Of course, Canon knows the sales volume for each which would determine the priority to release a RF version and whether a RF version is warranted at all.These:
The above are all on Canon Japan's list of EF LENS Discontinued Products.
- 28-300L
- 70-300L
- 14/2.8L II
- 15/2.8 fisheye
- 24/1.4L II
- 40/2.8 pancake
- 100/2 (maybe the 85/2 is the replacement, but interestingly the 85/1.8 is not on the discontinued list)
- 200/2L
- 3002/2.8L II (maybe the 100-300/2.8 is the replacement)
- 500/4L IS II
- MP-E 65/2.8
- 180/3.5L Macro
- TS-E 135/4L Macro
- Plus a whole bunch of EF-S lenses for which there's no RF-S replacement
We can only assume that the key EF-M lenses will be repackaged into RF-S lenses but when is a good question.
Assuming the discontinued date is the "updated" date when you click through., it looks like Canon did a clean out during the 2021/2022 covid years. Perhaps due to supply chain issues vs sales. None of these dates were before the R mount was released in 2018.
2021
15/2.8 fisheye (19/3/2021) => unique lens but the EF8-15mm/4 would have covered 99% of the requirements for this one
100/2 (maybe the 85/2 is the replacement, but interestingly the 85/1.8 is not on the discontinued list). (30/3/2021) => I was never sure what was the use case for this one. Maybe 85mm is the new 100mm. The RF100/2.8 and EF macro versions are great portrait lenses
2022 January
70-300L (18/1/2022, 31/3/2021, 31/3/2021) => They weren't great optically. The RF100-300/2.8 covers the focal length if not the price bracket
14/2.8L II (18/1/2022) => expensive for what it was and not great optically for astrolandscapes. I don't think it sold much
28-300L (20/1/2022) => never a big seller and wasn't great optically. I recall seeing only one in the wild
180/3.5L Macro (20/1/2022) => perhaps RF100-400 + 2xTC as you have mentioned before
2022 March
500/4L IS II (29/3/2022) => head scratcher... Maybe the sales volume was so low that 400/600/800 are all that are needed and 600/4 is much more useful than 500/4
40/2.8 pancake (31/3/2022) => replaced with 28/2.8 pancake? same focal length if on APS-c sensors.
200/2L (31/3/2022) => I wonder what the sales volume for this one was. I can't imagine that it was high given the price.
300/2.8L II (maybe the 100-300/2.8 is the replacement) (30/3/2022) => I think that we can safely assume that the RF100-300/2.8 is the replacement
2023 May=> these are very recent... is that telling us something??
24/1.4L II (29/5/2023)
MP-E 65/2.8 (29/5/2023)
TS-E 135/4L Macro (29/5/2023) => I'm not a TS-E user but would consider a TS-E 14mm for architecture and landscapes in the future. What are the longer TS-E lenses used for?
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