you were my data analyst. Second, I would note that Canon's imaging unit has been consistently profitable for over a decade, so they probably know more about how the market moves than anyone on this forum.

+1, but then smurf society is basically a barter economy so probably the real fiscal world is a little confusing for gargamel...

 

[AvTvM]

Oh wow, the assembled Canon Defense League at full swing again! Flapping and slapping, legt and right, smoke and ... mirrors.

Does not change the facts though:
• 2016, and Canon (and Nikon) have no competitive mirrorless camera system in their product portfolio yet
• 2016, and Canon has no 4k video except in one expensive ILC
• therefore many people buy Sony, Fuji and mFT products
• once customers have switched brand to another system, it is very hard to win them back

Conclusion
• current product strategy "less than optimal" for Canon

Risks
• Nokia, Kodak, Hasselblad

 

[Hillsilly]

Except that the Eos M has been competitive (if you look at sales figures).

But with every extra Fuji lens or accessory that I buy, returning to Canon get's a little harder. But a prosumer camera sounds like they are on the right track. Hopefully they'll make some desirable lenses, too.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Except that the Eos M has been competitive (if you look at sales figures).

Lol, yes but AvTvM defines 'competitive' as 'something I personally like'. Please don't bother him with facts and data, those things make his little noggin hurt worse than a mirrorslap to the back of the head.

After all, Canon is 3rd in MILC market share (a smaller segment in which they haven't strongly invested), and the clear leader in the overall ILC market. But, of course, AvTvM knows more about market strategy than they do... :

Conclusion: he's a card-carrying member of the anti-reality league.

 

[scyrene]

stills:
-taking snapshots from 4k video is great, it results in 8 megapixel pictures that are full of detail
-it's like shooting non-stop 30FPS burst in 8 megapixel, you no longer miss the moment you wanted

Overall your points are well made. However, for balance, it's worth pointing out a few caveats (once again). The stills from a video are only useful if they aren't motion blurred. As has been said many times in many places, in general for smooth video, exposure times of <1/100sec are preferred per frame. For some subjects, with no camera movement, this would be fine. But for moving subjects especially, many of the frames will be blurred and therefore of no use for extraction as a still image. This can be solved by shooting video with shorter exposure times (say, 1/1000 per frame), but that leads to footage that looks jagged or stilted. Tl;dr: there's no such thing as a free lunch. Either you have good footage that's poor for stills extraction, or good stills from poor footage.

Incidentally, 'full of detail' is relative. A raw still of the same resolution will likely always be superior. Not to say an extracted still won't be good enough for some purposes - it just won't be for others.

 

[scyrene]

Does not change the facts though:
• 2016, and Canon has no 4k video except in one expensive ILC
• therefore many people buy Sony, Fuji and mFT products
• once customers have switched brand to another system, it is very hard to win them back

-Since you used the f-word, I ought to correct a few assertions. Canon technically has 4k in at least four ILCs (the 1DC, 1DxII, C300 II and C500).
-Your 'therefore' is misplaced if we're talking about *facts* - can you demonstrate the lack of 4k in cheaper Canon ILCs is the reason for many, let alone most people choosing other brands?
-Your final point works both ways. If those customers are switching one way, why can't they switch back? If it's just one feature (as your earlier points imply) that's won them over?

 

[slclick]

I never understood the bizarre need to continue to visit a place which brings you so much unhappiness. It's truly unhealthy.

 

[Orangutan]

First, I would conclude that I would fire you if you were my data analyst. Second, I would note that Canon's imaging unit has been consistently profitable for over a decade, so they probably know more about how the market moves than anyone on this forum.

+1, but then smurf society is basically a barter economy so probably the real fiscal world is a little confusing for gargamel...

After a night of sleep I wish I had phrased that differently. Though Gargamel misunderstands the data he's citing, he does not appear to be a troll.

 

[Orangutan]

the assembled Canon Defense League

Speaking for myself, I'd switch to a different body if I thought it would be a significant improvement, and would work well with my L-lenses.

Does not change the facts though:

Nor does it change their lack of relevance, e.g.

• 2016, and Canon (and Nikon) have no competitive mirrorless camera system in their product portfolio yet

No one has shown that such a product would be financially beneficial in their portfolio

• 2016, and Canon has no 4k video except in one expensive ILC

While it would be nice to have, I wouldn't trade existing features for it, and no one has shown that such a product would be financially beneficial in their portfolio

• therefore many people buy Sony, Fuji and mFT products

That's the way market economies work: if Canon sold all the gear to all the people they would have a monopoly. At present, ML is minority product (I don't mean that in a disparaging way); when Canon thinks they can make real money from it they'll make a play. It's just business.

Another way to look at it is that "Sony, Fuji and mFT products" are not good enough to take from Canon more than a small fraction of their overall ILC share.

• once customers have switched brand to another system, it is very hard to win them back

It sounds like you're speaking for yourself. If we want to cite personal experience, I know a few people who attempted to switch to Nikon because of the sensors, but switched back because of everything except the sensors.

Conclusion
• current product strategy "less than optimal" for Canon

This is meaningless: you have only show that not having the best in all product categories is "less than optimal" for any market player. This is a trivial, hence meaningless, result. It also fails to account for the cost to participate (i.e. R&D&S) at that level in all product categories.

Risks
• Nokia, Kodak, Hasselblad

Competition is good!!

 

[neuroanatomist]

Though Gargamel misunderstands the data he's citing, he does not appear to be a troll.

Agree with both. I must say, I love that his 'evidence' for Canon's purported disappointment with 6D sales is a CR1 rumor that was reblogged by an Oregon boudoir photographer. Now that's reliable information!

 

[Orangutan]

Though Gargamel misunderstands the data he's citing, he does not appear to be a troll.

Agree with both. I must say, I love that his 'evidence' for Canon's purported disappointment with 6D sales is a CR1 rumor that was reblogged by an Oregon boudoir photographer. Now that's reliable information!

I guess some are able to perceive what is concealed to others. ;D